COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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I'd warn against drawing conclusions: it seems different countries are using different ways to record death cause.
And if you look at data sometimes is just due to confirmation/delays in communication, hence you see a drop which rebound the following day.
You will need lot of testing and prolonged drop for all data before drawing conclusions about improvements.
I am a bit skeptic, unless I will not see massive mask use and precautions similar to those used in Korea/Taiwan/Hong Kong.
 
nighthawks.webp
 
IMHO another rather interesting article about "herd strategy"
www.theguardian.com

The UK’s Covid-19 strategy dangerously leaves too many questions unanswered | Anthony Costello

The coronavirus outbreak can be suppressed as China and others have done, but we need to act now, says academic Anthony Costello
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

Just to mention again that this virus is tricky, South Korea despite positive decreasing numbers noted:
"....
Officials warned that β€œsporadic outbreaks” continued in the hardest-hit areas, such as the southeastern city of Daegu.

The new outbreaks were from unknown sources in other cities, Kim said, adding, β€œThis implies the coronavirus is spreading across the country.”

One new cluster surfaced in Seongnam city south of Seoul, the capital, where at least 40 members of a Protestant church tested positive, including the pastor, after services on March 1 and March 8, despite government calls to cancel mass gatherings....."
 
"Chinese doctors said that it is better to wait and not get infected with the COVID-19 virus, because a new version of COVID-20 will be released in September. Also in the COVID-20 Pro and COVID-20 Plus line"

Stages of " extinction of mankind":
2001: anthrax infection will kill us all.
2002: the West Nile Virus will kill us all.
2003: SARS will kill us all (severe acute respiratory syndrome).
2005: avian flu will kill us all.
2006: E. Coli is going to kill us all.
2008: a bad economy will kill us all.
2009: Swine flu will kill us all.
2010: BP Oil is going to kill us all.
2011: Obamacare is going to kill us all.
2012: the" End of the world " predicted by the Mayans will kill us all.
2013: North Korea will kill us all.
2014: Ebola will kill us all.
2015: Disney Measles and ISIS will kill us all.
2016: zika will kill us all.
2017: Fake news will kill us all.
2018: migrant Caravans in Mexico will kill us all.
2019: Measles will kill us all.
2020: the Coronavirus will kill us all.

One of the worst days for Coronavirus was February 10. On that day, 108 people in China died from the coronavirus.

BUT, on the same day ...
26283 people died of cancer
24,641 people died of heart disease
4,300 people died from diabetes, and on this day, unfortunately, suicide claimed 28 times more lives than the virus.

Take a deep breath and wash your hands. The devil is not so terrible as they paint him...
 
Matt_V939 said:
IMHO another rather interesting article about "herd strategy"
Click to expand...
"The WHO policy – practised by China, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong – is to keep things damped down until drugs and a vaccine are available. Vaccines are a safer way to develop herd immunity, without the risks associated with the disease itself. Is it wise or ethical to adopt a policy that threatens immediate casualties on the basis of uncertain future benefit? "

Of course vaccines are a safer way, but we don't have a vaccine for covid-19, so how long are they expecting to keep people locked up in isolation? The answer would have to be "indefinitely".

Matt_V939 said:
Officials warned that β€œsporadic outbreaks” continued in the hardest-hit areas, such as the southeastern city of Daegu.
Click to expand...
Sporadic outbreaks are inevitable as soon as any lockdown is relaxed.

So it is a choice, indefinite isolation for the entire population, or herd immunity with freedom and associated risks, or herd immunity with the elderly isolated until herd immunity is achieved, which brings freedom and safety to all.

It is known that children are at almost zero risk, so that is an easy 1/3rd of herd immunity with almost zero risk and very little load on the hospitals, just by keeping the schools open, the children will spread it to their young parents who are also at close to zero risk, so that gets us to 2/3rds, by then infection rates will be getting very slow and the hospitals will be able to cope easily. The price of freedom is quite low, while the expectation of everyone getting a vaccine within the next year should be close to zero, but there seem to be an awful lot of extremely optimistic people about, more a case of religious belief in medical science than real science! Until the last few days, Denmark had the 4th highest % of infection, but zero deaths because their elderly had not been infected, good evidence that herd immunity can safely be achieved.
 
