COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

[SawMaster]

Viruses die fairly quickly without a 'host', and while there can be some spread from those who are infected, it has been well shown that the worst contagion possibilities occur only after the virus has successfully attacked the host, which vaccines will prevent. Thus any spread from vaccinated persons will be much weaker in nature and much smaller in scale. This has not yet been documented as happening among those who have caught and survived Covid-19; there have been numerous reinfection cases where the host was as contagious the second time as they were the first. This is one of vthe most vexing problems found with Covid-19 to date, as it wasn't believed likely, or even possible. So again we can't count on natural "herd immunity" with Covid-19 being effective.

Phil

 

[Nigel]

Common sense logic makes that patently clear to those who use it. Everything I've read about "herd immunity" (and that's a lot) says that it has to reach 40 to 60%+ levels

If you are in a meat packing plant then you will need far more than 60%, but most meat packing plants already have far more because they have already been infected!

There is much of the world where it really hasn't spread very fast, much of Africa for example, there 5% extra immunity may easily make the difference between slow spread and no spread. Even in Southern USA, it didn't spread much until the summer arrived and the conditions for virus spread improved, it might not have needed much immunity to stop it taking off. Other places like New York, it spread easily and maybe an extra 60% was needed there. It is definitely not as simple as it having to be 60%+, all that is required is that R is brought under 1.0, then the virus will die out, but R depends on many things.

 

[jokiin]

There is much of the world where it really hasn't spread very fast, much of Africa for example, there 5% extra immunity may easily make the difference between slow spread and no spread.

'The surge is upon us': Fears over South Africa's 'hidden' coronavirus death toll

There has been a reported 59 per cent increase of people dying of 'natural causes' in South Africa since the pandemic began.

au.news.yahoo.com

 

[SawMaster]

The surge here in the Southeast US came mainly from the stupidity of governments and people becoming less restricted about movement, crowds, and the very important social distancing. A very large percentage of the population here acts just the same as they did before Covid-19 came to us, and of course the results we're seeing is what that gives you

Things here in SC are getting somewhat better, but only because most of the cities having more than one traffic light have instituted mask ordinances, and even though our crappy Governor doesn't like it, the schools which are now re-opening but are closing the schools and are going back to online-only classrooms when they find one case of Covid-19 among the students going to that school We put up with our rednecks and religious wackos, but nobody gets away with endangering children here- a fact Governor McMaster is going to learn first-hand when the next election comes 'round

Phil

 

[Nigel]

Things here in SC are getting somewhat better, but only because most of the cities having more than one traffic light have instituted mask ordinances, and even though our crappy Governor doesn't like it, the schools which are now re-opening but are closing the schools and are going back to online-only classrooms when they find one case of Covid-19 among the students going to that school

The real reason that things are getting better in SC, and in much of the rest of the USA, is that you are approaching the same level of immunity, and deaths, as Sweden. The facemasks are slowing the spread slightly so that it takes a little longer to reach the point at which you can properly reopen those schools, but you will get there before your government gets around to approving a vaccine, at which point it will be questionable if a vaccine is needed, probably only worthwhile to give it to the elderly and other high risk people along with the normal winter flu jab.

As Trump has consistently pointed out, it is going to go away by itself, and in most of the USA more or less gone before the date of the election, his attempts to make it go away well before the election have been hampered by many states and people not fully ending lockdown, but there will not be much virus left by November. The lockdowns, masks, etc. have just extended the duration, not saved lives, except where they have been to avoid hospital overload. Lives could have been saved by copying Australia, at great economic cost, or by getting a vaccine out sooner, which is probably the most important thing to get sorted for next time, we have apparently got vaccine development time down from 5 years to 10 months, for a coronavirus 5 months must be possible without significantly compromising safety - should have listened to Bill Gates! Instead, once again yesterday, USA had 23% of the global covid deaths, making good progress towards herd immunity.

Completely different situation in Australia, where if they successfully maintain their elimination strategy until their vaccine arrives sometime next year, they will need a highly effective vaccine, and as jokiin points out:

in which case there will need to be a large percentage of the population vaccinated or they'll just keep spreading it to people that are susceptible, the rest of the herd is going to be dead and buried otherwise

 

[kamkar]

As i recall the infection number here / in the municipalities that are seeing numbers going up is 1.4, meaning everyone with corona infect 1.4 other people.
Now 1.4 dont seem all that bad, but it can spiral out of control fast, as seen in the municipalities here with spiking numbers, they went from 1-2 new cases daily to 70 overnight.

