COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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More likely to be a result of where the people were born, it doesn't explain why the country with the second highest proportion of blood group A, Norway at nearly 50% of the population, is near the top of the infections/population list (just behind Spain), but has had only 7 deaths? Denmark and Sweden are also high, while China, Italy Spain with high death numbers are significantly lower.
 
More likely to be a result of where the people were born, it doesn't explain why the country with the second highest proportion of blood group A, Norway at nearly 50% of the population, is near the top of the infections/population list (just behind Spain), but has had only 7 deaths? Denmark and Sweden are also high, while China, Italy Spain with high death numbers are significantly lower.
That was not meant as the "main" cause.
It might depend on lot of factors, median age, where it spread, ....
Rarely there is just ONE cause, but a combination of many which could explain high(er) death rate.
 
Revisiting this story for a moment, I just learned the fun fact that the STOCK Act is an acronym which stands for "Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge - Act", passed by the Senate 96-3 and which Senate Intel chair Richard Burr (R) was one of only three Senators to vote "NAY". The other two were Thomas Coburn and Jeff Bingaman, a Republican and a Democrat.
Integrity is not the first thing that comes to mind when you think of a politician.
 
Absolutely brilliant- everyone needs to give this a read (y)
I did watch some of that TED talk, but in all honesty I skipped parts and didn't pay a lot of attention because I already knew that the principles being discussed were true and that the numbers could be horrific- just like we're seeing now.

Our world has always been ripe for epidemics and pandemics, now more than ever with our rapid and large international traveling and our massive population. Plus our social systems lumps people into mega-cities where outbreaks can be past any measures of control before we even realize they are occurring. We set ourselves up for things like this so they will happen. Not sure that we've got an easy alternative though, as decentralizing will lose the benefits it gives us :unsure:

And what you posted earlier about economics- so true. We're operating on economic principles which if extended to the end of the path they prescribe simply must end in complete failure :eek: But one thing they cannot ever change is that the real value of anything is inherent in it- even if we assign a higher value to it for whatever reasons. So basing value on growth is ignoring the first part and seeing only the second one ;)

Local cases here almost doubled yesterday. Those are in the big town 20 miles distant except for one case where the test results haven't been compiled but the symptoms highly indicate they will be positive, and there's already been spread to an elderly relative with that case. Just 10 miles from here, and people there and here both frequent the city between us, so it might be here in my town now, undetected but spreading. Not a happy thought.

Stay safe everyone!
Phil
 
Interesting potential use of Big Brother to make sure we're all staying at home, or not congregating in large groups

Ministers are asking phone operators if they can use mobile data to help monitor whether people are following social distancing advice
 
Well you also need the personnel to operate them.
Wishful thinking. Source the part, manufacture and test them.
If the make some parts in 3d printing those parts will need to be validated, they are different from the actual design.
Assembly 2000/day...don't know.
These are medical device, no matter how simple they might be, still I guess you'd want to have them produced in a modern and safe way (and those certification process have a greater importance than the pure industrial assembly one)
Unlike a lot of people, I've been through this. Last year, my wife contracted pneumonia and it progressed into ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome), which is what is happening to critically ill COVID-19 patients. That required that she be in a medically induced coma and on a ventilator for 19 days. After the 19th day, she was transferred to a longterm acute care facility, where she was weaned off the ventilator over a two week period. It took her those two weeks to become fully conscious, and even then she suffered from ICU delirium for another two weeks.

When you get ARDS, your lungs become hard and you can no longer breathe on your own. It takes a long time and a lot of drugs to get you well again. She spent a month in the hospital, a month in the long-term acute care facility, and a month in a rehab facility.

I found out later that her chances of survival were 10%. (She is diabetic, has high blood pressure, and has suffered from asthma her entire life - almost died from it several times.)

The doctors tried hard to get me to pull the plug. They told me my wife had very little chance of survival. One doctor told me at least five times, "If a healthy 18-year-old boy had what your wife has, he would have a 50% chance of survival." The message was quite clear. And they were telling the truth. But I held on, and she eventually recovered.

