COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

[Nigel]

Wow, that's an interesting aspect I never thought about either- and I can't recall seeing where any of the Professionals have considered it

It is being studied, this is quite a good read, even for the non-technical:

Covid-19: Do many people have pre-existing immunity?

It seemed a truth universally acknowledged that the human population had no pre-existing immunity to SARS-CoV-2, but is that actually the case? Peter Doshi explores the emerging research on immunological responses Even in local areas that have experienced some of the greatest rises in excess...

www.bmj.com

“If it were the case that in London the disease hadn’t disseminated too widely, and only 15% have experienced the virus [as serology tests indicate] . . . under those circumstances, if you lift lockdown, you should see an immediate and commensurate increase in cases, as we have observed in many other settings,” Gupta told The BMJ, “But that hasn’t happened. That is just a fact. The question is why.”

At least six studies have reported T cell reactivity against SARS-CoV-2 in 20% to 50% of people with no known exposure to the virus

 

[kamkar]

Some influencer here ( former member of a pop band ) had her instagram closed for spreading BS covid info.

 

[jokiin]

I never thought about this but I might have some sort of antibodies as I grew up in Malaysia and have eaten lots of bat meat.

not sure that would help unless you were handling them while live, or eating them raw maybe

 

[Indian]

not sure that would help unless you were handling them while live, or eating them raw maybe

Eating for me meant trapping them and frying or roasting over a flame out while fishing or camping. It was not mums cooking as the only meat we had at home was lamb. Some poorer Indians did eat bat but mostly the Chinese that had bat in their meals. The indigenous people or Orang Asli also had bat in their meals.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[SawMaster]

Subsistence hunters and trappers have the animal at hand, so they can check for signs of diseased animals and avoid eating them. But when the meat is being sold at a market already processed, you cannot know what you're getting. And even at the other extreme where things are supposed to be inspected and well regulated, the system often doesn't function as most consumers think it does. Here in the US, a meat processing plant might see a visit from an Inspector once or twice a year at most, and that inspector may spend as little as twenty minutes in the processing area. They spend more time looking at paperwork than inspecting for food safety here

Just saw THIS from Chris Cilliza of CNN. According to the Mayo Clinic, one of the worlds most highly respected research hospitals, for the US to reach 'herd immunity' would take 70% of the population becoming immune. If left to nature without a vaccine contributing to immunity that would mean 229M cases leaving about 6.8M dead And that's if the immunity endures. If immunity is short-lived a vaccine becomes even more critical to keep the death toll down. So much for the herd immunity approach.....

There will be more pandemics, as history makes clear, and we'd dam# well better learn from this one that no matter how harsh it seems, the humane solution is immediate containment and total closure of any areas where the disease is found in quantity, and immediate isolation and quarantine of anyone who may have had contact with the disease there, along with anyone else they've had contact with afterward, for a long enough period to know for sure that they are safe to allow back into society as a vaccine or treatment becomes developed. Otherwise things will get out of hand as they have with Covid-19 and we will all suffer through what we're going through now once again.

Sometimes the most civilized thing you can do seems malicious and hateful, but it's always the end results which count for the most. And always when you face an unknown enemy, the best response is to put your every effort and ability to work against it immediately without letting up until you see your way clear to the win.

Phil

 

[SawMaster]

And now we know that the severe reaction to the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine was because of a pre-existing and highly unusual nerve condition, so the trials are restarting. I wish them every success

Phil

 

[kamkar]

The Swedes, well their numbers are dropping, where as We Danes are almost up to 400 new daily cases.
But ! most important they still had many more die, but of course we could now catch up to them or even pass them.

+1 mill Danes will soon get invited to participate in a antibodies survey

26.423 tested in the past 24 hours and of those 589 was infected, but only 4 more have gone to hospital where they join 58 other.
Rollback of some things have begun.

 

[Nigel]

Here in the US, a meat processing plant might see a visit from an Inspector once or twice a year at most, and that inspector may spend as little as twenty minutes in the processing area. They spend more time looking at paperwork than inspecting for food safety here

Ill animals don't get through here, "In the UK an official vet must be present and see every animal before slaughter.", also CCTV must record the process and the recordings made available to the official vet.

