COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

[Nigel]

I don't know of course but I suspect the reason a lot of people are hesitant about the AZ vaccine (aside from media influencing their thinking) is that there have been mixed messages with different countries having different restrictions about which age groups should or shouldn't have the AZ vaccine, if one country says my age group shouldn't have the vaccine and my country says it's the one I should have, what should I make of that, in a world where nobody trusts the messenger anymore it can be very confusing to say the least

It is not just the vaccines, it should be much easier for the EU to decide on travel rules, but!

A week ago, the UK announced a list of green/orange/red countries for unrestricted travel/requiring home quarantine and tests/requiring hotel quarantine.

[Withdrawn] Travel to England from another country – COVID-19 rules

Check if there are any COVID-19 rules in place for travel to England from abroad.

www.gov.uk

The only EU country that we put in the green list was our allies in Portugal, who responded by declaring that we can holiday there unrestricted:

Portugal to allow UK tourists from Monday

The government in Lisbon says anyone arriving will need to take a negative PCR test before departure.

www.bbc.co.uk

So then the EU held a meeting that was supposed to announce on Friday that UK can travel to EU with ? restrictions, however it didn't go well, and Spain, not wanting Portugal to take all the UK holiday makers, unilaterally announced early in the day that the Spanish Tourist industry would welcome UK:

Spain to allow UK holidaymakers to visit from Monday

Spain will allow British travellers into the country without a negative PCR Covid test from May 24, the country’s government has said.

www.standard.co.uk

So the meeting declared that a decision would be made sometime in the future:

EU to delay adding UK to travel ‘white list’ due to Covid variant

Rising number of British B.1.617.2 cases to push back Brussels decision by two weeks

www.theguardian.com

Now Germany has retaliated against Spain by banning UK:

Germany to bar visitors from UK over Covid variants of concern

From Sunday, people travelling from Britain may only enter country if they are German citizen or resident

www.theguardian.com

And then finally UK was the only country to receive zero points in Eurovision 🤣

UK humiliated at Eurovision as James Newman gets ZERO points - and Italy win

THE United Kingdom has been humiliated at Eurovision – with James Newman getting ZERO points from the public and the juries. Britain was the only country to not pick up a single point and cam…

www.thesun.co.uk

 

[jokiin]

It is not just the vaccines, it should be much easier for the EU to decide on travel rules, but!

travel restrictions is another influencing factor here why people aren't rushing out and getting vaccinated, the thought is why bother if we can't go anywhere anyway, there's some pressure being applied to government currently to come up with a firm reopening date for that reason

 

[Nigel]

travel restrictions is another influencing factor here why people aren't rushing out and getting vaccinated, the thought is why bother if we can't go anywhere anyway, there's some pressure being applied to government currently to come up with a firm reopening date for that reason

The main reason should be that the more vaccinated the world becomes, the more incentive there is for more highly spreadable variants to evolve, and if one of them manages to escape your quarantine then it will be too late for everybody to get their vaccines before they start dying! I don't expect that is going to happen, but it is sensible to get vaccinated as soon as possible.

Another problem is that many "experts" are saying that the immunity from the vaccines may only last 6 months, and that provides a good reason for people to want to wait until just before reopening before they get vaccinated. In reality the immunity probably lasts a lifetime, but no "experts" are saying that despite reasonably good evidence to support it, it is not proven, but is likely, just like we only ever have 1 measles vaccination.

 

[Peter_R]

In reality the immunity probably lasts a lifetime, but no "experts" are saying that despite reasonably good evidence to support it, it is not proven, but is likely, just like we only ever have 1 measles vaccination.

...and there are other vaccines that follow that course. Yellow fever comes to mind. I had to be vaccinated every 10 years, but now it is deemed to be effective enough to give lifetime immunity.

 

[SawMaster]

Another problem is that many "experts" are saying that the immunity from the vaccines may only last 6 months, and that provides a good reason for people to want to wait until just before reopening before they get vaccinated. In reality the immunity probably lasts a lifetime, but no "experts" are saying that despite reasonably good evidence to support it, it is not proven, but is likely, just like we only ever have 1 measles vaccination.