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Cases in my State have about doubled in the last 36 hours, and that now includes 3 in my metro area. My last take-out food/ dining out until this is over was yesterday morning. I will go to work today in extra-caution mode, and after one more trip to the grocery store afterwards only work will see me out in public. And I'm seriously considering not working until this is over but financially I really can't afford that happening- what little savings I have took many months to gather and aren't a lot, so I really need at least another week's wages to get through. I don't work with many people, but of them I'm being near folks from 7 different homes, and most of these guys won't be nearly as careful as me regards staying clean and not working if they're feeling the least bit ill. I'm probably the only one of us keeping things disinfected and avioiding human contact as much as is possible, and monitoring their body temperature πŸ˜’

My personal take on things is that we need to be very aware of where we are and what we touch, and that ain't easy. Faucet handles, doorknobs, cabinet handles, drawer pulls, car door handles, steering wheels, shifters, parking brakes- wow, we really touch a lot of things constantly without much thought 😱 And any one of them can end up with this virus on them so needs disinfecting after every time we touch it after being exposed to anything else we've touched- and doubly so when we've touched something out of our range of control to access like public doors, fuel pump nozzles and so on. Pay attention to this in what you do today and you'll see what I mean- it's nearly impossible to keep your hands disinfected πŸ™ And now keep those things within your control clean on top of that. Darn near a full time job in itself.

For most of you this might be overkill- if you get this it will probably be similar to having the ordinary flu- but for me there is a good chance it will kill me if I catch it because of my lung issues 🀒 Maybe I should 'bug out'; I do have a place I can go where I'd have good control of what gets touched and by whom and the chance to keep it clean, and where only a very few people will be anywhere near me. It won't be as pleasant as being at home but I've got to consider it carefully. Sheesh, I don't want to be paranoid but I don't want to die of this stuff even if I don't give a hoot about dying in general terms πŸ™„ It's tough to know just what to do and when and to me that is the most worrisome part.

Phil
 
Nigel said:
....


Sporadic outbreaks are inevitable as soon as any lockdown is relaxed.

So it is a choice, indefinite isolation for the entire population, or herd immunity with freedom and associated risks, or herd immunity with the elderly isolated until herd immunity is achieved, which brings freedom and safety to all.

......
Click to expand...

It's not black/white.
Sporadic outbreaks CAN be controlled.
It's a massive outbreak which cannot be controlled.
It's not either total lockdown and indefinite isolation or total freedom with (non existing) herd immunity.
 
SawMaster said:
. Pay attention to this in what you do today and you'll see what I mean- it's nearly impossible to keep your hands disinfected πŸ™
Click to expand...
Gloves, ones that can be washed with soap and water are fine, and they also help stop you touching your face with your hands, which is an extremely difficult thing for a human to avoid! Also keep enclosed spaces well ventilated, don't replicate the cruise ships!
 
Nigel said:
But your government needs to make a choice, it is one or the other, freedom or imprisonment.
Click to expand...

Well, in South Korea/taiwan there is freedom w/o imprisonment.
"contain" that's not magic, it is science + social behaviour.
 
Matt_V939 said:
Well, in South Korea/taiwan there is freedom w/o imprisonment.
"contain" that's not magic, it is science + social behaviour.
Click to expand...
South Korea has been doing a good job, but too much optimism, the press are looking for success stories and the South Korean's like to be optimistic, but their figures are not that good!

www.npr.org

How A South Korean City Is Changing Tactics To Tamp Down Its COVID-19 Surge

Daegu, the center of South Korea's coronavirus outbreak, tries to figure out an effective way to tackle the disease.
www.npr.org www.npr.org
 
@Nigel I'm still not "sold" on the 'herd immunity' approach with this- there are several known cases of reinfection so how can we be certain that anyone will develop an immunity to it? That's still an unknown factor here. And consider further that if that approach doesn't seem to be working to the rest of the world, the most likely result will be a complete isolation of the UK by the rest of us, with nobody allowed in or out until infections reach a level commensurate with what the rest of the world achieves through it's different and more proven control methods. It's clear to see that every nation's government is willing to close borders; we're almost all doing that already. It's betting everything on one number out of many with utter ruin the result if you're wrong 😱 It's not necessary to make that bet nor is it wise when there are safer bets to make which have been proven to at least somewhat win.

