COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

[Dashmellow]

That worked for Smallpox, and is very effective against some other nasty diseases, probably how SARS-COV 1 was wiped out.

For the gamma variant of covid-19, if you detect a new outbreak of the virus in an area with no immunity and vaccinate everyone in the area, the current vaccines have no effect for 2 weeks, and for the effect of the vaccines to reach herd immunity level where the virus dies out takes about 3 months if you vaccinate 100% of people, realistically 4 months since not everybody gets vaccinated. In that time gamma will have infected huge numbers of people inside your vaccination area and the chances of containing the gamma variant within the new outbreak area for that length of time seem to be zero unless the area is an island and all the borders are tightly sealed.

Just because something worked in the past in different circumstances, doesn't mean it will still work with current circumstances, if it did then we would have eradicated AIDS by now, in reality we don't even have a vaccine!

Fascinating that after 15 months of pounding the table insisting that herd immunity immunity is the answer you finally admit that it won't work. After accusing the authors of engaging in conspiracy theories and rubbish science you now agree with them according to your above commentary. Perhaps you should re-read the article, or at least just the title - The Forever Virus - A Strategy for the Long Fight Against COVID-19.

As usual, you present yourself as being more knowledgeable than the actual experts in the field. Here you make the case that it takes 2 weeks for the COVID vaccine to have an effect and therefore it won't work to insure herd immunity fast enough, yet you ignore or perhaps don't know that smallpox vaccinations take 3-4 weeks to become effective and with proper surveillance, management and isolation techniques along with surge vaccination programs the disease was finally eliminated from the face of the earth.

The article makes clear that the world dropped the ball and that now, "Rather than die out, the virus will likely ping-pong back and forth across the globe for years to come." - "Now, governments must come to grips with another inconvenient truth: that what many hoped would be a short-lived crisis will instead be a long, slow fight against a remarkably resilient virus."

Ultimately, it will take a twenty-first-century version of the strategy of “surveillance and containment” and later “ring vaccination” techniques using intense surge vaccine programs in hot spots where infection rates are high and then probably regular timely revisions of mRNA vaccines to contain COVID-19. The virus is likely to never go away but hopefully can eventually become managed like influenza or measles.

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[kamkar]

My post was just a joke, something i feel from time to time this thread need when some participants go head to head.

It kind of remind me of my friend, some times us talking we disagree so fiercely, my friend are very log-headed so some times i have to go and prove something on his computer, and even then he only reluctantly admit he was wrong.
But most times i just have to sigh silent inside and move on, cuz he is not wrong it is just a topic we disagree on.
For instance not long ago we talked and i said " i wish i was good at hacking, then i would go after everything public / government and expose them for what they are" to which my friend said "in that case i think you are the kind of person that should get terminated"
We can say that cuz on many other points we wholeheartedly agree on if / when people should get terminated, and we are also agreeing on the "quick fix" that if just most of us humans died that would solve all problems.

That said i would hate to always agree with my friend, that must be like talking to ones mirror image, so i am quite pleased how things are between us.

I think i have said several times that this decease dont bother me much, and if i was young i would probably care even less / not at all.
Also think i have indicated that how ever you look at it, one better take it serious'

A month or so back, newspapers found out that kids here had infect eachother parties so they could get it, get over it, get antibodies and so get corona passport.

 

[Kremmen]

My view is that, in the UK, the infections are spreading/increasing quite fast but this isn't being reflected in hospital admissions or deaths.

So, once a high proportion have had it and recovered, mostly the unvaccinated, the infection rate should start to drop naturally?

 

[Nigel]

Fascinating that after 15 months of pounding the table insisting that herd immunity immunity is the answer you finally admit that it won't work

Of course herd immunity works, it is the only way out, and in the UK we already have herd immunity to all but the delta variant. Which is why:

The most recent data show 99% of sequenced and genotyped cases across the country are the delta variant.

And the first areas to get the delta variant now have herd immunity to that too so infection numbers there are well on the way back down.

Our current 82% of adults vaccinated and 60% double vaccinated is clearly not enough herd immunity to stop all current variants unless we have a fair amount of natural immunity added on, not much room for vaccine sceptics to be allowed to roam around in public!

 

[Nigel]

My view is that, in the UK, the infections are spreading/increasing quite fast but this isn't being reflected in hospital admissions or deaths.

So, once a high proportion have had it and recovered, mostly the unvaccinated, the infection rate should start to drop naturally?

With our current vaccination rate, most parts of the country will not need many delta variant infections to achieve enough herd immunity, even the low vaccination areas that got the delta first, such as Bolton and Blackburn are now well past their peaks:

Edit: 97.6% vaccination rate for the 65+ year olds shown on that graph - the delta has helped get the numbers up and there are not many left to go!