Ah, the messenger thing Jokiin refers to. "We don't know" isn't what people want to hear, so somebody tosses in their opinion which someone else takes as 'fact' then it all gets muddled 🙄 What is certain is that it takes time for any vaccine to become fully effective, so delaying it isn't a sensible approach. And if it does transpire that a booster is needed for variants or longer-term protection, then we're pretty much set up to deal with that already as best we can be.

Delaying getting the vaccine is like not getting health, car, or life insurance because you aren't expecting to need it for the foreseeable future. There are enough cases where that logic has proven itself wrong to also prove it is not intelligent to have that kind of view at all. All these things are not predictable so the only smart thing to do is to gain your protection ASAP.

Phil

 

[Nigel]

Ah, the messenger thing Jokiin refers to. "We don't know" isn't what people want to hear

The message was that "We do know that it lasts 6 months.", but many people interpreted that as "We do know that it only lasts 6 months.", because nobody got the message across that it quite likely lasts a lifetime, and the faster people get the vaccines, the less chance there is of a vaccine resistant variant evolving; there should be far more effort being made to achieve herd immunity everywhere and stop the evolution, and hopefully eradicate it completely, which currently looks feasible with a bit of international effort.

 

[kamkar]

First plane with tourists left for Spain 2 days ago here, there is a curfew from midnight to 6 in the morning down there, and out on the town you have to wear a mask .
The Danes just want to kick back at the pool, and feel the sun.

 

[Dashmellow]

Another problem is that many "experts" are saying that the immunity from the vaccines may only last 6 months, and that provides a good reason for people to want to wait until just before reopening before they get vaccinated. In reality the immunity probably lasts a lifetime, but no "experts" are saying that despite reasonably good evidence to support it, it is not proven, but is likely, just like we only ever have 1 measles vaccination.

It is ridiculous to suggest that COVID-19 vaccines provide lifetime immunity. Only self-appointed internet "experts" makes such claims. The fact is that actual "experts" admit that we just don't know yet since the vaccines have been in use for less than a year and we are still in a highly dynamic state of flux in the midst of a pandemic that is still raging and evolving. The durability of vaccine induced immunity is usually determined in phase-3 studies that are conducted over a period of several years. That has not occurred yet due to the current circumstances. Ordinarily, vaccines would never have been deployed so quickly, much less developed in such a short period of time.

Measles and Mumps are classified as "stable viruses" as they rarely mutate. For this reason, immunity lasts a lifetime. Measles is also a virus that is confined to humans only, whereas coronaviruses exist in various species and jump between them as they evolve. Coronaviruses have a very high mutation rate, so immunity tends to be short lived. Evidence from SARS and MERS suggests that immunity is more durable but there is no evidence that immunity is likely to be permanent. At the current time immunologists believe that Covid-19 vaccinations may offer immunity for anywhere from nine months up to several years before requiring a booster shot.

How Long Will COVID-19 Vaccine Immunity Last?

Research is underway to understand how long COVID-19 vaccine-based immunity willl last and whether regular revaccination will be necessary.

www.aarp.org

 

[kamkar]

I think if it do, then it will be one of very few that last a lifetime ( as i understand it )

I read they just found a new covid version in dogs.

 

[Nigel]

Measles and Mumps are classified as "stable viruses" as they rarely mutate.

Wrong, they will have as many mutations as coronavirus, they are both RNA viruses and replicate in the same way!

Measles is also a virus that is confined to humans only, whereas coronaviruses exist in various species and jump between them as they evolve.

Measles jumped into humans from cattle in the year 528 BCE +- a few years.

Coronaviruses have a very high mutation rate, so immunity tends to be short lived.

They continuously mutate, but that doesn't mean they frequently evade existing immunity.

Evidence from SARS and MERS suggests that immunity is more durable but there is no evidence that immunity is likely to be permanent. At the current time immunologists believe that Covid-19 vaccinations may offer immunity for anywhere from nine months up to several years before requiring a booster shot.

