COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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Of course, excess deaths are an issue and in the UK they have indeed come down recently
Your post makes it sound like we had a disaster in the UK :rolleyes:
So lets look at the facts:
  • In the UK, deaths first went above average for the time of year in week 19.
  • We then had 5 weeks of increasing deaths,
  • Followed by 8 weeks of falling deaths,
  • Since then we have had 6 contiguous weeks with deaths below average - our epidemic was over 6 weeks ago.
We still have a few covid cases, with open borders that will be the case until there are none left in the world, and yes we currently have a few lockdowns to wipe out warm spots. But the epidemic is over and we don't expect it to return in the winter, a few cases no doubt, maybe the odd warm spot, but not another epidemic.

On testing, we are currently doing around twice the testing of the USA, per population, despite the fact that our deaths have been below average for 6 weeks, while the USA epidemic is peaking again with zero chance of getting back down to normal deaths within half a year of the start of the epidemic.

The number of people saved through reduced flu deaths compared to average this year equals 22% of the covid deaths so far, our plans have always considered all deaths, including those yet to come as other countries see second waves.

Interesting to see in the USA, CNN using the UK as an example of how to deal with the epidemic as a whole, rather than how to deal with today's problem:
  • "Let us catch up with the UK and our situation will change, if we could get that kind of rapid feedback everything would change. We could safely send our kids back to school.",
  • "And it doesn't have to happen, the UK proved, ..., they were able to do this, they did it in less than two months, why can't we?"
 
U guys :)

Infection numbers are going up and up here, time to slam some of the doors opened recently.
TV station did test of hand sanitizer use in grocery store, 23 out of 100 used it, i think it is safe to say stupid Danes ( and there is a lot of those ) are long past that Corona thing.
 
Your post makes it sound like we had a disaster in the UK

Well, yes, having the highest mortality rate in the world is indeed a "disaster".

The journalists bylined in those newspaper articles I posted are hardly making these things up, nor is Johns Hopkins University of Medicine.

We still have a few covid cases

A FEW cases? :rolleyes:

Yesterday, there were 950 new COVID-19 cases reported in the United Kingdom. In the last seven days, 5,833 new COVID-19 cases have been recorded in the UK. That works out to a rate of about 300,000 coronavirus cases per year. (assuming it doesn't continue to spike, as appears to be happening) And your second wave is coming, likely in late October/early November, perhaps sooner.

Quite a preposterous definition of "a few" by any standard, JEEZ. :hilarious: How can anyone say this with a straight face and expect that anyone paying attention would believe it?

warm spots

Warm spots? Now there's an amusing euphemism we haven't heard before. :ROFLMAO:

I guess the greater Manchester area is somehow now merely a just "warm spot". Greater Manchester county covers one of the largest metropolitan areas in England.

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"It is absolutely vital.......that we don't delude ourselves that somehow we are out of the woods or that that is all over, because it isn't all over." - Boris Johnson
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Obviously, Nigel, you are still clinging to the same playbook, twisting yourself into a pretzel attempting to convince everyone of your questionable narrative that England is all sweetness and light on the pandemic front. Still with the same arrogant air of nationalist superiority, looking down your nose at anyone and everyone. Still completely sidestepping all the salient points in my posts about some of the reprehensible positions you take when you demean other nations and their peoples. Still avoiding answering to your repeated libelous insults directed at revered figures like Dr. Fauci.


This deadly virus affects literally ALL of us the world over and it will be with us for a long time. As a planetary population dealing with a deadly pandemic we should all be supporting one another and caring about one another, regardless of the varied situations in each nation rather than comparing death rates, and even worse, condescendingly criticizing other nations while making empty boasts about one's own country. Viewing the pandemic as a zero sum game, as some sort of macabre contest, while attempting to present the UK as some sort of "winner" and portraying other nations as "losers" is counterproductive and shameful.
 
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I guess the greater Manchester area is somehow now merely a just "warm spot".
Yes, and it is good to see the testing finding such a high proportion of the cases.
Like Trump says, when you do more testing you find more cases, and when the testing is highly targeted you find even more, and as a result the real number of cases keeps dropping :)

From the official infection survey, there are clearly no significant outbreaks in Manchester or anywhere else: "Looking at trends over time, there is no clear evidence to say that COVID-19 infection rates have changed over the most recent six-week period in any region." - the less cases there are the more difficult and longer it gets to deal with the last few, we end up with an exponential curve where getting to zero takes almost infinitely long.

