Brexit
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BMbler
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OK, timing of Chilcot report... am I paranoid, to see it just right now, in order to burry bad news, with even worse news?
If anything bLiar has got been put back to his cave, by Conn's?
National debt worldwide is only an indicator of monetary system corruption, but still does not clearly implies importance of economic changes due to globalisation.
UK is (I think) the biggest debt'or per person in the world.
If anything bLiar has got been put back to his cave, by Conn's?
National debt worldwide is only an indicator of monetary system corruption, but still does not clearly implies importance of economic changes due to globalisation.
UK is (I think) the biggest debt'or per person in the world.
Nigel
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UK will be in a similar situation to another small island just off the coast of a large trading area that has it's own independent currency and tax rules - the difference to Hong Kong is that they have a bridge and we have a tunnel. Hong Kong does quite well!Hi,
Sounds nice but a 1 Minute comment on such a big issue and then also in a more or less cynical tone, can not be taken very serious
Now GB is going to be a Enterprise Paradise, a Tax Paradise and a Bank Paradise, according to him, and I do not know what else, ... History will tell.
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rsfoto
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I think that if common sense prevails, then everything is manageable ...
.. but does politics include common sense ?
Nigel
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That is not necessarily true, the share price of the Deutsche Bank this year looks like the share price of GoPro, that may turn out to be unmanageable!
BBC - Deutsche Bank: World's most dangerous bank?
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Small business's like mine are being hammered and a lot will be going out of business. I know of 3 already who are winding down (not in the electronics industry though).
Just to give you an idea.
Lets say we send 10,000gbp at the exchange rate of 1.51 (just before Brexit) we got 15,100usd.
Now at the current exchange rate (about 1.29) we get 12900. That's a 2200usd difference which is a LOT for a small business. It means at the current exchange rate businesses for that transaction size need to find about 1700GBP more just to break even but still selling the same amount of stock. Either price hikes are coming or lots of businesses are going down.
Just to give you an idea.
Lets say we send 10,000gbp at the exchange rate of 1.51 (just before Brexit) we got 15,100usd.
Now at the current exchange rate (about 1.29) we get 12900. That's a 2200usd difference which is a LOT for a small business. It means at the current exchange rate businesses for that transaction size need to find about 1700GBP more just to break even but still selling the same amount of stock. Either price hikes are coming or lots of businesses are going down.
M
mike-k
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...thanks for this thread
politics include common sense, if the politician work for the good of their country, and not for what the chief-lobbyist of the highest bri....no bidder says.
Main-Issue with the "Remain"-Voters: most of them believe the EU is strictly free market.
As EU is always a synonym for "EEC" and "Europe". Anything against EU automaticly means "against free trade, against europe". While exactly the opposite is true, as EFTA, originally founded by GB, has been a much bigger and democratic free-trade-zone, and the EEC a zentralised copy of EFTA; but the EEC forced each member (and who's been a member of EC (EG), one was forced to joyn EEC) to leave EFTA.
Now, with the initial shock of the Brexit gone, more and more realize that the EU is far more than a "trading zone only", completly anti-democratic as there is no way the EU can cope with democratic decissions of the member-states, and the only way for them to procede is pressure and force.
Sad part: those who have never lived in a world without EU still believe all that's being sad about the EU being something positiv.
GB should reestablish its EFTA-membership; giving some relief about "with whom shall we trade". But even without that, companys are already running into the arms of GB, as the first EU-rules are being dismissed and everybody realize "hey, that could be something good"
...time will tell... most important thing: stop panicking, remain calm.
politics include common sense, if the politician work for the good of their country, and not for what the chief-lobbyist of the highest bri....no bidder says.
Main-Issue with the "Remain"-Voters: most of them believe the EU is strictly free market.