The immunity for SARS-CoV-1 is still working fine after 18 years, with no evidence to suggest it will need a booster within a lifetime.
We don't know how long immunity to covid 19 will last, but we know it lasts more than nine months, those "experts" keep having to adjust their estimates!

 

[kamkar]

I think most things probably jumped into humans at some point as we was scarse back then, now when we are all over the place things jump from us, like rats leaving a sinking ship.

 

[Dashmellow]

Wrong, they will have as many mutations as coronavirus, they are both RNA viruses and replicate in the same way!

Measles jumped into humans from cattle in the year 528 BCE +- a few years.

Measles is a different class of virus than coronavirus. The measles virus evolved from the now eradicated but formerly widespread rinderpest virus, which infected cattle. Studies suggest that rinderpest and measles most probably diverged in the 11th and 12th centuries though may date back as early as the 5th century.

Humans are the natural hosts of the measles virus; no animal reservoirs are known to exist. Measles is an extremely stable virus in humans.

Spontaneous mutation rate of measles virus: direct estimation based on mutations conferring monoclonal antibody resistance - PubMed

High mutation rates typical of RNA viruses often generate a unique viral population structure consisting of a large number of genetic microvariants. In the case of viral pathogens, this can result in rapid evolution of antiviral resistance or vaccine-escape mutants. We determined a direct...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

"The mutation rates we estimated for measles virus are comparable to recent in vitro estimates for both poliovirus and vesicular stomatitis virus. In the field, however, measles virus shows marked genetic stability."

Researchers Clarify Why Measles Doesn’t Evolve to Escape ImmunityDiscovery's Edge

Unlike SARS-CoV-2, which mutated into new strains in its first year as a human disease-causing virus, measles virus does not [...]

discoverysedge.mayo.edu

They continuously mutate, but that doesn't mean they frequently evade existing immunity. The immunity for SARS-CoV-1 is still working fine after 18 years, with no evidence to suggest it will need a booster within a lifetime.

SAR COV-1 was an epidemic not a pandemic. It is not understood why it disappeared but it is not because of universal immunity. There were other factors at play and both the COV-1 and COV-2 viruses are proving to be quite different in many respects. For example, SARS COV-1 was shown to be more susceptible to summer heat. SARS COV-1 was exclusively a respiratory virus, whereas SARS COV-2 has a powerful vascular component. Some scientists even classify it as a vascular disease with an interstitial pneumonia with varying degrees of severity.

COVID-19 as a Vascular Disease: Lesson Learned from Imaging and Blood Biomarkers - PubMed

COVID-19, a disease initially thought to be prominently an interstitial pneumonia with varying degrees of severity, can be considered a vascular disease with regards to serious complications and causes of mortality. Quite recently, blood clots have emerged as the common factor unifying many of...

pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

The mysterious disappearance of the first SARS virus, and why we need a vaccine for the current one but didn’t for the other

COVID-19 and SARS are both deadly – but different. SARS symptoms were quick to appear, making it easier to contain. Because health officials were able to contain it, the virus died off.

theconversation.com

We don't know how long immunity to covid 19 will last, but we know it lasts more than nine months, those "experts" keep having to adjust their estimates!

What I actually said was, "immunologists believe that Covid-19 vaccinations may offer immunity for anywhere from nine months up to several years."

Why did you ignore the full quote? As usual, when you try to justify your arguments, you ignore what I actually say in my posts, ignore the facts or change the subject!

And, as I've asked so often without receiving any answer whatsoever, how could it be that you have more knowledge and expertise about virology, immunology and epidemiology than all of the world's leading scientists who are quoted and cited in all of the articles and medical journals presented here?

 

[Nigel]

Measles is a different class of virus than coronavirus. The measles virus evolved from the now eradicated but formerly widespread rinderpest virus, which infected cattle. Studies suggest that rinderpest and measles most probably diverged in the 11th and 12th centuries though may date back as early as the 5th century.

I think that historical based story is now outdated, modern genetic studies put the jump from cattle further back:

The origins of measles: Virus diverged from cattle-infecting relative earlier than thought in history

The measles virus diverged from a closely related cattle-infecting virus in approximately the sixth century BCE - around 1,400 years earlier than current estimates - according to a new study of dozens of measles genomes.

www.eurekalert.org

Measles is an extremely stable virus in humans.