 

[kamkar]

numbers here are still dropping, though hard to say precise as the same number of people dont get tested every day.
Today only 149 new infected

 

[Dashmellow]

Of course herd immunity works, it is the only way out, and in the UK we already have herd immunity to all but the delta variant. Which is why:

And the first areas to get the delta variant now have herd immunity to that too so infection numbers there are well on the way back down.

Our current 82% of adults vaccinated and 60% double vaccinated is clearly not enough herd immunity to stop all current variants unless we have a fair amount of natural immunity added on, not much room for vaccine sceptics to be allowed to roam around in public!

Herd immunity certainly works but not the way your government envisioned it to work or how you have promoted the concept since the pandemic began. A year ago you claimed that the pandemic was "over" in the UK simply from natural herd immunity yet there was an enormous surge peaking at nearly 70,000 new cases per day come winter without any variants being involved at that time. Even all the Quarantine Raves, AirBNB parties and pub crawls didn't provide enough herd immunity; just a lot of pain, suffering and deaths.

You continually promote a false narrative with regard to the COVID situation in the UK.

Only a week ago you said:

Appears to be very close to the peak now, certainly not going up exponentially like the press like to tell us!

Yet within the last week you had more than 65,000 new cases an increase of over 31%! No sign of any peak so far. In fact, the daily number of cases is accelerating.

Again, you seem to have missed the point of the Foreign Affairs article. That point was, "Among humans, global herd immunity, once promoted as a singular solution, is unreachable. Most countries simply don’t have enough vaccines to go around, and even in the lucky few with an ample supply, too many people are refusing to get the shot. As a result, the world will not reach the point where enough people are immune to stop the virus’s spread before the emergence of dangerous variants—ones that are more transmissible, vaccine resistant, and even able to evade current diagnostic tests".

These variants will keep coming!

 

[Kremmen]

Next move is they are investigating autumn booster jabs. This may now be an annual event or bi-annual once they know how long the vaccine works.

Others can do what they feel comfy with but I'll be being careful for years.

 

[Nigel]

A year ago you claimed that the pandemic was "over" in the UK simply from natural herd immunity yet there was an enormous surge peaking at nearly 70,000 new cases per day come winter without any variants being involved at that time.

Rubbish, UK has now had three distinct spikes, the original last year that died out in summer due to herd immunity, the more infectious alpha variant over the winter, which more or less died out by around Easter through additional herd immunity, and now the Delta variant, which is already dying out in the first infected areas but is still spreading across the country into new areas. The original herd immunity was enough for the original variant, but not the alpha variant, the additional herd immunity from the alpha variant was not enough for the delta variant, but we now have almost enough for all, and unless another even more infectious variant comes along, or a variant that can get passed the antibodies from earlier immunity then it will now die out completely. The chances of another wave are quite low, but nobody can be certain either way. What we can be certain of is that it is not going to behave like smallpox, however qualified the authors of your article may be.

 

[Dashmellow]

Rubbish, UK has now had three distinct spikes, the original last year that died out in summer due to herd immunity, the more infectious alpha variant over the winter, which more or less died out by around Easter through additional herd immunity, and now the Delta variant, which is already dying out in the first infected areas but is still spreading across the country into new areas. The original herd immunity was enough for the original variant, but not the alpha variant, the additional herd immunity from the alpha variant was not enough for the delta variant, but we now have almost enough for all, and unless another even more infectious variant comes along, or a variant that can get passed the antibodies from earlier immunity then it will now die out completely. The chances of another wave are quite low, but nobody can be certain either way. What we can be certain of is that it is not going to behave like smallpox, however qualified the authors of your article may be.

Interesting how you keep claiming the pandemic to be over but then you have another spike. Then you act like you were expecting the spikes all along. But of course, now, once again, you claim that the chances of another wave are "quite low". (but at least now you hedge about "uncertainty") But you are going to keep having spikes! It will be interesting to see your rationalizations a year from now and compare all of your statements going back to the beginning.

I mean, on August 20, 2020, you did indeed state that the "epidemic" as you categorized it at the time was "over".

UK now has herd immunity and for us the epidemic is over.

My response was:

There is no evidence of it and what immunity that may exist is now thought to be temporary.

Who was right?

You sure seem addicted to that word "rubbish".

 

[Dashmellow]

Next move is they are investigating autumn booster jabs. This may now be an annual event or bi-annual once they know how long the vaccine works.

Others can do what they feel comfy with but I'll be being careful for years.

I agree. And yes, it appears that COVID will become endemic and will be with us for the foreseeable future .Thus it will require regularly scheduled vaccinations just like the annual flu jab. The problem though is that so far, unlike influenza, COVID does not appear to be seasonal so the booster may need to be administered on an "as needed" basis depending upon what happens with mutations going forward.

 

[Dashmellow]

My post was just a joke, something i feel from time to time this thread need when some participants go head to head.

There are times to make jokes and there are times not to make jokes. And some "jokes" are just not funny or appropriate.