As EU is always a synonym for "EEC" and "Europe". Anything against EU automaticly means "against free trade, against europe". While exactly the opposite is true, as EFTA, originally founded by GB, has been a much bigger and democratic free-trade-zone, and the EEC a zentralised copy of EFTA; but the EEC forced each member (and who's been a member of EC (EG), one was forced to joyn EEC) to leave EFTA.
Now, with the initial shock of the Brexit gone, more and more realize that the EU is far more than a "trading zone only", completly anti-democratic as there is no way the EU can cope with democratic decissions of the member-states, and the only way for them to procede is pressure and force.
Sad part: those who have never lived in a world without EU still believe all that's being sad about the EU being something positiv.
GB should reestablish its EFTA-membership; giving some relief about "with whom shall we trade". But even without that, companys are already running into the arms of GB, as the first EU-rules are being dismissed and everybody realize "hey, that could be something good"
...time will tell... most important thing: stop panicking, remain calm.
M
mike-k
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@JooVuu
as you are also in business - in Switzerland, companys and business"people" do relate a lot on EU... Eg. when SNB dropped the CHF<->EUR link, all were totaly surprised and claimed of being forced out of business (they all still exist, and SNB never ment that link to be permanent) - they just "slept" and didn't prepare (including "remembering that there are more currencys than CHF and EUR" aso)
Have there been any strategy-preparation for both cases (eg. how to "shock absorb" a brexit, how to continue if "remain") in GB?
as you are also in business - in Switzerland, companys and business"people" do relate a lot on EU... Eg. when SNB dropped the CHF<->EUR link, all were totaly surprised and claimed of being forced out of business (they all still exist, and SNB never ment that link to be permanent) - they just "slept" and didn't prepare (including "remembering that there are more currencys than CHF and EUR" aso)
Have there been any strategy-preparation for both cases (eg. how to "shock absorb" a brexit, how to continue if "remain") in GB?
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Nigel
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Your UK prices may have to rise but don't you now make more from your exports than you used to which should more than make up for the extra cost of your imports? If you are adding value to your imports then you should do...
Of course if you move your production to the UK then we gain jobs and you make more money...
BMbler
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Economy and businesses speak for itself, if EU was(is) good guarantor for trade.
Let's say, (rare) as manufacturing business had a backing of EU dealing with Chinese and their copyrights (avoidance), now- they'll have perfect excuse to deal what is the best for them.
(Thus is to end of splitting hairs between EU and EEC)
For any country to function income from taxes is most important factor, talking about distancing from EU trade deals, failing £, not increase of taxes, national debt levels and possibility for ANY business to survive... nonsensical BS, that Brexit'eering clowns are scared to admit as as a pledge ever made!
Tough times to come, people, business will suffer, politicians will play on emotions, will make millions from it and RECOVERY is not on the table, not in current framework, not in a near future unfortunately....
Let's say, (rare) as manufacturing business had a backing of EU dealing with Chinese and their copyrights (avoidance), now- they'll have perfect excuse to deal what is the best for them.
(Thus is to end of splitting hairs between EU and EEC)
For any country to function income from taxes is most important factor, talking about distancing from EU trade deals, failing £, not increase of taxes, national debt levels and possibility for ANY business to survive... nonsensical BS, that Brexit'eering clowns are scared to admit as as a pledge ever made!
Tough times to come, people, business will suffer, politicians will play on emotions, will make millions from it and RECOVERY is not on the table, not in current framework, not in a near future unfortunately....
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rsfoto
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That is right and on the other side your goods are cheaper now in US $ and so perhaps you can get more Business ? OK, up to what extent this could help, that is one variable that only you can judge ...
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Yes if we sold to the USA much or operated in USD neither of which we do.
This may come off as a rant but it's not...I'm going to walk you through moving production to Britain for just a TINY 660MAH battery.
Mould cost: £12,000.
Unit Cost: £5.80
Quantity: 3000
So Nigel are you going to pay much higher prices to keep us in business? I'll go for no. You'll turn to cheap Chinese (USD) stuff. Don't preach what you don't follow. If you want to become my head sales person for the UK (I only pay commission) and make sure our sales more than offset our costs of bringing everything to the UK then I'll happily transfer...if not well then you see the predicament.