It still has lots of mutations, same as coronaviruses.

It is called "stable" because the chances of the multiple simultaneous mutations required to defeat our immunity actually happening have been shown to be very small, so happen very rarely, apparently a less than once in a lifetime event.

With covid-19 we don't currently know what the chances of a mutation that will defeat our immunity are, a year ago we had no idea, now we know that it is not a weekly or monthly event, and given the number of people infected over the last year, by the time covid-19 infections settle down, we currently know that it is going to be less frequent than a decadely event. Still wouldn't be very surprising if it happens in the next year, but that is no longer expected. Certainly it is going to average a lot longer than your "anywhere from nine months up to several years." quote, that is now a long outdated estimate.

 

[Dashmellow]

I think that historical based story is now outdated, modern genetic studies put the jump from cattle further back:

The origins of measles: Virus diverged from cattle-infecting relative earlier than thought in history

The measles virus diverged from a closely related cattle-infecting virus in approximately the sixth century BCE - around 1,400 years earlier than current estimates - according to a new study of dozens of measles genomes.

www.eurekalert.org

It still has lots of mutations, same as coronaviruses.

It is called "stable" because the chances of the multiple simultaneous mutations required to defeat our immunity actually happening have been shown to be very small, so happen very rarely, apparently a less than once in a lifetime event.

With covid-19 we don't currently know what the chances of a mutation that will defeat our immunity are, a year ago we had no idea, now we know that it is not a weekly or monthly event, and given the number of people infected over the last year, by the time covid-19 infections settle down, we currently know that it is going to be less frequent than a decadely event. Still wouldn't be very surprising if it happens in the next year, but that is no longer expected. Certainly it is going to average a lot longer than your "anywhere from nine months up to several years." quote, that is now a long outdated estimate.

Let's roll this back to the beginning to what started this discussion, Nigel. You claimed that COVID-19 vaccinations probably last a lifetime just like measles vaccine but there is, as yet, no evidence to conclude such a thing. We need to wait for observations just like in any other phase 3 vaccine studies. You are simply speculating and making claims you personally don't have the expertise to make.

In reality the immunity probably lasts a lifetime, but no "experts" are saying that despite reasonably good evidence to support it, it is not proven, but is likely, just like we only ever have 1 measles vaccination.

In addition, you are ignoring the facts and the science from the Pub Med abstract I linked: "Spontaneous mutation rate of measles virus: direct estimation based on mutations conferring monoclonal antibody resistance

I'll repeat the quote: "The mutation rates we estimated for measles virus are comparable to recent in vitro estimates for both poliovirus and vesicular stomatitis virus. In the field, however, measles virus shows marked genetic stability."

As the studies goes on to explain, the fact that the measles virus is so stable in humans is the reason that measles is "the next likely target for global elimination following poliovirus"

It is irrelevant if measles mutates in vitro (studies performed outside their normal biological context, i.e - in test tubes) What concerns us is whether the virus mutates in humans, and it does not!

Your assertion about measles vaccine is therefore a poor correlation to COVID-19 which has been shown itself to be highly prone to mutations. Unlike your erroneous claim, it is NOT "just like the measles vaccination". Only time will give us a definitive answer.

Even measles virus that has mutated has been shown to be unable to enter cells to cause infection. A study in "Cell Reports" proved that the surface proteins that the measles virus uses to enter cells are ineffective if they suffer any mutation.

"They inserted mutations across the measles genome and looked to see whether the viruses were still capable of infection. They found that measles could not tolerate any mutations to the proteins that are recognized by the human immune system, making it very unlike influenza."

Why you need one vaccine for measles and many for the flu

While the influenza virus mutates constantly and requires a yearly shot that offers a certain percentage of protection, old reliable measles needs only a two-dose vaccine during childhood for lifelong immunity. A new study has an explanation: The surface proteins that the measles virus uses to...

www.sciencedaily.com

Finally, what is the point of your link? It is in essence saying the same thing which is that "uncertainty still remains. These dates are estimates and speculations based on modeling. We know that measles mutated and broke off from a cattle virus long ago but none of this has any relevance to the modern era with measles being now dubbed, "a stable virus in humans".

