COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

[Nigel]

So the Aussies probably wait for a good Danish vaccine too.

The Aussies have a problem with choosing a vaccine. Fauci has been saying he will approve a vaccine that is at least 50% effective, and he will be delighted if he gets one that is 70% effective, doesn't seem to be expecting it to be that high. In the UK, if we get a vaccine that is 10% effective, that is good enough, added on to our current immunity, for us to reach full herd immunity, but in Australia 10% would be considered useless, even 50% means that after a year of lockdown sacrifices, if they use the vaccine and open their borders, they are still going to have half the deaths, which is going to be unacceptable!

So if your Danish vaccine is 99% effective, you will have a really good market for it, but only from Australia, New Zealand and a few small islands! Nobody is expecting it to be anywhere near that high though.

 

[Nigel]

Closing your borders isn't enough, must be carried by seagulls
Herd immunity is the only workable solution.

New Zealand has recorded four new cases of Covid-19, after more than 100 days without any community transmission of the disease, the prime minister, Jacinda Ardern, has announced at a late-night press conference.

Auckland was swiftly put under a three-day lockdown after four cases were confirmed in one family there. The family had not travelled overseas and the source of the infection is unknown.

New Zealand records first new local Covid-19 cases in 102 days

Auckland to enter lockdown as Ardern confirms four members of a family have tested positive

www.theguardian.com

 

[kamkar]

Putin now claim to have a vaccine, but i doubt it will see approval in the EU or US anytime soon, and not CUZ Putin is a mad dog / loose cannon, but rather the extremely high standards for a vaccine to be approved.

I think most vaccines will not be super good in their V 1.0 state, you probably have to wait until V 3.0 before they get really good.

 

[Dashmellow]

If UK has achieved herd immunity where does Australia go next?

There are some early signs the United Kingdom could be approaching herd immunity, which may shine a spotlig...

www.9news.com.au

Note that Prof. Mathews has changed his message 180 degrees from earlier in the epidemic:

Australia is dependent on getting a vaccine, and trying to negotiate for the Oxford vaccine:

There is no evidence that the UK has achieved herd immunity to date. At this point, it is mere speculation from several researchers theorizing that it "may' be possible. The article you linked to points out that, "the latest British data would need to be assessed in about a fortnight in "the cold light of day".

One theory being put forth is that herd immunity may exist because populations have previously been exposed to other coronaviruses but if that were true we would not have had a pandemic of this nature with such high death rates in the first place. With 20,317,430 COVID cases having been reported to date world-wide , it suggests that populations that have previously been exposed to other coronaviruses are not at all immune to SARS-Cov-2. The likelihood that a large enough percentage of the British population has been infected to achieve significant herd immunity is quite remote. This is after all, a "novel" virus and it has only been circulating in the general population for six months. Beyond that we absolutely don’t know as yet how strong the immune protection is or how long it will last in people who’ve had COVID-19.

The only hard evidence regarding "herd immunity" is from the Lancet epidemiological study of SARS-Cov-2 seroprevalence in Spain, published July 7th. 2020 involving more than 61 000 participants, which revealed a national prevalence of only 5%.

The Lancet report concluded that Covid-19: Herd immunity is “unethical and unachievable"

 

[Dashmellow]

Coronavirus herd immunity may be 'unachievable' after study suggests antibodies disappear after weeks in some people

• The study found that despite Spain being one of the worst affected countries by COVID-19, "prevalence estimates remain low and are clearly insufficient to provide herd immunity." More than 28,000 people in Spain have died after catching the coronavirus.
• A major new study in one of Europe's worst affected countries for the coronavirus finds no evidence of widespread immunity to the virus developing.
• Just 5% of Spaniards were detected to have antibodies to the virus.
• Fourteen percent of people who previously tested positive for antibodies tested negative just weeks later.
• The study suggests people who experience mild symptoms do not have long-lasting protection.
• "Immunity can be incomplete, it can be transitory, it can last for just a short time and then disappear," Raquel Yotti, the director of Spain's Carlos III Health Institute, said.
• Another scientist involved said: "In light of these findings, any proposed approach to achieve herd immunity through natural infection is not only highly unethical, but also unachievable."

 

[Dashmellow]

The Lancet - Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain (ENE-COVID): a nationwide, population-based seroepidemiological study

 

[Nigel]

Lockdown supporters cannot bear the thought that Sweden has got it right

An honest appraisal of how the Scandinavian country has fared raises plenty of awkward questions for politicians in the rest of Europe

www.telegraph.co.uk

The only hard evidence regarding "herd immunity" is from the Lancet epidemiological study of SARS-Cov-2 seroprevalence in Spain, published July 7th. 2020 involving more than 61 000 participants, which revealed a national prevalence of only 5%.

