COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Dashmellow

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I think most of his weight loss is since he listened to the doctors saying that obesity contributes to covid deaths and decided to put the whole nation on a covid-diet to save lives.

Nigel, your fanatical fealty towards Boris Johnson makes you the British equivalent of hard core Trumpster! :ROFLMAO:
 

Nigel

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And now we have 3 fully-documented re-infections in various parts of the world, raising questions of how much and how long post-infection immunity gives- also bringing questions about mutations and whether round #2 has begun.
We should start seeing more of these now since it is long enough since the start of the epidemic for the antibodies in some people to have stopped being effective. The big question now is, will any of the people who get reinfected also get ill, and in the case of the recent proven reinfection they didn't have any symptoms second time around, they were only discovered due to a routine test. Good, although limited, evidence that the vaccines that target T cells will work long term, and that places with little immunity like Australia really are going to need to vaccinate everyone. Although we have yet to find out if people with second infections are actually infectious, seems likely but not proven.
 

Nigel

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One of Australia's most senior religious leaders wants people to boycott the COVID-19 vaccine being developed by Oxford University because scientists have used cell lines from a long ago electively aborted fetus.
The hypocrisy and irony just astonishes me! The idea that one should avoid getting a vaccine during a pandemic because as a religious leader, Anglican Archbishop of Sydney, Glenn Davies calls himself virtuous and "pro-life" and disapproves? This particular line of cells has been in use for decades in the manufacture of other vaccines for diseases like rubella and measles. That long ago aborted fetus is a hero, having already been responsible for saving hundreds of thousands and possibly millions of lives and potentrially many more millions to come if the COVID vaccine proves effective long term yet according to this religious leader, many millions of people should be condemned to debilitating disease and death because the creation of this new vaccine allegedly didn't adhere to "the highest ethical standards" because some woman once elected to have an abortion. Pro-life, indeed! :eek: :rage:
A human foetus 50 years ago donated a kidney to science, which has since saved millions of lives and considerably improved far more.

Any vaccine based on a "live" virus needs to replicate that virus, and human viruses are designed to replicate in human cells, so to produce human vaccines requires a supply of cells, preferably human cells. If it had been an adult kidney donation then presumably there wouldn't be any objection, their problem is only because it came from a foetus, one which has since probably seen more life itself and saved more lives of others than any other human.

The only alternative is the new mRNA vaccines like the moderna vaccine, maybe why USA is so keen on that vaccine? However this new technology has yet to be proven to work and not kill people, it may be a technology for the future, but to risk millions of lives by rejecting the older technology is not sensible.
 

Nigel

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Nigel, your fanatical fealty towards Boris Johnson makes you the British equivalent of hard core Trumpster! :ROFLMAO:
It is thanks to Boris that UK now has herd immunity and for us the epidemic is over.

Nothing like Trump with his unproven medicines being tested in unscientific trials leaving the USA still with 40,000 new cases yesterday even though testing has dropped back to June levels and is still decreasing - "Slow the testing down please."!

The exponential end of the epidemic in the UK:
1598444873382.png
 

Dashmellow

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It is thanks to Boris that UK now has herd immunity and for us the epidemic is over.

Nothing like Trump with his unproven medicines being tested in unscientific trials leaving the USA still with 40,000 new cases yesterday even though testing has dropped back to June levels and is still decreasing - "Slow the testing down please."!

The exponential end of the epidemic in the UK:
View attachment 53141


When you arbitrarily start manipulating the criteria for what constitutes a COVID death, of course you can get the death to to appear to drop like stone. That was the whole point of changing the criteria. It is a joke to eliminate anyone from the list who dies more than 28 days after testing positive. And people are even dying months after seemingly recovering from COVID because they are left with life threatening, lingering symptoms. These are the so called "Long Haulers" I talked about the other day.

What’s more, the U.K. has a fatality rate of 12.6%, second only to Italy’s 13.6%. Sweden has a fatality rate of 6.7%. To put those figures in context, the U.S. has had 54.55 COVID-related deaths per 100,000 people and a fatality rate of 3.1%, less than half the rate of Sweden.

It's weird that you keep touting this mythical notion of herd immunity. It just doesn't exist. There is no evidence of it and what immunity that may exist is now thought to be temporary.

Read some legit medical journals if you want the truth!

Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine - Four months into the COVID-19 pandemic, Sweden’s prized herd immunity is nowhere in sight

Or try reading some good journalism.

Sweden’s herd-immunity ambitions are a pipe dream — just ask the U.K.
‘The sad fact is that herd immunity just isn’t a solution to our pandemic woes’

Stop promoting this nonsense, self serving propaganda!
 