 

[Kremmen]

I've seen reports saying the AZ vaccine is 60% to 90% effective. There doesn't seem to be any consistent reports.

All I know is that I've had 2 AZ shots and I'll be careful where I go for the rest of this year at least.

 

[jokiin]

I've seen reports saying the AZ vaccine is 60% to 90% effective. There doesn't seem to be any consistent reports.

same sort of numbers being talked about here, too many mixed messages, too late now I guess but had they have had a consistent message going out in all countries they might be more widely accepted than they currently are, bit of a PR disaster on their behalf

 

[Dashmellow]

The AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson vaccines are similar as both use a viral vector, which is an inactivated form of a common type of adenovirus to deliver DNA to cells to give them the instructions to develop immunity. The viral vector approach is also the factor that seems to be linked with the rare blood clotting syndrome caused by "auto-antibodies" attacking blood platelets, leading to the blood clots and low platelet counts.

Johnson & Johnson was apparently extremely cooperative with the FDA and other authorities in promptly providing all the necessary data required and requested whereas AstraZeneca has not been fully forthcoming with their data and may even have fudged some of it by providing out-of-date data. The result was that the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was quickly re-approved and placed back into service while the AstraZeneca vaccine is still in limbo. Since the early days of the first clinical trials when there was a serious reaction that caused AZ to halt the trials they've had a history of being cagey and less than forthcoming with their data and the result is that they've permanently undermined their credibility regardless of the merits of the vaccine.

 

[Nigel]

I've seen reports saying the AZ vaccine is 60% to 90% effective. There doesn't seem to be any consistent reports.

All I know is that I've had 2 AZ shots and I'll be careful where I go for the rest of this year at least.

The study on effectiveness against the South African variant seemed to use data collected over the first 3 weeks after the first dose while other studies use only data collected after the 2nd dose given at 12 weeks. With the vaccines doing almost nothing in the first 2 weeks, that gives a huge variation in numbers!

The best data from entire country studies seems to say that all the vaccines produce very similar results, with the AZ taking a bit longer to take effect but catching up and maybe (depending on which study) overtaking the Pfizer. In all cases, the effectiveness against death is close to 100%, so it is not worth worrying about effectiveness.

At last, someone is looking into the heart problem side effects after taking the mRNA vaccines (much more common than the rare blood clotting issue with AZ/J&J) :

U.S. CDC looking into heart inflammation in some young vaccine recipients

Some teenagers and young adults who received COVID-19 vaccines experienced heart inflammation, a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention advisory group said, recommending further study of the rare condition.

www.reuters.com

 

[SawMaster]

AZ dug it's own hole to fall into and it won't be climbing out. As a vaccine they're all sufficient including AZ. Oxford and AZ both entered the game touting their 'new and improved' approach and basking in the glory until by luck or else, they ended up with the first serious adverse reaction which of course stopped the trials. Somebody was bound to be the first to see such a reaction- those things do happen with all vaccines. Nothing unusual there save for their glory going missing at that point and that has never been recovered. Nor will it be.

The AZ vaccine parallels the Edsel automobile in so many ways- big cl;aims, huge promotions, denied or glossed-over problems, public distrust and rejection, admission and solving the worst of the problems but never regaining the public opinion killing the whole brand name. Sometime in the future we're going to see a 'buyout' of AZ which will be more of a paper exercise than anything changing, and a renaming of the company who will continue more or less as-is just so they can distance themselves from the bad name they've developed. And in time, just like Edsel, the people will forget about the failure and move on.

The court of public opinion, not truth or fact, is what decides success or failure. AZ didn't present it's case properly in that court so they lost their case and they will forever be associated with that failure no matter what else they achieve.

Phil

 

[kamkar]

I think the AZ and J&J vaccines are only listed here as somewhere in the 60 ties % effective.

I like a Edsel in my car collection, also like a Tucker 48,,,,,,,,, i need a big garage for my lotto cars 😏