Good to see that we are still on that decreasing exponential curve. Using hospital admissions so the graph isn't affected by testing success or misappropriated causes of death, it is clear that R and the growth rate are stable and heading in the desired direction:

The R number range for the UK is 0.8-1.0 and the growth rate range is 0% to -5% per day as of 7 August 2020.
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This deadly virus affects literally ALL of us the world over and it will be with us for a long time. As a planetary population dealing with a deadly pandemic we should all be supporting one another ...
Well the USA isn't supporting anyone else, you pulled out of the WHO, and you are now on your own, you wont be getting any vaccine unless it is produced in the USA, and nobody wants to produce vaccine in the USA because Trump is likely to steal it, just like he is attempting to steal TikTok and claim its wealth for his own use!
 
Japan to be vaccinated in time for the Tokyo Olympics:

Q&A: "We expect to manufacture 1 billion doses by the end of 2020/early 2021. We will then start on the subsequent manufacturing cycles with each cycle taking 3-6 months until we reach up to 4 billion doses within 2 years."

China agreement for manufacture:


As a planetary population dealing with a deadly pandemic we should all be supporting one another
The other global problem - "It's us vs them"..."for the president to come and attack us during these times in a pandemic..." o_O
 
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Yes, and it is good to see the testing finding such a high proportion of the cases.
Like Trump says, when you do more testing you find more cases, and when the testing is highly targeted you find even more, and as a result the real number of cases keeps dropping :)

From the official infection survey, there are clearly no significant outbreaks in Manchester or anywhere else: "Looking at trends over time, there is no clear evidence to say that COVID-19 infection rates have changed over the most recent six-week period in any region." - the less cases there are the more difficult and longer it gets to deal with the last few, we end up with an exponential curve where getting to zero takes almost infinitely long.

Good to see that we are still on that decreasing exponential curve. Using hospital admissions so the graph isn't affected by testing success or misappropriated causes of death, it is clear that R and the growth rate are stable and heading in the desired direction:

The R number range for the UK is 0.8-1.0 and the growth rate range is 0% to -5% per day as of 7 August 2020.
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Well the USA isn't supporting anyone else, you pulled out of the WHO, and you are now on your own, you wont be getting any vaccine unless it is produced in the USA, and nobody wants to produce vaccine in the USA because Trump is likely to steal it, just like he is attempting to steal TikTok and claim its wealth for his own use!

Just another doubling down of the same partisan political screed and propaganda we always get from you along with some further nation bashing thrown in for good measure. And of course, at all costs you are still avoiding the issues I raised that are at the heart of the matter since you launched your spurious attack on Dr. Fauci.

At the same time you had another 871 cases reported yesterday and 758 more so far today. You are on track for another 5,300 or more cases per week on an upward curve. The truth of the matter, despite the rosy picture you keep trying to paint is that cases are beginning to spike in the UK. After the disastrous "herd immunity solution" debacle early in the pandemic the UK did a commendable job lowering the curve but now things appear to be falling apart and a spike in reported cases is emerging as a deadly second wave approaches.

Like I said previously, you can smear all the lipstick you wish on the pig, but it is still a pig.

It is disheartening that you insist on viewing the pandemic as a nationalistic contest and your notion that being supportive of each other is a political issue rather than a human one.

You are beginning to come off like a sad caricature of yourself, Nigel. :ROFLMAO:

Amusing that you chose a chart that offers different data (hospital admissions) than that under discussion (newly observed cases). But you are not fooling anyone.

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Whether a 'second wave' has begun or we're just seeing the results of not handling things well from round one, it's clear that in many places including the UK there's a resurgence happening that may last until late fall or early winter when virus, flu, and colds historically have an upswing. The 'leaders' who have chosen the wrong paths in addressing this are already doomed as they've traveled too far along to be able to reverse their losses- they are done for and that won't change either. The people of the world in general are not going to tolerate having those people who have made those bad decisions involved with their affairs any further, and with the whole world against you there's no way to do anything more than bow out as gracefully as you can while you've still got something left- otherwise you'll lose it all. So there's no point in attacking them; they're already mortally wounded as far as leadership goes and our energies are better spent in trying to find a better way forward from here.

The biggest failure evident in all this has been a failure to act immediately in response to this. Every nation is guilty of making this mistake. We could not have known that Covid-19 was going to turn into a pandemic but there could have been earlier efforts made toward developing a vaccine, and there could have been far earlier efforts made to contain it once it's very contagious nature became known. We have to get past thinking of nations, policies, and economics when it comes to potential pandemics because without healthy people all over this world nothing else matters.