Dashmellow

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@Nigel,

Another 1184 new COVID-19 cases in the UK yesterday! If the pandemic is "over" as you allege how come your case rate continues to RISE since July?

And don't try to claim it is merely because of testing. That's what Trump does. Oh, I did say you sound like a UK version of a Trumpster in your fealty towards Boris, and true to form, you replay with more propaganda. And the propaganda is simply more repetition of the same party line. That's what Trump and his minions do. The idea seems to be if you repeat a lie enough times, people will think it is real.


cases.jpg
 

Nigel

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And don't try to claim it is merely because of testing.
Testing keeps rising, false positives keep rising, nobody knows the real number!

If you are starting to feel like the coronavirus epidemic will never end, then you may be correct. A statistical quirk in testing means that Britain may never hit zero cases, even if the virus is wiped out entirely.
The reason lies in the large number of false positives that are almost certain to creep in once case numbers drop very low, yet testing remains very high.
As the true number of cases becomes ever lower, this false positive group begins to make up a larger and larger proportion of the numbers announced. Even when the reality is that there are no cases in the group being tested, false positive results will still occur because the tests aren't perfect.

Oxford University's Professor Carl Heneghan told MailOnline: 'You get to a point where there's a greater chance the test result is wrong than it is right. 'Are we picking up people who have had virus some time ago and still have RNA in their body?' He told the Telegraph: 'It looks like we’ll struggle to get out of this. We’re now in a spiral of bad data.'

Given that the rise in cases closely reflects the rise in testing, it seems that most of the positives are false positives.
 

kamkar

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We got 57 new cases yesterday. 1000 or there about would send Danes scrambling for cover.

Maybe under that F35 we heard Monday ( my friend live not too far from a airbase in karup ) and what ever it was we heard it sure as hell was no F16, CUZ that sucker sounded like something else.
Sadly it did not make a low pass over my friends fields like the F16 some times do, and we dident even see it due to partial cloud cover, but it was a unusual sound indeed.

we got 19 in hospital 3 in ICU and 2 on ventilator, thats 2 less in hospital VS day before yesterday.
 

Nigel

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We got 57 new cases yesterday. 1000 or there about would send Danes scrambling for cover.
That would be 668 adjusted for UK population size.
we got 19 in hospital 3 in ICU and 2 on ventilator, thats 2 less in hospital VS day before yesterday.
We are down 64 in England in the last week, now 459 in hospital, dropping fast but still some way to go.
 

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Dashmellow

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You know, Nigel, this behavior of yours is getting more and more weird. This highly unique virus has the real experts struggling to understand this disease as they search for answers. Modern medicine has never seen a contagious virus like this in pandemic form with these characteristics and it has only been with us for eight months yet we get a self righteous, highly partisan, ultra nationalist, amateur armchair epidemiogist like you who continually claims to have it all figured out. How could it be that you have all the answers when the true experts don't?

This absurd business of you suddenly declaring the pandemic in the UK "over", (which you've conveniently downgraded to an epidemic) is wacky bizarre! It is merely delusional wishful thinking on your part.

And despite one of the premiere medical journals in the world, The Lancet, publishing a study conducted in hard hit Spain that concludes that natural herd immunity is "unachievable", and now other well respected Journals concluding that herd immunity in the UK and Sweden is nothing more than a "pipe dream" and we have the UK government publishing data showing a sustained upward slope in the coronavirus cases in the UK, you continue to pound the table and claim otherwise.

When confronted with the fact that tens of thousands of COVID victims have been documented to have debilitating, sometimes life threatening symptoms months after release from the hospital, you ignore this. Instead you continue to promote the fantasy of herd immunity and mass infection regardless of how many people die (other than you) or become permanently disabled.

It is grotesque and it is delusional.

As I mentioned weeks ago, you have become a parody of yourself.

This would all be sort of funny but the fact that you see the pandemic as some sort of international competition and you are willing to keep moving the goal posts and actually lie about the facts when the actual experts prove otherwise, it is disturbing and dangerous. And the fact that you continue to taunt and bash other nations while continue with the empty boasting about the UK is an appalling attitude and a violation of the rules here.
 
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Dashmellow

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Testing keeps rising, false positives keep rising, nobody knows the real number!




Given that the rise in cases closely reflects the rise in testing, it seems that most of the positives are false positives.

As predicted you would claim the cumulative testing is the reason for more cases, That's exactly what Trump says. The fact is that if fewer people were getting the COVID virus, the testing would show the numbers declining rather than rising.