This is not directed at you, but this line which is being repeated by Farage, BoJo and the others is incredibly infuriating. Yes maybe if I'm a multi-billion pound hedge fund, I shouldn't panic, but I'm not. Every rise and fall in the USD can make or break my business. Why should I keep calm when I'm literally losing money through no fault of my own? The three companies who have wound down, said that their margins were at £1-2 for a piece of clothing. They just said it's not worth it. It's not panicking when your livlihood is on the line...it's natural.
We have plans in place, some of which are starting to materialize. If we can get to a good enough stage, we won't exist in our current form. I'm obviously not going to go into this too much detail and we have another way to operate the business we are going to as a backup. So basically we have two ideas. We really are ****ting it at the moment.
Just as a general - this whole thing about - yes your goods are cheaper in the US now so you can sell more: This really only holds true if we export to the USA - we don't really. We also collect money in GBP which we then have to convert to USD again pretty useless. With all the business owners I know they are in the same boat as I am or a lot worse.
Edit:
I really do not mean to come across as aggressive/ranty - but I think this has been neglected and a lot of people have downplayed/ignored the ramifications.
If you have any questions/want to know my opinions please just ask.
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rsfoto
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Very well said.
We have the best example here in this Forum.
Upset People by dubious companies selling cheap stuff but continue buying from them just because it is cheap. At the end of the day they have spent the same as if buying one time good stuff at of course a higher Price ...
The biggest pandemia, not directed to you, in 21st Century is " Greed " but I think this is offtopic " Brexit " already ...
BMbler
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Manufacturing in UK to be made competitive, with pricing in China?....
(Not popular to the same extent, but an example worth)
Cyrus where producing hi-fi equipment in UK and nearly gone bankrupt so many times, but priced their cheapest amplifier at £350, that seemed fair...
Lynn where producing equal quality amplifier in UK, priced £450, but new model was made out of components made in China and priced at £300...
They sold 2000 units a year each....
Whilst Technics, made in Japan, priced £250, using only Japanese components sold 30000 of similar performance amplifiers.
Plain and simple, public buys with own money, they pay for for product quality for the best price paid and disappeared technological advantage to produce pioneering products at way higher manufacturing costs mean unless markets are protected by import duties- it will not make own ends meet ever.
(Not popular to the same extent, but an example worth)
Cyrus where producing hi-fi equipment in UK and nearly gone bankrupt so many times, but priced their cheapest amplifier at £350, that seemed fair...
Lynn where producing equal quality amplifier in UK, priced £450, but new model was made out of components made in China and priced at £300...
They sold 2000 units a year each....
Whilst Technics, made in Japan, priced £250, using only Japanese components sold 30000 of similar performance amplifiers.
Plain and simple, public buys with own money, they pay for for product quality for the best price paid and disappeared technological advantage to produce pioneering products at way higher manufacturing costs mean unless markets are protected by import duties- it will not make own ends meet ever.
M
mike-k
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@BMbler
...the hair-splitting IS important, as EEC declares the rules of the artificial european tradezone, while EU dictate everyting else (including politics, eg. "you have to vote a 2nd time" - a rather strange definition of democracy in my opinion, but ok, and currency (a freetrade-zone NEVER has to do with currency)... you see, you keep defending points that belong in EEC; but the EEC existed without the Union... (the EEC has been founded way earlier than the EU) AND, the EEC has been a zentralized replacement for an already working EFTA... The only reason why EEC has become victorious has been the fact, that Spain, France and Germany where in it, and that they a) quit ther EFTA-membership and b) forced all other of "EU15" (former EG) to also leave EFTA...
Tough times - yeah. THEY are inavoidable. Even WITHIN the EU, there are tough times coming; the Euro is falling again, and it has been falling before. In France there are severe civil uprisings against the Brussels austerity-politics, spain and portugal are feeling pressure from germany, and NATO is doing extensive "trainings" near the russion border.