If she got COVID-19, I don't think she'd have a snowball's chance in hell of surviving, and I suspect the doctors if they were overwhelmed with patients, would pull the plug without my approval. That's the hard reality of something like this.

That's why we haven't left the house (except for a brief no-contact foray) since the middle of last week. We're not taking any chances because we know how brutal this can be. It took her ten months to fully recover and even now she has to take (self-administered) breathing treatments daily.

In order to properly operate a ventilator, you need to be a fully qualified respiratory technician under the supervision of a pulmonologist. You aren't going to produce those overnight. What's going to happen is that retired respiratory techs and pulmonologists will be pressed into service as well as students who are still learning and people who have left the hospital setting and moved into other lines of medical work. (If it gets to that point.) And hard decisions will have to be made about who lives and who dies. This is serious stuff. Deadly serious.
 
Today's Danish numbers.

Total tested: 10730
Confirmed infected: 1255
Hospitalized: 186
In ICU: 37
On ventilator: 32
Total deaths: 9

In comparison in Italy 627 have died within the past 24 hours.
 
So, for the Danes, 11.7% of tested were infected. 14.8% of those infected were hospitalized. 20% of those hospitalized were in ICU. 5% of those hospitalized died. 0.7% of those infected died. 0.7% is the number the experts in the US are saying is the likely mortality rate. That's seven times as deadly as the flu.
 
So, for the Danes, 11.7% of tested were infected. 14.8% of those infected were hospitalized. 20% of those hospitalized were in ICU. 5% of those hospitalized died. 0.7% of those infected died. 0.7% is the number the experts in the US are saying is the likely mortality rate. That's seven times as deadly as the flu.
"On 11 March, the Danish Health Authority announced a change of strategy, which means that only people hospitalized with severe signs of respiratory illness or shortness of breath, will be examined for COVID-19 infection. As a consequence, COVID-19 is being under-reported and health officials expect the actual number to be significantly higher than the number reported. "

It was at one time estimated to be 1000 to 1.
 
"On 11 March, the Danish Health Authority announced a change of strategy, which means that only people hospitalized with severe signs of respiratory illness or shortness of breath, will be examined for COVID-19 infection. As a consequence, COVID-19 is being under-reported and health officials expect the actual number to be significantly higher than the number reported. "

It was at one time estimated to be 1000 to 1.
OK. Now think about that for a moment. If they only examine really sick people, then, assuming arguendo, that your theory is correct, and the number of infects ARE grossly underreported, then that means that the virus is even less deadly than initially thought. For example, let's assume only 20% of the cases are actually reported due to severe illness. Let's say that the number is 1,000. Then there are actually 5,000 infected persons. Let's further assume that 5% of that 1,000 die. That means that the actual mortality rate is 1%.

People who do epidemiology studies work with estimates all the time because it's simply not possible to know, for example, if someone who never sought treatment had the flu. So, when they calculate that the actual mortality rate of COVID-19 is around 0.7%, I tend to believe they know what they're talking about.
 
OK. Now think about that for a moment. If they only examine really sick people, then, assuming arguendo, that your theory is correct, and the number of infects ARE grossly underreported, then that means that the virus is even less deadly than initially thought. For example, let's assume only 20% of the cases are actually reported due to severe illness. Let's say that the number is 1,000. Then there are actually 5,000 infected persons. Let's further assume that 5% of that 1,000 die. That means that the actual mortality rate is 1%.

People who do epidemiology studies work with estimates all the time because it's simply not possible to know, for example, if someone who never sought treatment had the flu. So, when they calculate that the actual mortality rate of COVID-19 is around 0.7%, I tend to believe they know what they're talking about.
Following the March 11th change in testing, the daily increase dropped to 1/10th it's previous value, which I think means that if they hadn't made the change then the infected figure today would be about 20 times what it is, and the real figure is a lot bigger than that.