And who says that 5% is not enough?
OK, Spain is currently having problems, so maybe it is 10% that is needed. There is currently no evidence to suggest that more than 10% is needed.

 

[Nigel]

I think most vaccines will not be super good in their V 1.0 state, you probably have to wait until V 3.0 before they get really good.

Remember that the vaccine does not provide the protection, all the vaccine does is trigger the human immune system to prepare protection, so a vaccine is likely to either work or not work. A better V3.0 version can't be expected to give better protection, only give more chance of triggering the immune system. Once we have one that works sufficiently well to give enough immunity to reach full herd immunity, that is all that is required, after that the vaccine companies would do better to switch to producing other cold vaccines now they know how to do it, and maybe we can eliminate the common cold too.

 

[Dashmellow]

Lockdown supporters cannot bear the thought that Sweden has got it right

An honest appraisal of how the Scandinavian country has fared raises plenty of awkward questions for politicians in the rest of Europe

www.telegraph.co.uk

And who says that 5% is not enough?
OK, Spain is currently having problems, so maybe it is 10% that is needed. There is currently no evidence to suggest that more than 10% is needed.

Ross Clark is a highly opinionated OpEd columnist who engages in exactly the same sort of arm-chair amateur epidemiologist punditry that you do, Nigel.

When the world's leading scientists, researchers and epidemiologists readily admit that they do not yet have all the answers regarding SARS-Cov-2, immunity concerns or vaccine trial outcomes of various approaches being investigated, and that it will be some time before those questions are resolved, it is remarkable, and rather unfortunate that we get opinionated newspaper columnists and self appointed internet forum pundits like you who claim to have it all figured out.

 

[Nigel]

Ross Clark is a highly opinionated OpEd columnist who engages in exactly the same sort of arm-chair amateur epidemiologist punditry that you do, Nigel.

Well he does have a good point about Sweden, and all opinions should be considered, it is possible that an expert such as Fauci does occasionally get something wrong!

Sweden's death rate has recently dropped below both UK and Australia, and that is very hard to explain without herd immunity since Sweden doesn't have a lockdown and Melbourne has full lockdown. With herd immunity it is easy to explain, for Sweden and UK the epidemic is over, for Australia it is just starting, unless they can get it back under control, which with full lockdown it looks like they will, until they unlock again:

 

[Dashmellow]

Well he does have a good point about Sweden, and all opinions should be considered, it is possible that an expert such as Fauci does occasionally get something wrong!

Sweden's death rate has recently dropped below both UK and Australia, and that is very hard to explain without herd immunity since Sweden doesn't have a lockdown and Melbourne has full lockdown. With herd immunity it is easy to explain, for Sweden and UK the epidemic is over, for Australia it is just starting, unless they can get it back under control, which with full lockdown it looks like they will, until they unlock again:

View attachment 52950

Very mixed results overall in Sweden so far with uncertainty and anxiety going forward.

How Did Sweden Flatten Its Curve Without a Lockdown?

"One expert credits a "good-enough strategy"; others worry that it won't last."

"On a per-capita basis, Sweden far outpaces its Scandinavian neighbors in COVID deaths, with 567 deaths per million people compared with Denmark's 106 deaths per million, Finland's 59 deaths per million, and Norway's 47 deaths per million. The Swedish figure is closer to Italy's 581 deaths per million."

"In Sweden, the strategy has led to death, grief, and suffering," they wrote. "On top of that, there are no indications that the Swedish economy has fared better than in many other countries. At the moment, we have set an example for the rest of the world on how not to deal with a deadly infectious disease."

Sweden prepares for possible second wave of COVID-19 in autumn

*************************************************************************************************************

UK experts fear up to 120,000 Covid-19 deaths this winter

"Preparations to avoid second wave worst-case scenario in NHS hospitals ‘must start now’"

Winter wave of coronavirus 'could be worse than first'

 

[kamkar]

I read Sweden was commended on their approach,,,,,,, but unsure if it was by clowns or the WHO or whoever, these pestilence news i tend to skip pretty fast.
Even with numbers going up here, shutting down like we already did once are not on the table, but regional curfews might be a thing of the future, maybe also mask use in public spaces.

