COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.
Nigel said:
I'm sure some of the people who write these articles don't understand what herd immunity is!



That is just wrong. Before we invented vaccines we always achieved immunity via natural infection, we would not be here today if we had ever failed to do so.

And even if some medical experts don't like it, every country now has some level of herd immunity, maybe not enough to stop the spread, but always enough to slow the spread. That can be seen quite clearly in the data where most countries experiencing a "second wave" are seeing a less steep and smaller rise in cases than in the first wave. (In USA, the second wave was mainly states that were having their first wave, so it is the third wave that is less steep.)

During the first wave, just letting it go free clearly wasn't a good option since the hospitals then got overloaded, lockdowns were necessary, but for further waves it is far from clear what level of lockdown is useful, people are getting infected anyway, the infections stop when enough immunity is achieved, not for any other reason, lockdowns just slow down achieving enough immunity. Some precautions are clearly useful in reducing the amount of immunity required, improving ventilation systems so that they don't circulate virus around the occupants, and so they do maintain decent humidity is sensible. But like every coronavirus that has arrived in the past, it seems likely that most of us will defeat this one using natural immunity before the medical people get a working and approved vaccine into enough people to make a difference.

If the governments really wanted to save lives then we would be distributing the vaccines now, and not pausing trials for 6 weeks at a time because 1 single person became ill for unknown reasons at a time when the figures show 5000 people per day are dying of the disease!
Click to expand...

The journal Nature, founded in 1869 is perhaps the leading multidisciplinary peer-reviewed scientific publication of its kind in the world. You quote Kristian G. Andersen, PhD, a professor in the Department of Immunology and Microbiology at Scripps Research, with joint appointments in the Department of Integrative Structural and Computational Biology, and at the Scripps Research Translational Institute. The Scripps Reserch Institute is ranked as the #1 most influential research institution in the world.

The Lancet, founded in 1823 is among the world's leading, most respected and best-known general medical journals. According to The Lancet's most recent report, (10-15-2020) the "herd immunity theory" approach to the COVID-19 pandemic as "a dangerous fallacy unsupported by scientific evidence", further stating that, "Any pandemic management strategy relying upon immunity from natural infections for COVID-19 is flawed." - "Furthermore, there is no evidence for lasting protective immunity to SARS-CoV-2 following natural infection,4"

Literally every professional scientist who has researched the issue has concluded that a herd immunity approach would cause many millions of unnecessary deaths and then, even still, would not fully resolve the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic due to the unique nature of this particular novel coronavirus. And THIS is the overall consensus and conclusion presented in the journals Nature and The Lancet from multiple leading researchers.

And now, here comes Nigel, a random guy on the internet who, seven days a week spends literally most of his waking hours from early in the mornings to late into the wee hours at night on a dash camera forum presenting himself as an absolute authority on literally "everything", this time, dismissing the world's leading scientists, medical professionals and epidemiologists writing in the world's premiere scientific and medical publications as "just wrong" and asserting that "the people who write these articles don't understand what herd immunity is!"......... Well, because, you know, Nigel knows better than anyone else about literally everything. I mean, Good Lord!

I don't know what is worse, Nigel, the astonishingly arrogant pontificating or the sheer gormlessness but I almost feel embarrassed for you at this point.
 
Last edited:
Either you are doing all that you can, or you are not. There is nothing in between those two vast points except half-vast, and it's because we've been taking a half-vast approach that we have seen so little success in dealing with the pandemic. We're not giving ourselves a chance to win as things are being done now. Rather simple, isn't it?

Phil
 

Study Shows Covid-19 Antibodies Waning Over Time, Suggesting Immunity May Wear Off​

Click to expand...

LONDON—A large English study showed the number of people with Covid-19 antibodies declined significantly over the summer, suggesting that getting the virus may not confer long-lasting immunity from future infection.

The survey of 365,000 adults in England who tested themselves at home using a finger-prick test showed the proportion of people testing positive for Covid-19 antibodies declined by 26.5% between June 20—12 weeks after the peak of infections in the country—and Sept. 28.

CDC Research Letter - ELISA testing - early release: Waning Antibody Responses in Asymptomatic and Symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infection
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
Must be cuz several people had the stuff several times.
 
Dashmellow said:
The survey of 365,000 adults in England who tested themselves at home
Click to expand...
Citizen Science at it's best :)

kamkar said:
Must be cuz several people had the stuff several times.
Click to expand...
Those "Several" are the unusual ones, if we know that there are only several then we also know that the majority have only had it once, and given that we know that antibodies disappear over time, it is clear that we don't understand the role of antibodies in a coronavirus epidemic! How long does it take to create more antibodies on a second encounter with the virus? We do know that the immune system remembers the design, just needs to make them, not start from scratch with the R&D, and it works a lot faster than humans producing new vaccines!
 
One of the problems with determining "immunity" levels is that unless you expose everyone who is supposed to have immunity to the disease you cannot know if they are truly immune. There's been talk about the ethics of exposing people who've taken the vaccines as a way to test their effectiveness- I wouldn't be surprised if that hasn't already been done.

