COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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three countries have been pretty well prepared, 100+ countries not so well
Three countries have taken a different approach, mainly because of their very close links to China, forcing them to act before they knew what they were facing.

Their approach only gives a good outcome if a vaccine becomes available fairly quickly, which is currently very uncertain; if it does then it will be due to use of the very latest genetic technology, not something that could have been prepared for 5 years ago.

Singapore has now seen a bit of an upturn in cases, maybe their government will now choose to follow the west rather than clamp down further.

We will only find out which was the best approach after either a vaccine becomes available, or they abandon their approach and we can then see the total excess deaths for the year / two years in each country.
 
because they had experience from SARS and learnt from experience
So did Canada, but it is not following the same approach.
 
S Korea only have 50 new cases in a day now (y)
From a quick glance it also appear that the numbers here keep dropping.
 
S Korea only have 50 new cases in a day now (y)
From a quick glance it also appear that the numbers here keep dropping.
Need to be careful of weekend testing for both countries, the numbers may go up again tomorrow.

I do think you have reached the peak now, but you probably have another week with fairly high numbers before it really starts dropping.

For S. Korea, the numbers have been fairly stable for ages, at this rate they will reach the peak in about 2 years time, and with a similar total deaths to the rest of us, unless a vaccine arrives earlier.
 
Finland has gone negative on the new deaths count today, less total deaths than yesterday!
 
These are sad statements on how people are dealing with this crisis.

Snap 2020-04-06 at 15.59.05.png

With skidmarks???
Snap 2020-04-06 at 15.55.59.png
 
Yes it would seem so.
Who is the stand in for Boris if he need to go on a ventilator ?
 
Engineering update on the Tesla ventilator

Seems rather complex but apparently they are trying to create a device to treat the sickest of patients (and move them intrahospital without having to be connected to mains power).

 
Their approach only gives a good outcome if a vaccine becomes available fairly quickly

I can't see the logic in this- if fewer lives are lost and fewer cases are happening per capita, then the approach must be succeeding. If you're still clinging to the 'herd immunity' approach you might want to ask your PM Johnson how he feels about that right now. There's every chance that acquired immunity could be short-lived and we end up with another pandemic of the exact same thing next year. Only a cure, vaccine, or both can bring us an assured end to this particular virus.

We will only find out which was the best approach after either a vaccine becomes available, or they abandon their approach and we can then see the total excess deaths for the year / two years in each country.

If we're going to judge this later on then anything now is speculative. The virus could recur, mutate, or just disappear from the big picture. or maybe even disappear altogether. Thing is that we still don't know enough about this kind of disease to make any solid predictions about it. Only with it's ending will answers emerge. And at that time, I do hope the world's Governments will plan better for the next virus epidemic/pandemic because it is coming.

The Governor of my State finally grew some "cojones" as the Latino's say and issued something of a "Stay at home" order. But you can still go to work (if your business is open- many have been ordered closed) and you can still get groceries, go outside to exercise, go to church, or to get needed medical supplies/treatments for humans or pets. A misdemeanor and a $100 fine if you fail to comply (which will come later as even the Courts are almost completely shut down). So what will really happen? Anyone outside will say they're going to or from work, or they're grocery shopping. And some other "WTF?" things here: All State-controlled lakes are closed, but the landings belong to the Federal government at many of them, and those haven't been shut down so you can still launch your boat but you can't go fishing or swimming from it. And of the list of businesses being ordered to close, nothing has been said of construction (but needed home repairs have been specifically allowed, and nothing has been said of Uber/Lift cars, nor has anything been said of lawncare or many other businesses. Probably 30+ types of businesses specifically named as needing to close, but there's plenty more types which could bring close personal contacts. Would have probably been better to list the allowed businesses instead. Department stores must close, but Walmart can remain open though they can only sell necessities like food, medicine and personal care stuff. Sporting goods stores must close, but gun shops can stay open. Of any open businesses, only 5 people allowed per 1000SqFt or 20% of allowed capacity whichever is smallest, and stores are responsible to make sure everyone inside maintains at least 6ft distance between each other.

Most of the grocery stores here have set aside an hour per day once or twice a week for elderly customers only, usually the first hour they're open. At 60 years old I'm eligible for that but I'm not liking being called 'elderly' just yet. Still I'm going in the morning for some food with hopes of snagging a little more TP and paper towels to keep the stock here from running out. We're all country and mountain folk here so we know how to do without if we have to, but it's nice to have if you can get it. And hoping the hardware store is open to get a few things to finish up some of the projects going on. While it's almost certain to be safe eating to-go (takeaway) food I've been avoiding that for 3 weeks just to be certain I know my food is safe, but it's SO tempting to grab something while I'm out. Also some chance of heavy/severe thunderstorms here tomorrow so I might be stuck inside for the weather, but I'm glad to be so far from 'the world' that I am free to go outside on the property freely without worry of catching anything or getting a citation for being out. It's a beautiful quiet night with a hazy full moon letting you see among the trees almost as if it were daytime- kind of hard taking all that in knowing the world is hurting not so far away.