I very much doubt that the actual morality rate in Denmark will be more than 0.1%, currently it is far less than that because all the initial infections where in people who had been skiing in Austria, they were not elderly, so they didn't die. Depending on how well they isolated their elderly they may end up well under 0.1%.

Denmark is unusually low on deaths, don't expect similar figures in the USA.
 
Denmark is unusually low on deaths, don't expect similar figures in the USA.
Currently, the US mortality rate is 1.4%, and testing is just now coming online in significant numbers. I expect it will drop noticeably as testing ramps up. We will never test everyone, and there will always be undetected cases due to their asymptomatic nature.
 
Yes in this graph of total cases VS new cases you can see a spike back around the 12 where new cases dropped off, with whatever they did for testing before that red line would probably have followed the other line up.

graf.jpg

But the red line is climbing again :( but at least some way up to 250 new daily cases again.
 
Taiwan seem to have been doing really good throughout this, but for some reason China are blocking for the rest of the world to learn why they do so well there.


Taiwan on Wednesday.

92157474-2409-4fbe-a0fb-707c7b15f9ea.jpg
 
Currently, the US mortality rate is 1.4%, and testing is just now coming online in significant numbers. I expect it will drop noticeably as testing ramps up. We will never test everyone, and there will always be undetected cases due to their asymptomatic nature.
Also, a lot of people only test positive for a few days, so you are very likely to miss them even if you do test.

Yes, your mortality rate is certain to drop, and you are likely to start only testing the hospital patients after a while which will push it up again. Currently your testing isn't matching the other countries so drawing comparisons with other countries is very dodgy.
 
Taiwan seem to have been doing really good throughout this, but for some reason China are blocking for the rest of the world to learn why they do so well there.
Taiwan was managing to stop it spreading, but they seem to have either lost control in the last few days or chosen to follow most other nations rather than copying China.

But the red line is climbing again :( but at least some way up to 250 new daily cases again.
It is going up smoothly as expected, as long as the hospitals are still coping then it is fine. In a few weeks time it will start coming down again.
 
Yeah, so far i think only 10% of ventilators are in use, and that's the hospital ones not counting animal clinic ventilators.
But Danish doctors are feeling the strain, and also posted news today urging Danes to be careful with the virus but also no stunts where you might risk braking a leg or something like that.
Also for savings in the past decades Danish hospitals have seen cutback after cutback, and some also prudent as hospitals of old here was just burning thru tax payer money.
But maybe this will teach some to be more vigilant about how they assign the Danes taxes,,,,,,,, a thing i have asked for decades, cus with the amount of tax we Danes pay shouldent our country be a little better than those around us, or surely not worse,,,,,, cuz to me that would indicate something is wrong.
 
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If we do it at the same number as Italy then it is a week away, but Italy had a problem that all the cases were concentrated in a small area and they couldn't cope in that area, the UK appears to have spread them all out fairly evenly, so the 10000 figure is probably not relevant, especially if the London lockdown brings London back in line with the rest of the country. At some point the amount of immunity we have will start to slow the infections, and that may start to take effect before we need a total lockdown, even if it doesn't, the lockdown is likely to be quite short. Also, keeping the schools open will have spread the load on the hospitals out over time so that the peek is reduced, reducing the need for lockdowns.

Let's hope closing the schools today was the right decision, I guess there is a danger children will spread it around to the elderly as they don't understand the gravity of the situation. That said, I went out to get some food and medicine for my mother, I was in a queue for about 30 mins getting some potatoes, and I would say about 90% of the queue was over 70, I think us British can be quite stubborn.
 
Just remember that even the high death toll in italy is under reported, nursin home for elderly are having very high death rate.
In one of the, during the last 10 days there have been 20 deaths (30% of all guests) of which only one have been reported due to coronavirus because it's the only one who has been tested. All others showed same symptoms

Other nursing home are also reporting a lot of deaths (unusually high) and high rate of infections both among personnel and guests.
 
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