TTIP is being pushed, so the whole EU-economy is faced with being flood with cheep products that could never have been released to customers in europe...
The question is: who will come out of those tough times better? The EU-states, or the independent ones?
Check out on how Norway mastered the "Euro-Crisis", how Switzerland, how the "semi-independant" GB, and what the Euro-States itself went through...
And, something has not been taken into consideration:
the world has changed.
China has become the most important market for quiet all states.
There is something called "BRICS", also a free-trade-zone with much more reasonable terms&agreements.
Euro is crashing (as the Maastricht-Criterias have been untightened)
EU is going to war (eg. Ukraine, Nato-maneuvers, expansion on any price)
EU has severe problems in their memberstates (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, upcoming France)
As I do understand the problems of economy based and relating to EU-only, I don't understand why nobody is ready to objectivly analyse the current situation of the EU.
Everybody keeps claiming "they brought us peace" as EU means EC for them; but wrong, EU brought us Yugoslavia and Ukraine, and has been founded in 1991 (or was it 92??) WITHOUT asking the people of the member-states (thats a way to get a democratic legitimation, isn't it?) ... but even if you grant those points; what is the future of the EU?
I think especially acc. TTIP, everybody should ask him/herself "ok, what will be the future of EU, and which way will be the easier one?" (as tough times are not avoidable anyway)
...the hair-splitting IS important, as EEC declares the rules of the artificial european tradezone, while EU dictate everyting else (including politics, eg. "you have to vote a 2nd time" - a rather strange definition of democracy in my opinion, but ok, and currency (a freetrade-zone NEVER has to do with currency)... you see, you keep defending points that belong in EEC; but the EEC existed without the Union... (the EEC has been founded way earlier than the EU) AND, the EEC has been a zentralized replacement for an already working EFTA... The only reason why EEC has become victorious has been the fact, that Spain, France and Germany where in it, and that they a) quit ther EFTA-membership and b) forced all other of "EU15" (former EG) to also leave EFTA...
Tough times - yeah. THEY are inavoidable. Even WITHIN the EU, there are tough times coming; the Euro is falling again, and it has been falling before. In France there are severe civil uprisings against the Brussels austerity-politics, spain and portugal are feeling pressure from germany, and NATO is doing extensive "trainings" near the russion border.
TTIP is being pushed, so the whole EU-economy is faced with being flood with cheep products that could never have been released to customers in europe...
The question is: who will come out of those tough times better? The EU-states, or the independent ones?
Check out on how Norway mastered the "Euro-Crisis", how Switzerland, how the "semi-independant" GB, and what the Euro-States itself went through...
And, something has not been taken into consideration:
the world has changed.
China has become the most important market for quiet all states.
There is something called "BRICS", also a free-trade-zone with much more reasonable terms&agreements.
Euro is crashing (as the Maastricht-Criterias have been untightened)
EU is going to war (eg. Ukraine, Nato-maneuvers, expansion on any price)
EU has severe problems in their memberstates (Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, upcoming France)
As I do understand the problems of economy based and relating to EU-only, I don't understand why nobody is ready to objectivly analyse the current situation of the EU.
Everybody keeps claiming "they brought us peace" as EU means EC for them; but wrong, EU brought us Yugoslavia and Ukraine, and has been founded in 1991 (or was it 92??) WITHOUT asking the people of the member-states (thats a way to get a democratic legitimation, isn't it?) ... but even if you grant those points; what is the future of the EU?
I think especially acc. TTIP, everybody should ask him/herself "ok, what will be the future of EU, and which way will be the easier one?" (as tough times are not avoidable anyway)
Nigel
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While the £ is low, it should be true if you sell anywhere but UK.
As long as the value of the £ says down, the Chinese stuff has become more expensive and your stuff has become more attractive.