Phil
 
I can't see the logic in this- if fewer lives are lost and fewer cases are happening per capita, then the approach must be succeeding.
The only big difference is the time over which the cases occur. In Denmark it will be almost over 2 months from the start, with just a few outbreaks to be tracked down and eliminated, which will be easy to do since it will be spreading very slowly due to the amount of immunity. In South Korea, at the current rate it will take them 3 years to reach the same point, and although not many people are getting infected/dying each day, the numbers add up, and by the end will be roughly the same. Their restrictions mean that it will die out at a slightly lower level of immunity, but it will probably affect the entire population since you can't keep your elderly completely locked up and isolated from family for 3 years. If you can get the infection rate low enough then yes, you can save lives, but you need China's level of lockdown to achieve that, and South Korea is a long way from that. The only reason that most countries currently have a lockdown is to reduce the infection rate to one that the hospitals can cope with. Even if you don't believe in herd immunity, it is a fact that people are becoming immune and that immunity is the reason that new infection numbers and deaths are now dropping in most European countries. This is not flu, it is a coronavirus, and coronaviruses take many years before they come back again, if they come back at all, SARS has not, and by then it is quite likely that we will have a vaccine.

New cases in Spain, now clearly falling, due to increasing immunity:
1586251775330.png
 
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I can't see the logic in this- if fewer lives are lost and fewer cases are happening per capita, then the approach must be succeeding. If you're still clinging to the 'herd immunity' approach you might want to ask your PM Johnson how he feels about that right now. There's every chance that acquired immunity could be short-lived and we end up with another pandemic of the exact same thing next year. Only a cure, vaccine, or both can bring us an assured end to this particular virus.



If we're going to judge this later on then anything now is speculative. The virus could recur, mutate, or just disappear from the big picture. or maybe even disappear altogether. Thing is that we still don't know enough about this kind of disease to make any solid predictions about it. Only with it's ending will answers emerge. And at that time, I do hope the world's Governments will plan better for the next virus epidemic/pandemic because it is coming.

The Governor of my State finally grew some "cojones" as the Latino's say and issued something of a "Stay at home" order. But you can still go to work (if your business is open- many have been ordered closed) and you can still get groceries, go outside to exercise, go to church, or to get needed medical supplies/treatments for humans or pets. A misdemeanor and a $100 fine if you fail to comply (which will come later as even the Courts are almost completely shut down). So what will really happen? Anyone outside will say they're going to or from work, or they're grocery shopping. And some other "WTF?" things here: All State-controlled lakes are closed, but the landings belong to the Federal government at many of them, and those haven't been shut down so you can still launch your boat but you can't go fishing or swimming from it. And of the list of businesses being ordered to close, nothing has been said of construction (but needed home repairs have been specifically allowed, and nothing has been said of Uber/Lift cars, nor has anything been said of lawncare or many other businesses. Probably 30+ types of businesses specifically named as needing to close, but there's plenty more types which could bring close personal contacts. Would have probably been better to list the allowed businesses instead. Department stores must close, but Walmart can remain open though they can only sell necessities like food, medicine and personal care stuff. Sporting goods stores must close, but gun shops can stay open. Of any open businesses, only 5 people allowed per 1000SqFt or 20% of allowed capacity whichever is smallest, and stores are responsible to make sure everyone inside maintains at least 6ft distance between each other.

Most of the grocery stores here have set aside an hour per day once or twice a week for elderly customers only, usually the first hour they're open. At 60 years old I'm eligible for that but I'm not liking being called 'elderly' just yet. Still I'm going in the morning for some food with hopes of snagging a little more TP and paper towels to keep the stock here from running out. We're all country and mountain folk here so we know how to do without if we have to, but it's nice to have if you can get it. And hoping the hardware store is open to get a few things to finish up some of the projects going on. While it's almost certain to be safe eating to-go (takeaway) food I've been avoiding that for 3 weeks just to be certain I know my food is safe, but it's SO tempting to grab something while I'm out. Also some chance of heavy/severe thunderstorms here tomorrow so I might be stuck inside for the weather, but I'm glad to be so far from 'the world' that I am free to go outside on the property freely without worry of catching anything or getting a citation for being out. It's a beautiful quiet night with a hazy full moon letting you see among the trees almost as if it were daytime- kind of hard taking all that in knowing the world is hurting not so far away.

Phil
Always good hearing that you are doing well Phil. I kind of envy you though being able to enjoy nature. Hang in there and stay safe!
 
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