More and more evidence is emerging to support that immunity levels vary considerably among those who have already had the disease, and that it is not a long-lasting immunity such as you get with measles etc. It is certain from the known re-infection cases that immunity is not happening adequately with everyone but again it's impossible to know exactly where that line is drawn., but if immunity doesn't last then the concept of herd immunity offering protection won't apply here.

It takes a long time to amass evidence and verify things to a degree where they are deemed proven by professionals, and we just don't have time to wait till we're absolutely certain about everything before taking action.

Phil
 
SawMaster said:
but if immunity doesn't last then the concept of herd immunity offering protection won't apply here.
Click to expand...
That would make it the only human coronavirus in history and prehistory to not be defeated naturally.

Just because someone doesn't have antibodies does not mean they aren't immune, some studies have suggested that 50% of people are already immune, and that doesn't mean they must have had covid in the past, it may just be immunity to that family of coronaviruses that one of their ancestors caught 100,000 years ago! There is a lot the scientists don't understand about immunity, and far more that the medical experts don't understand, at least with the scientists they tend to understand how much they don't understand!

qz.com

Your immune system uses 50-million-year-old infections to keep you healthy

Viruses from way back when may do some good today.
qz.com qz.com


German researchers found that a staggering 81% of individuals had pre-existing T-cells that cross-react with SARS-CoV-2 epitopes [1]. This fits with modelling in May by Imperial College’s Professor Friston, a world authority in mathematical modelling of complex dynamic biological systems, indicating that around 80% and 50% of the German and UK populations, respectively, are resistant to COVID-19
Click to expand...
www.bmj.com

T-cells really are the superstars in fighting COVID-19 - but why are some of us so poor at making them?

www.bmj.com www.bmj.com
 
Last edited:
Dashmellow said:
These finger pricking citizens are nothing more than lab rats. Actual scientists were doing the science.
Click to expand...
That science wouldn't get done without the help of the citizens, the professionals are no more important, and citizen science doesn't always involve anyone doing it professionally, it is still valid science. The important part is collecting the data, any old scientist should be able to analyse it.
 
Nigel said:
That science wouldn't get done without the help of the citizens, the professionals are no more important, and citizen science doesn't always involve anyone doing it professionally, it is still valid science. The important part is collecting the data, any old scientist should be able to analyse it.
Click to expand...

Lab Rats! :p
 
That is whaty we are, tax paying lab rats that can easy be persuaded to stand in front of other lab rats cannons.
 
We set a new record in the past 25 hours, 63.659 people testes,,,, and just over 1000 of them also infected.
 
The effect of the new university year disrupting the established herd immunity in Nottingham:

ElcUU6HWMAASQfw


The students now have plenty of herd immunity and have almost stopped spreading it to everyone else, everyone else seems to have just enough to stop the spread increasing, but not quite enough to bring it back down ... yet...

On the line for the students, it has been a rather faster rise and fall than the main peak back in March-April, I guess the students didn't lock down much. The faster you spread it, the faster it is over, the end always comes when enough people have been infected, lockdowns do not reduce the number of infections, only slow them down, slow it down too much and people start to lose their immunity before it has been wiped out, and then it can continue forever!
 
“What has happened in SA today, the only way to explain it, the only plausible way to explain it is that some sort of herd immunity has been reached when combined with the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions… like the wearing of masks, physical distancing, ensuring ventilation when indoors and so on,” said Mahdi.
Click to expand...
www.capetownetc.com

Lockdown may have created 'herd immunity' in South Africa

South Africa may have developed some sort of herd immunity to COVID-19, according to scientists in the country. This theory came about after health authorities reported a surprising drop in cases after the initial peak.
www.capetownetc.com
The world’s second largest COVID-19 epidemic has rounded a corner. India’s daily number of daily new cases has almost halved the past six weeks, and a new mathematical model suggests “we may have reached herd immunity,” some members of the panel wrote in a paper published online by The Indian Journal of Medical Research. Assuming measures such as social distancing, wearing masks, and hand washing remain in place, the group said the pandemic could be “controlled by early next year.”
 
Last edited:
Sweden just posted the highest ever daily infected numbers,,,,, so much for their heard immunity approach ( 3254 in 24 hours we had 1017 here )
Most parts of Sweden they now advise against going out and not to socialize with others than the people you live with.

They are also again above us Danes in deaths in 100.000 citizens, and they had many more die up / over there, so i am not entirely convinced their approach to this was wise.
 
kamkar said:
They are also again above us Danes in deaths in 100.000 citizens, and they had many more die up / over there, so i am not entirely convinced their approach to this was wise.
Click to expand...
I guess if nobody tried their approach we'd never know if it was right or wrong, I think we're still quite a long way from knowing who is going to end up with the best outcome from whichever tactic used
 
Germany is more worrying, they have gone exponential.
 
yep France too i think, and Belgium are on their heels with the rest of the feet hanging off a shear drop.
Our authorities also advise ( but dont ban ) travel to all of the world, so our borders remain open still.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top