Yes, the UK will have to pay higher prices for many things over the next few months, and we will start buying more food from UK farmers etc., things will change but change can be good.
BMbler
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UK farmers food...?
Produced by EU migrants 90% workforce
Subsidised by EU ~40% average....
Top all of that with impending (EU) import duties...
Bunch of carrots produced in UK priced €5 vs €1 priced, produced within EU
THAT is scenario, no different.
Produced by EU migrants 90% workforce
Subsidised by EU ~40% average....
Top all of that with impending (EU) import duties...
Bunch of carrots produced in UK priced €5 vs €1 priced, produced within EU
THAT is scenario, no different.
M
mike-k
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@JooVuu
No, without sarcasm as it is a serious topic after all:
If you boil it down, main issue on hand:
except those stock-exchange-panics nothing happend till today. GB is still a member of the EU (until one applys Chapt.50).
Stock-Exchange (including the pound) already recoverd.
The pound has had fluctuations before, so that shouldn't have been a surprise...
Ok, so for now, there should not be any setbacks YET*. There is still time to prepare.
*And IF there are already retailiations from EU-manufacturers/supplyers - well, good thing that GB is leaving, isn't it? Guess what they'd do to your business if they would have remained!
Sure - as long the politics isn't preparing itself (and the country) for an alternative, there will be chaos; that is why now everybody should remain calm, stop panicking and think of the alternatives:
chapt. 50 needs to be negotiated; following alternatives present themselfes:
1. a "freetrade-agreement" with EU? Worked for Ukraine and Turky; regulating only questions of trade.
2. joyn the EEC without joyning the EU (as Norway and Lichtenstein did)
3. bilateral contracts with EU as Switzerland did (I wouldn't recomend that solution, as the EU strongarms Switzerland on every occasion)
4. with 1 or 3, rejoyning the EFTA, and having even MORE countries to freetrade with...
...and make the solution as "put in place" at the moment, GB finally leaves the EU.
During that, you can, as one who remained calm, prepare your company and strategy for any of those solutions, while all those panicking around "we have to rejoyn" (while not even left the EU) will be overwhelmed with what happens...
Edit: typos. Leftovers are free of charge
...yeah, because it actually is the resonable thing to do: not panicking and thinking about what to do next, what (new) options and opportunities opened themselfes... (I don't care who else is saying this; because "doing the opposite of those politicians I don't like eventhough i know it's wrong" sure will make everything more complicated)
No, without sarcasm as it is a serious topic after all:
If you boil it down, main issue on hand:
except those stock-exchange-panics nothing happend till today. GB is still a member of the EU (until one applys Chapt.50).
Stock-Exchange (including the pound) already recoverd.
The pound has had fluctuations before, so that shouldn't have been a surprise...
Ok, so for now, there should not be any setbacks YET*. There is still time to prepare.
*And IF there are already retailiations from EU-manufacturers/supplyers - well, good thing that GB is leaving, isn't it? Guess what they'd do to your business if they would have remained!
Sure - as long the politics isn't preparing itself (and the country) for an alternative, there will be chaos; that is why now everybody should remain calm, stop panicking and think of the alternatives:
chapt. 50 needs to be negotiated; following alternatives present themselfes:
1. a "freetrade-agreement" with EU? Worked for Ukraine and Turky; regulating only questions of trade.
2. joyn the EEC without joyning the EU (as Norway and Lichtenstein did)
3. bilateral contracts with EU as Switzerland did (I wouldn't recomend that solution, as the EU strongarms Switzerland on every occasion)
4. with 1 or 3, rejoyning the EFTA, and having even MORE countries to freetrade with...
...and make the solution as "put in place" at the moment, GB finally leaves the EU.
During that, you can, as one who remained calm, prepare your company and strategy for any of those solutions, while all those panicking around "we have to rejoyn" (while not even left the EU) will be overwhelmed with what happens...
Edit: typos. Leftovers are free of charge