Just saw THIS from Chris Cilliza of CNN. According to the Mayo Clinic, one of the worlds most highly respected research hospitals, for the US to reach 'herd immunity' would take 70% of the population becoming immune. If left to nature without a vaccine contributing to immunity that would mean 229M cases leaving about 6.8M dead And that's if the immunity endures. If immunity is short-lived a vaccine becomes even more critical to keep the death toll down. So much for the herd immunity approach.....

The calculation of deaths required doesn't take into account that it is currently thought that 50% of the population of USA already had T-Cell immunity before the virus arrived, so you are already around half way to "herd immunity", and the various restrictions currently in place mean that unless you relax the restrictions then you have already achieved "herd immunity" in most places.

 

[Nigel]

The Swedes, well their numbers are dropping, where as We Danes are almost up to 400 new daily cases.
But ! most important they still had many more die, but of course we could now catch up to them or even pass them.

+1 mill Danes will soon get invited to participate in a antibodies survey

26.423 tested in the past 24 hours and of those 589 was infected, but only 4 more have gone to hospital where they join 58 other.
Rollback of some things have begun.

The Sweed's testing shows they have now got down to the same level as Denmark and UK, their epidemic has finished.

Your cases may be up, just as ours is up, but that is because we keep increasing the testing so keep finding more cases, many of them false positives. Many of our covid deaths are now false covid deaths, due to the false positive tests, since any death within 28 days of a false positive death is counted as a covid death!

The bottom graph shows our positive tests as given to the press, the top one is the same data corrected for the increase in testing, there is still an increase towards the end, but most of that may be a change to some of the testing to use a test which gives a different number of false positives, hence it being a sudden increase. The official one is highly misleading, yet a lot of decisions on lockdown and rules are being based on it.

 

[kamkar]

I did hear 16 people tested was told they was infected when they was not, once again IT problems which seem to be the bane of Denmark.

 

[Dashmellow]

So, there were 21,588 individuals testing positive for coronavirus within the last seven days in the UK according of official government data. Just yesterday there were 4322, a new high not seen since early May. So, according to Nigel the vast majority of those testing positive are false.

Something else here smells suspiciously false if you ask me.

Modified?

This is the spike that was predicted several months ago and it is still accelerating.

 

[Dashmellow]

The calculation of deaths required doesn't take into account that it is currently thought that 50% of the population of USA already had T-Cell immunity before the virus arrived, so you are already around half way to "herd immunity", and the various restrictions currently in place mean that unless you relax the restrictions then you have already achieved "herd immunity" in most places.

The calculation was made by the academic medical center, The Mayo Clinic which is the number one ranked hospital in the United States. It is one of the most highly respected medical research and educational institutions in the entire country, if not the world. But of course, Nigel is entirely dismissive of their conclusions and claims to know better. Just amazing!

Edit: Newsweek Magazine's rankings of the best 10 hospitals in the world places the Mayo Clinic at the top of the list. Four of the top ten hospitals are in the US with the others in Germany, Switzerland, Japan, Singapore, Canada and Israel. None are in the UK.

 

[kamkar]

Mayo is something i do NOT put on anything i am going to eat.

 

[Nigel]

So, there were 21,588 individuals testing positive for coronavirus within in the last seven days in the UK according of official government data. Just yesterday there were 4322, a new high not seen since early May. So, according to Nigel the vast majority of those testing positive are false.

What is the UK operational false positive rate? The UK operational false positive rate is unknown. There are no published studies on the operational false positive rate of any national COVID-19 testing programme. An attempt has been made to estimate the likely false-positive rate of national COVID-19 testing programmes by examining data from published external quality assessments (EQAs) for RT-PCR assays for other RNA viruses carried out between 2004-2019 [7]. Results of 43 EQAs were examined, giving a median false positive rate of 2.3% (interquartile range 0.8-4.0%).

4% of 200000 tests per day is 8000 positive tests per day, so yes, based on the government info in that second quote, the vast majority of positive tests could be false positives.

I'm sure some of them are real positives, especially as people have been coming into the country from places like Spain and France where the situations don't look good, but there are plenty of people who think most positive tests are false positives. Note that you only get that situation when there are almost no real positives, if you have 1000 deaths per day like the USA then the false positive tests have an insignificant effect on the trends, but when you have 1 hospital death per day like the UK then the false positives can be the vast majority.