Interestingly, the testing capacity in the UK has been diminishing since July, just as the numbers began to rise. But why let the facts get in the way? Oh wait! Now they're somehow all false positives. How convenient!

capacity.jpg
 

Nigel

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Interestingly, the testing capacity in the UK has been diminishing since July,
Irrelevant when we are not using 100% of capacity!
 

Dashmellow

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Irrelevant when we are not using 100% of capacity!

No matter how much you try to twist yourself up in armchair epidemiologist spin, the notion that the "epidemic" as you now call it in the UK is "over" is a ludicrous fantasy.

As is habitual with you at this point, you ignore all my other points along with the links to the actual facts of the matter.

It's a sad joke at this point.
 
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Nigel

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No matter how much you try to twist yourself up in armchair epidemiologist spin, the notion that the "epidemic" as you now call it in the UK "over" is a ludicrous fantasy.
The definition of an epidemic requires that the disease is widespread and spreading rapidly, however:
Most neighbourhoods in England have recorded zero coronavirus cases in a month.
Professor Clancy said: "91 per cent of England (that’s 51million people) live in neighbourhoods where there hasn’t been a recorded Covid-19 case in the last 4 weeks."
So it is not widespread, not spreading rapidly and therefore no longer an epidemic.

It is of course still a pandemic since it is widespread across the world.
 

kamkar

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It do seem that if you let your guard down, then it can go bad quickly.

I cant recall any country loosening up on initial restrictions not seeing some degree of flare up of this thing.
My municipality are also dropping again, so already 1 shade less red, and hopefully we will be back in the pink again, or better yet grey that is 0 infected in 2 weeks or more.
 

Dashmellow

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The definition of an epidemic requires that the disease is widespread and spreading rapidly, however:

So it is not widespread, not spreading rapidly and therefore no longer an epidemic.

It is of course still a pandemic since it is widespread across the world.

My neighbors have had zero cases too, In fact. I happen to live in a state that has kept the virus well under control since the very beginning because of the outstanding response by our non-partisan government officials that include a Republican Governor and a Progressive Party Lieutenant Governor. But we are living in a world-wide pandemic and even in the state where I live (Vermont) where we have only 1,577 cases total and 58 deaths since the beginning of the pandemic, with only three deaths since last May. We have one of the lowest case rates, and in fact probably THE lowest case rate in the entire country but nobody is playing games like you and calling this a local "epidemic".

England has recorded lower deaths in the last month because the criteria for COVID related deaths has been recently absurdly manipulated to exclude anyone who dies more than 28 days after being tested! This is an outright, politically motivated SCAM!
But hey, if you keep promoting the party line maybe some people will believe it. :rolleyes:
 

Dashmellow

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Vermont borders states with major covid-19 outbreaks, but you won’t find that here

Unfortunately, people from other states are flocking to Vermont to escape the high infection rates elsewhere and our infection rate has seen a slight case rate bump or two. Time will tell how this all plays out. Today, I was out driving on a major interstate highway and every car around me (5 of them) had out of state plates.

It has helped that Vermont is again listed as the healthiest state in the nation.


Vermont the Nation's Healthiest State Once Again
 
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Nigel

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We have one of the lowest case rates, and in fact probably THE lowest case rate in the entire country but nobody is playing games like you and calling this a local "epidemic".
Since your state can't stop infectious people bring the virus in and you don't have much immunity to stop the spread of an outbreak, your state should be preparing for your epidemic to arrive in the late autumn or early winter. This is a virus that requires the right conditions to get R above 1.0 and there are a number of states in the north of the USA that have not yet had suitable conditions. When suitable conditions do arrive it will spread fast. Don't think that masks are going to save you, you should hope that a vaccine arrives before those conditions arrive, and while you might not agree with Trump's emergency use authorisation of a vaccine, it might well save your state and a few others, Fauci's Moderna vaccine will not arrive until the whole USA has herd immunity at which point it won't be needed! There are several states in the North of the USA just waiting for a change of season, just like the southern states boasted about their great handling of the epidemic throughout the spring, while waiting for the summer season to arrive for a major outbreak!

Of course it is possible that suitable conditions for the virus to multiply will never arrive, Other countries with a northern climate, Finland and Norway have both had far less infections than Vermont with no sign of any change, although they have recently had a very similar apparent increase in cases to the UK since we have all increased testing. Ukraine also has a low infection count, but that has recently changed into outbreak conditions as their summer season comes to an end and unlike Finland and Norway they haven't increased testing.
 
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