 

[jokiin]

As i recall the infection number here / in the municipalities that are seeing numbers going up is 1.4, meaning everyone with corona infect 1.4 other people.
Now 1.4 dont seem all that bad, but it can spiral out of control fast, as seen in the municipalities here with spiking numbers, they went from 1-2 new cases daily to 70 overnight.

everything I've seen so far seems to suggest anything above 1 is too high

 

[kamkar]

Indeed, it is the first step on a steep stairwell where the steps get smaller and smaller and after a few meters or so it turn into a slide instead.

 

[Nigel]

Now 1.4 dont seem all that bad,

If you multiply 70 by 1.4 35 times then you exceed the population of Denmark! That would take 3 or 4 months.
1 70
2 98
3 137
4 192
5 269
6 376
7 527
8 738
9 1033
10 1446
11 2025
12 2835
13 3969
14 5556
15 7778
16 10890
17 15246
18 21344
19 29882
20 41834
21 58568
22 81995
23 114793
24 160710
25 224994
26 314992
27 440988
28 617383
29 864337
30 1210072
31 1694100
32 2371740
33 3320437
34 4648611
35 6508056

 

[kamkar]

Yes but i dont think the infection number will stay at 1.4 if it get out of control, it will probably also go up by some factor, maybe double every 2 weeks or something.

 

[Nigel]

Yes but i dont think the infection number will stay at 1.4 if it get out of control, it will probably also go up by some factor, maybe double every 2 weeks or something.

It almost always drops, has to drop to zero by the 35th generation because there is nobody left to infect!

 

[Nigel]

New Zealand has just discovered 4 new cases which apparently have no connections to outside of their island Nation, and they have announced a lockdown of the involved area to contain it, plus a rolling-back of the loosened restrictions they had done until they can contact-trace, test, and control anyone involved and infected.

Apparently one of them worked at a chilled food importer, so possibly it survived importation, maybe time to be a little more careful of chilled food, switch to dried food instead!

 

[Nigel]

England's covid death counters have decided to change their definition of a covid death, they had to because the numbers were starting to look ridiculous, if they had used the new definition from the start then they would have counted 5377 less deaths (12.8%)!



However they have now decided to use two different counting methods and report both numbers, neither of which match the original, so now nobody will know how many deaths we have, or how many we should have had. At least until now we knew how many, even if we also suspected it was wrong!

Based on the PHE assessment, it was decided that from 12 August, the PHE data series would be revised to include 2 measures: deaths in laboratory-confirmed positive individuals where the death occurred within 28 days, and deaths within 60 days or if the death occurred after 60 days, COVID-19 is listed on the death registration. Both measures will be published daily on the GOV.UK dashboard and weekly in the PHE surveillance report.

4. What are the implications of this change? The number of people counted as having died from COVID-19 will be lower as a result of this review, and the total fatalities will be updated retrospectively to reflect this.

 

[Dashmellow]

Sounds like UK has decided to cook the books on the COVID death count! It's that Liptick-on-a-Pig thing again.

1,148 new cases reported yesterday. Highest number since June 26th!

 

[Nigel]

Sounds like UK has decided to cook the books on the COVID death count! It's that Liptick-on-a-Pig thing again.

Correct the books, not cook them! The counts were clearly wrong and steadily getting less and less accurate.

Do pigs get ticks on their lips? That sounds very unpleasant

This meant that by the end of May...

Why on earth are they still analysing May figures, looked like USA was doing OKish in May!
It will be the excess deaths once it is all over that will tell the true story.

 

[Dashmellow]

Correct the books, not cook them!

As for newly reported cases, 1,148 yesterday and 1,009 today (so far). Definitely a spiking trend line.