 

[Dashmellow]

4% of 200000 tests per day is 8000 positive tests per day, so yes, based on the government info in that second quote, the vast majority of positive tests could be false positives.

I'm sure some of them are real positives, especially as people have been coming into the country from places like Spain and France where the situations don't look good, but there are plenty of people who think most positive tests are false positives. Note that you only get that situation when there are almost no real positives, if you have 1000 deaths per day like the USA then the false positive tests have an insignificant effect on the trends, but when you have 1 hospital death per day like the UK then the false positives can be the vast majority.

Dr. Yeadon says, "Well, I don't want to dismiss the possibility that these numbers are real and that people will get ill and potentially go to hospital and even die"....

He then goes on to say that these numbers "could be" false positives. Essentially, everything he is saying is speculation and opinion, not factual. If all of these PCR tests are "fake" as he states, then what's the purpose of performing them in the first place? Oh, later in the interview Dr. Yeadon says that "occasionally, statistically they throw up false positives". You just can't have it both ways! Either they are all or mostly all false positives or "occasionally, statistically they throw up false positives".

As for the death rates he's basing some of his speculations on, once the Johnson administration decided to cook the books and change the criteria for counting deaths from COVID after 28 days to not be COVID deaths the fix was in.

 

[Dashmellow]

 

[Nigel]

You just can't have it both ways! Either they are all or mostly all false positives or "occasionally, statistically they throw up false positives".

No, the test results are only occasional false positives, but when you test 200000 per day it only takes an occasional false positive for the number of false positives to account for all the positives we are seeing.

So currently we simply do not know how many real positives there are, other than that it is very low, way below the number of flu cases and thus not something that we should be worrying about. If there is a real 2nd wave then we will see an exponential increase in the percentage positive, and from the shape of the curve it will be clear. Currently no such curve exists, and since it is neither an exponential increase or exponential decrease, it is most likely that the number of real cases is close to zero and nearly all the positive tests are false positives.

There are still a few places in UK where herd immunity appears not to have been reached yet and there are still a small numbers of real positives, including a few hospital admissions, but nothing to suggest we will see a nationwide 2nd wave.

Dr. Yeadon says, "Well, I don't want to dismiss the possibility that these numbers are real and that people will get ill and potentially go to hospital and even die"....

The sign of a proper scientist, acknowledging that nobody has yet proven beyond reasonable doubt either way and that there is not general agreement among the medical profession, even if there is amongst the scientists. There is however far more good evidence that there are a high percentage of false positives than against, and as he said, it is certain that the percentage of false positives is not zero, if we wipe it out completely then at some point all positive tests will be false positives.

 

[Dashmellow]

The sign of a "proper" scientist is to acknowledge the known facts, not to spin things to make it appear like there is nothing for anyone to worry about. The facts tell us that hospital admissions due to COVID-19 are doubling every 8 days in the UK. The number of people on ventilators is rising rapidly as well.

This informs us that the spiking test numbers for coronavirus infection are indeed real.

'



UK’s Covid-19 hospital admissions double every 8 days

"LONDON: Britain’s health minister said on Friday that the novel coronavirus was accelerating across the country, with hospital admissions doubling every eight days, but refused to say if another national lockdown would be imposed next month."

UK coronavirus: 3,105 new cases amid rise in hospital admissions and patients on ventilators - as it happened

News updates: UK records rise in cases in 24 hours; more people need hospital treatment; Han**** says testing shortage will take weeks to fix

• Private labs unable to process all Covid tests, NHS email reveals
• Han****’s Commons UQ on coronavirus - Summary

Hospital admissions for coronavirus at highest level since July

 

[Dashmellow]

UK PM Says Second Wave Inevitable

"We’re seeing clear signs this virus is now spreading widely across all age groups and I am particularly worried by the increase in rates of admission to hospital and intensive care among older people," said Yvonne Doyle, Medical Director at Public Health England. "This could be a warning of far worse things to come."

Coronavirus latest: ‘Wake up call’ as Covid-19 hospital admissions are on the rise again across England

"Analysis by i reveals new daily patients have increased by more than 70% in the north west and London and 50% in the Midlands in a week, while bed occupancy has more than doubled in some areas"

 

[kamkar]

Here is the future, just mentally replace fires with stinking piles of corpses.