Phil
 
Amusing that you chose a chart that offers different data (hospital admissions) than that under discussion (newly observed cases). But you are not fooling anyone.
If you want to use a chart of positive test results then you have to adjust for changes in testing or it will not show trends correctly, but such a chart is hard to find. When you do adjust, the UK trend is not surprisingly similar to the hospital admissions chart, with cases decreasing.

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Seems we are now doing about 2.5x the testing per person that the USA is doing, and with such a huge number of tests for such low numbers of cases there is now another problem with the testing:
The potential for false-positives (those people without the disease who test positive) to drive the increase in community (Pillar 2) cases is substantial, particularly because the accuracy of the test and the detection of viable viruses within a community setting is unclear.
Using hospital admissions as a guide to what is really happening is sensible, people only go to hospital when they are actually sick, the numbers are accurate and comparable throughout the epidemic.
 
If you want to use a chart of positive test results then you have to adjust for changes in testing or it will not show trends correctly, but such a chart is hard to find. When you do adjust, the UK trend is not surprisingly similar to the hospital admissions chart, with cases decreasing.

View attachment 52909

Seems we are now doing about 2.5x the testing per person that the USA is doing, and with such a huge number of tests for such low numbers of cases there is now another problem with the testing:

Using hospital admissions as a guide to what is really happening is sensible, people only go to hospital when they are actually sick, the numbers are accurate and comparable throughout the epidemic.

Just more gobbledygook spin from you Nigel. It's the Dunning–Kruger effect at work, a phenomenon first described by the social psychologists David Dunning and Justin Kruger 20 years ago regarding a cognitive bias defect where people believe they are a lot smarter than they really are and in the process not have the ability to perceive the fact that they're really not so smart after all, particularly when the subject is outside their wheelhouse. It is related to another cognitive bias know as illusory superiority (see: wiki) which has been on display in spades from you since the early days of this thread and indeed all over this forum on practically a full time basis. You always present yourself as the smartest guy in the room regardless of the subject, even when you don't have a clue what you are talking about.

Early on after the pandemic began there was a fascinating interview with Dr. David Dunning that focused specifically on people who do what you are doing here in regard to the SARS CoV-2 pandemic and have been since the very beginning of this thread. It explains quite a lot about what we have observed in your posts and in your attitudes.


 
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Using hospital admissions as a guide to what is really happening is sensible, people only go to hospital when they are actually sick, the numbers are accurate and comparable throughout the epidemic.

Not accurate because it does not account for the many asymptomatic carriers who will test positive, nor will all people who only feel slightly unwell seek medical intervention or advice. I offer myself as an example: In the last two days I've been coughing quite a lot. I've experienced constipation and some looseness of my stool too. I've had some shortness of breath and tightness in my chest, at times very noticeable. I may have had a fever. I've had some loss of taste and smell. All these are noted as being symptoms of Covid-19 but I've done nothing about them. Why? Because I'm fairly sure I know the causes which are unrelated. I don't go to see Doctors or Hospitals until I know there's definitely a problem I can't handle without them. I can't afford unnecessary medical visits. And I know dozens of people who are much like me in this.

So I could have Covid-19 which testing would help confirm or deny, but unless I take a big turn for the worse I won't be seeking medical help and I won't be included in any hospital admissions numbers. And here where I live the hospitals have informed the public to not show up there unless you're severely ill, but to first see your Doctor and let them decide whether hospitilazation is needed. And for those who test positive for Covid-19, you're to quarantine at home and not go to any hospital unless absolutely necessary. So hospital admissions do not reflect the true numbers of who has this disease and in fact will necessarily omit large numbers of infected people, whereas testing will catch every case and count them as accurately as we are currently able to do.

So only testing numbers count, and only testing numbers have meaning when measuring the extent of this disease.

Phil
 
The smartest man in the room isn't the man who knows the most standing in the center with everyone's attention- it's the unknowledgeable man sitting quietly in the corner who says "I do not know, but I want to learn" then proceeds to do that ;)

Phil
 
Not accurate because it does not account for the many asymptomatic carriers who will test positive, nor will all people who only feel slightly unwell seek medical intervention or advice. I offer myself as an example: In the last two days I've been coughing quite a lot. I've experienced constipation and some looseness of my stool too. I've had some shortness of breath and tightness in my chest, at times very noticeable. I may have had a fever. I've had some loss of taste and smell. All these are noted as being symptoms of Covid-19 but I've done nothing about them. Why? Because I'm fairly sure I know the causes which are unrelated. I don't go to see Doctors or Hospitals until I know there's definitely a problem I can't handle without them. I can't afford unnecessary medical visits. And I know dozens of people who are much like me in this.