I hope it works for you but if it doesn't it's been nice knowing all of you, sorry we couldn't help you when you needed it the most but we have our own selves to think of first.

Phil
 
SawMaster said:
@Nigel I'm still not "sold" on the 'herd immunity' approach with this- there are several known cases of reinfection so how can we be certain that anyone will develop an immunity to it? That's still an unknown factor here. And consider further that if that approach doesn't seem to be working to the rest of the world, the most likely result will be a complete isolation of the UK by the rest of us, with nobody allowed in or out until infections reach a level commensurate with what the rest of the world achieves through it's different and more proven control methods. It's clear to see that every nation's government is willing to close borders; we're almost all doing that already. It's betting everything on one number out of many with utter ruin the result if you're wrong 😱 It's not necessary to make that bet nor is it wise when there are safer bets to make which have been proven to at least somewhat win.

I hope it works for you but if it doesn't it's been nice knowing all of you, sorry we couldn't help you when you needed it the most but we have our own selves to think of first.

Phil
Click to expand...
If it doesn't work then we can cancel at any time. If we give up having reached only 30% immunity, that still means that we are half way to herd immunity and our uncontrolled infection rate will be half (? I think it would actually be a lot less than half) other countries and so it will then be considerably easier to contain the virus.

Note that we do not intend our infection rate to ever become too high for the hospitals to cope, the difference is only that we will not be trying to reduce it towards zero from what the hospitals can cope with, until it does so naturally as the virus dies out.

I think the reinfection cases are probably insignificant to reaching herd immunity, if it was a rapidly mutating virus then we would already know about it, coronaviruses are not like flu viruses, they are cold viruses that only come around again occasionally because people remain immune or partially immune for a long time.

Closing borders is not scientifically necessary now that it has spread to nearly every country, especially closing them to a country which is immune and so can't spread the virus!

For people with lung issues, your best choice, like the elderly, is isolation either way, but with herd immunity it should come to an end before the end of the year, our government is saying 4 months, instead of being indefinite. Given your financial situation, which is best?
 
If it doesn't work then by the time you discover this, "cancelling" will be pointless as the whole nation will be seriously infected by then, as bad or worse than what anyone else has experienced. Many or most health care workers will be out of action by then, ditto on food producers, and essentially nobody will be able to produce anything or perform any job due to a complete lack of people able to keep businesses going. A total and complete economic and social collapse with no chance for a recovery. Yes it could happen this way- think about it. This exactly is where the biggest risk to this approach lies; you could find yourselves going out of control to the very bottom unable to stop, with the struggle to get back up to the top of the hill taking many months- maybe many years. And little to nothing awaiting you when you do get back on top of things.

In making any serious decisions you must always consider the worst-case-scenario because sometimes that's what happens. And if you can avoid having things get to that point by making a different decision then that's what you need to do. Nobody who gambles everything wins in the end, even if it does bring a huge win sometimes. Those who gamble more carefully might not win as often or as big, but they win more in the end. Wishing you good luck for you're going to need that more than you seem to think.

Phil
 
SawMaster said:
Many or most health care workers will be out of action by then, ditto on food producers, and essentially nobody will be able to produce anything or perform any job due to a complete lack of people able to keep businesses going. A total and complete economic and social collapse with no chance for a recovery. Yes it could happen this way- think about it.
Click to expand...
Thankfully Kamkar provided data on his country, the people who were infected were the workers, and we know that none of them died, they have now had 3 elderly people die and that is it. Considering that they were the 4th most infected country by percentage of population, it is pretty certain that your worst case scenario is the exact opposite of what will happen, but we will see, looking at the graph a few posts above, I see the UK coming out the bottom of the main pack, not shooting off to infinity with a health care crisis!
 
Comparison btw 2 different italian Province, LODI where lockdown took place from feb 23 on (the cluster source first identified) and BERGAMO where lockdown started last week (sunday the 8th).
Seems promising, but have to say at this stage a bit premature to draw conclusions.
Lockdonw Bergamo Lodi.webp


And a study by Oxford University (Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford & Nuffield College, UK) on lockdown and demography

OSF

osf.io osf.io
 
The Oxford article is interesting- we do need that info to know exactly what's going on but right now I think that everyone is too busy to get it all together. Hopefully change soon!

Phil
 
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