 

[Nigel]

Dr. Mike Ryan, the WHO’s top emergencies expert:
“I think if we are to reach a new normal, Sweden represents a model if we wish to get back to a society in which we don’t have lockdowns,”

 

[Dashmellow]

Dr. Mike Ryan, the WHO’s top emergencies expert:
“I think if we are to reach a new normal, Sweden represents a model if we wish to get back to a society in which we don’t have lockdowns,”

Assuming you are willing to tolerate vastly higher death rates!

Of course, Nigel, we know from so many of your posts that killing off as many individuals as possible to achieve an uncertain and as yet unproven herd immunity is something you strongly advocate.

 

[SawMaster]

And who says that 5% is not enough?
OK, Spain is currently having problems, so maybe it is 10% that is needed. There is currently no evidence to suggest that more than 10% is needed.

Of course neither 5% or 10% is enough when 90%+ of the people will be fully vulnerable. Even a third immunity could only at best slow an outbreak down. Common sense logic makes that patently clear to those who use it. Everything I've read about "herd immunity" (and that's a lot) says that it has to reach 40 to 60%+ levels before the remaining cases will reach an acceptable level, and that means the "herd" in question will still be catching and spreading it for as long as the disease remains viable against them, but only in smaller numbers. And nobody who is respected in the Medical or Scientific communities is yet willing to state with certainty that surviving Covid-19 offers even short-term immunity against it much less any long-term immunity, which is necessary for "herd immunity" to be effective at all And this doesn't even factor in any possibility of mutations (which we know do and will happen) being able to bypass a body's immunity defenses.

Nobody knows why the "Spanish Flu" went away. What is known is that the 'second wave' was a lesser mutation which wasn't as strong as the first. Covid-10 may follow that path but the possibility remains that through mutating it could become stronger- again we don't know why that happens but in some cases it does. Counting on anything other than widespread vaccinations against Covid-19 is a gamble, one made with human lives, and not one I'm willing to see being made Even vaccines are a gamble, but with much better odds of succeeding, and since they're the best we can do that should be the universal approach being taken until we can learn how to kill or neutralize harmful viruses before they can harm large numbers of people.

Phil

 

[jokiin]

One theory being put forth is that herd immunity may exist because populations have previously been exposed to other coronaviruses but if that were true we would not have had a pandemic of this nature with such high death rates in the first place.

the way it was explained here is not that people have immunity from previous strains of coronaviruses as such, but that the people that did have exposure to previous variants seemed to be less affected themselves by this one, mild symptoms, asymptomatic cases etc, while that seems to allow them to better deal with it themselves it is thought that they can still spread it to others that are not so lucky with the effects

 

[jokiin]

Everything I've read about "herd immunity" (and that's a lot) says that it has to reach 40 to 60%+ levels before the remaining cases will reach an acceptable level, and that means the "herd" in question will still be catching and spreading it for as long as the disease remains viable against them, but only in smaller numbers.

same sort of numbers I keep hearing here

 

[SawMaster]

New Zealand has just discovered 4 new cases which apparently have no connections to outside of their island Nation, and they have announced a lockdown of the involved area to contain it, plus a rolling-back of the loosened restrictions they had done until they can contact-trace, test, and control anyone involved and infected.

Until effective vaccines can be deployed, islands like this who are pretty much self-sustaining overall can succeed with this approach very well- their own results prove this. Non-isolated nations and those who are highly dependent on outside people and supplies do not have this option, and thus cannot defend against Covid-19 as well. Singapore has done fairly well with a similar approach, as have smaller places like the Faroes. And it is all because they can isolate well and they did.

So it must make one wonder what would have happened had the Eurasian continent been isolated before Covid-19 was 'exported' from there? Would that have saved the rest of the world similarly as it has there more easily isolated places?

Food for thought

Phil

 

[Nigel]

the way it was explained here is not that people have immunity from previous strains of coronaviruses as such, but that the people that did have exposure to previous variants seemed to be less affected themselves by this one, mild symptoms, asymptomatic cases etc, while that seems to allow them to better deal with it themselves it is thought that they can still spread it to others that are not so lucky with the effects

The same is likely to be true with the vaccines, certainly in the long term, they will prevent you getting more than a cold, but not stop the spread.

 

[jokiin]

The same is likely to be true with the vaccines, certainly in the long term, they will prevent you getting more than a cold, but not stop the spread.

in which case there will need to be a large percentage of the population vaccinated or they'll just keep spreading it to people that are susceptible, the rest of the herd is going to be dead and buried otherwise