UK scientists openly question government’s pandemic response

LONDON (AP) — As Britain navigates its way through the coronavirus pandemic, the government insists that science is guiding its decisions. But a self-appointed group of independent experts says it sees little in Britain’s response that is evidence-based, especially after an upturn in new cases forced a delay in lifting more lockdown restrictions

Coronavirus: UK's pandemic planning an 'astonishing' failure, say MPs

 

[kamkar]

Today we have 0 people on ventilator, thats the first time since March some time.
16 in hospital and just 1 in ICU.

But we have gotten 111 new infected in the past 24 hours, and thats out of just shy of 15.000 tested in the same period.

 

[Nigel]

Argentina to co-produce coronavirus vaccine with Mexico

President Alberto Fernández confirms Argentina and Mexico will co-produce millions of doses of a coronavirus vaccine developed by scientists at the University of Oxford and Swedish-British pharma firm AstraZeneca.

www.batimes.com.ar

President Alberto Fernández has announced that Argentina and Mexico will co-produce millions of doses of a coronavirus vaccine developed by the AstraZeneca pharmaceutical firm and scientists at the University of Oxford, with it potentially reaching citizens across Latin America in the first quarter of next year.

The Peronist leader, speaking at a press conference at the Olivos presidential residence on Wednesday, said that the two countries would be in charge of the “Latin American production” and distribution of a vaccine created by the prestigious British university and Swedish-British pharmaceutical group.

Argentina will be in charge of producing "the active substance," said Fernández, with Mexico finishing "production and packaging."

"It's beautiful news, a hopeful piece of information and a source of great pride that we can work together with Mexico to provide an answer for our beloved continent," he added, while cautioning that the vaccine was still in phase three trials and not yet fully proven to be effective. Fernández said the deal “gives Argentina the peace of mind of being able to have the vaccine when required and at a reasonable price. He stressed that it was a “non-profit” project and praised those involved.

"It is a non-profit project, we must celebrate the decision of the company and the University of Oxford, which are guaranteeing a vaccine without profit and without the economic benefits for that vaccine. We celebrate that," he said, adding that the vaccine would cost between US$3 to US$4 a dose, an “accessible” price for Argentina.

The vaccine developed by scientists at the University of Oxford and the AstraZeneca laboratory is one of the most advanced scientific efforts to combat the coronavirus so far. According to respected medical journal The Lancet, it "proved to be safe for the immune system and to have produced antibodies against Covid-19."

Only Canada left on the American continents:

U.S., Europe pre-ordered millions of COVID-19 vaccine doses. Why hasn’t Canada? - National | Globalnews.ca

The Canadian government hasn't signed any advance purchase agreements for vaccine doses, unlike the U.K. and the U.S., which have ordered millions of doses to date.

globalnews.ca

 

[SawMaster]

To me anyway, it doesn't seem wise to pre-order large quantities of something which hasn't really been proven safe and effective, so Canada might be making a good choice here as they will still have a choice, whereas most countries won't be able to afford a second choice if their first pick doesn't work out What really irks me about this is that it seems the pharmaceutical makers are into this as much for profit as they are for humanity, and the 'pre-order' approach by governments is only going to choke the supply of vaccines to nations who cannot ofr have not pre-ordered, costing lives somewhere

I think that having adequate healthcare should be a human right, not a privilege for only those who can afford it. There's enough wealth in this world to have that everywhere if we would just change our views a little

Phil

 

[Nigel]

The pre-ordering is being used to set up the manufacturing operations, and for the vaccines that are going to be sold at cost like the Oxford vaccine, the cost of setup has to come from somewhere other than the manufacturer. Bill Gates and GAVI are funding some of it, but that is going to fall a long way short of what is required. So I think there is not much choice but for the wealthy nations to pre-order and thus fund the setup of manufacture, either by governments as in UK or billionaires like Carlos Slim in Mexico and Bill Gates in India, and the other nations to then benefit from the non-profit sales, but with the disadvantage of having to wait, but somebody will have to wait anyway since we can't produce 7 billion doses in a single day.

Seems a better situation to me than with the Moderna vaccine which even though it was government funded, will be sold at profit, low profits for USA and high profits for everyone else, which for many will mean unaffordable! The ideal would be for every country to contribute to the global effort run by the WHO and for the results to be shared out based on need, but Trump put a stop to that!

Canada is now grouped with the nations that can't afford to contribute, or maybe those that don't want to contribute