So I could have Covid-19 which testing would help confirm or deny, but unless I take a big turn for the worse I won't be seeking medical help and I won't be included in any hospital admissions numbers. And here where I live the hospitals have informed the public to not show up there unless you're severely ill, but to first see your Doctor and let them decide whether hospitilazation is needed. And for those who test positive for Covid-19, you're to quarantine at home and not go to any hospital unless absolutely necessary. So hospital admissions do not reflect the true numbers of who has this disease and in fact will necessarily omit large numbers of infected people, whereas testing will catch every case and count them as accurately as we are currently able to do.

So only testing numbers count, and only testing numbers have meaning when measuring the extent of this disease.

Phil

Hope you feel better soon and don't have COVID. :nurse:
 
My birth town have flared up lie a SOB with more than half of recent new cases being in that town on Friday, and of those many are in immigrant circles i think predominantly EX Somali people.
And today Saturday 79 new cases out of 169 new cases on a national level.
So people supposed to start school / education on Monday, well they have been told to not come in just yet, and 5 million face masks are on the way to Aarhus ( dont even live 1 mill people there )
other regions are shifting towards Aarhus with supply and manpower.

Aarhus are just the next municipality right south of where i live.

A graph of the corona cases in Aarhus the last month. ( no numbers for the weekend or that is i think they are added to the number for Mondays, so potentially we could well have a bad Monday in Denmark )

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Danes do act like corona never happened, some young punk was going the Malaga Spain, cuz he deserved to be free,,,,,,,, well duh dude :rolleyes:
Lets just hope he just kill people from his own family.

This pestilence are not over yet, a small breath of air from another direction and BAM your country are right back in the mess.
So dont you think you are in the clear.
 
This pestilence are not over yet, a small breath of air from another direction and BAM your country are right back in the mess.
So dont you think you are in the clear.
That rise on your graph looks almost like the Melbourne outbreak, and that has lead to full lockdown. You should have a bit more immunity than them, but not enough to go playing in the nightlife of Malaga! Hopefully those cases are from contact tracing and they have them all, but that seems very unlikely with that number?
 
Not accurate because it does not account for the many asymptomatic carriers who will test positive,
It certainly doesn't come close to including all the cases, but it should give a good indication of the up/down trend because the counting method is consistent over time. Just looking at positive test results does not give a good indication of trends in our current situation.

Hope you get better soon from whatever it is.
 
A slaughter house are also shut down now, many of the new cases in the past 3 days are from there, mainly among the floor workers, that are often not Danish but more like Polish ASO
Mask use in public transport are also mandatory in Aarhus now, but i dont think they have rolled back anything there yet, but that might happen soon if this keep up or get worse.
 
Haha, of all people you choose Doug Ford to quote.
Did you disagree with what he said?


Bill Gates:
"There have been lots of meetings, but we haven’t been able to get the US to show up."
"The irony is that this is a president who is a vaccine skeptic. Every meeting I have with him he is like, “Hey, I don’t know about vaccines, and you have to meet with this guy Robert Kennedy Jr. who hates vaccines and spreads crazy stuff about them.” "
"We called the CDC, but they told us we had to talk to the White House a bunch of times. Now they say, “Look, we’re doing a great job on testing, we don’t want to talk to you.” "
"Well, that’s just stupidity. The majority of all US tests are completely garbage, wasted."
 
If you want to use a chart of positive test results then you have to adjust for changes in testing or it will not show trends correctly, but such a chart is hard to find. When you do adjust, the UK trend is not surprisingly similar to the hospital admissions chart, with cases decreasing.


Seems we are now doing about 2.5x the testing per person that the USA is doing, and with such a huge number of tests for such low numbers of cases there is now another problem with the testing:

Using hospital admissions as a guide to what is really happening is sensible, people only go to hospital when they are actually sick, the numbers are accurate and comparable throughout the epidemic.

Speaking of spin, Nigel, this chart you posted arbitrarily ends on July 30th, but that's not when the spiking trend in UK COVID cases began.

Why do you keep focusing on hospital admissions? There have been 65,000 excess deaths recorded in the UK since February and most of the victims didn't die in hospitals. Many were found dead in their homes.

The current discussion has been around the suddenly rising spike in cases in the UK, occuring exactly a month after the national free-for-all July 4th pub crawl and all that. You know, the one where crowds of drunken revelers without masks or any social distancing were throwing beer bottles at retreating squads of police officers.

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