Nigel
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I'm not convinced that there is a difference in life span for current automotive top coat, the hardening is a chemical reaction even for the water based versions, it produces a layer of polyurethane plastic which is the same in both cases.The difference is probably based on the worm hole size.
Although a few paints such as POR-15 chemically harden most paints lose the paints liquid through evaporation. The liquid whether solvent or water needs some kind of tunnel or worm hole to escape from the paint. These holes are microscopic. It could be that water creates bigger holes creating a weaker paint bond when water to evaporates from the paint compared to solvent and that is why water based paints do not last as long.