I have a great deal of admiration and respect for Larry Brilliant and that was in part why I posted his profile which among many other skills and accomplishments mentions that he is a philanthropist. Your reply about "proctologists who are also philanthropists" along with that photo didn't strike me as at all funny. It came across as gratuitous, crass and offensive both towards Dr. Brilliant and towards me as the person posting it.

 

[kamkar]

Yes a lot of things are up to the beholder.
As the very first thing i got a good giggle from the guys sir name which if that is anything to go buy the guy are indeed worth something, but did not read into your link as i personally cant be bothered.
Right after that my brain coughed up " if anyone should invent vanta clear the volrds most transparent substance, Larry Brilliant would be the guy for that " so i was in a pretty good mood and hit the keyboard.

I am also very glad it is not the types as the doctor from the old movie classic cannonball run that have a say in this corona thing.

I tend to focus a lot on having fun as i am sadly so naturally tuned towards noticing anything negative, i would be very happy if my brain would recall good things from my life, but it always focus on negative things, even if they at the time had a good outcome.
memories like that are frequent visitors when i lie in my bed at night / morning trying to fall asleep, and even if a memory popped up several times and i vivid recall it, i still get goosebumps every time.

If i let it i am sure this corona thing would send me into a even deeper black hole, even if i cant say it have had much effect on me personally in the past year.

If i have insulted anyone i apologize, that is not why i am here.
Thinking before speaking / typing are not my strong side.

 

[Dashmellow]

Yes a lot of things are up to the beholder.
As the very first thing i got a good giggle from the guys sir name which if that is anything to go buy the guy are indeed worth something, but did not read into your link as i personally cant be bothered.

It wasn't a link, it was the graphic I posted just before your reply with a photo of Larry Brilliant and his profile which described him as an epidemiologist and a philanthropist. You couldn't have missed it. Indeed that would have been where you must have gotten the notion to make the comment, "It is rare you see any proctologists who are also philanthropists", especially if you couldn't be bothered to read any links.

At any rate, Larry Brilliant's grandparents came to the USA as immigrants from Eastern Europe. Their last name was Brilladentov but as with so many new immigrants arriving in the USA back in those days, some bureaucrat didn't like that name or maybe couldn't pronounce it so he gave them the name Brilliant on their paperwork.

 

[kamkar]

It is a bit scary how many smart people come from eastern Europe, first in my mind is always Tesla, at least we western guys have Einstein.

But yeah clear to see in American sir names that public servants working on Ellis island back in the day couldn't really be bothered much, or was probably overburdned a bit from 1892 and onward.

Just taken in this classic a few weeks ago.

 

[kamkar]

A single case of the Delta + variant here today, still less and less cases every day, 63 or so in hospital 17 in ICU and 11 on ventilator.
Some test facilities are now getting torn down due to surplus capacity, still you should be able to find one such place within 20 Km of where you live.

Actually we are also having a nurses strike here right now,,,,,,, but of course they have not shut down the whole healthcare system, but surgeries have been put off,,,,,,,, again.

Some unknown phone number have phoned me 6 times today around noon, they do seem to want to step up the #2 shot, but sadly for them if it is them, i do not pick up on unlisted numbers calling, dont even do that for listed but to me unknown numbers. ( me being in no hurry to use a phone, but in this case the phone was muted and i was still sleeping around noon as i barely had fallen asleep then )

PS. We have now passed our American friends in % of population vaccinated, sadly it seem like they have problems finding people wiling to get the shots,,,,,, it is not that we Danes suddenly have become something we are not.
I hope we can have a fair race to the finish line, and it will be a tie.

 

[Nigel]

PS. We have now passed our American friends in % of population vaccinated, sadly it seem like they have problems finding people wiling to get the shots,,,,,, it is not that we Danes suddenly have become something we are not.
I hope we can have a fair race to the finish line, and it will be a tie.

Yes, the EU has been doing well on the vaccinations recently, with Denmark taking the lead, the USA seems to have almost given up before they have enough to stop the delta variant!

Canada has also been doing very well, however Canada, Denmark etc. are only doing well on first doses, seems the USA is still well ahead on second doses, and we are being told that both doses are needed to stop the Delta variant.

England now on 83% 1st dose and 61% 2nd doses for adults, ahead of USA on both now, and still with a 12 week gap between them for most people.

I saw that a some of our Olympic athletes are refusing to get vaccinated, although 90% will be double vaccinated!

 

[kamkar]

One municipality ( island ) here fully vaccinated. but in comparison thats like 2 block in a mid sized American town vaccinated.

 

[Dashmellow]

Appears to be very close to the peak now, certainly not going up exponentially like the press like to tell us!

Perhaps it's time for a two week update?

The spike in UK COVID cases not only hasn't peaked but it is still on the rise and is accelerating.

Yesterday saw 22,868 new cases which brings the total for the last 7 days to 116,287 for an increase of 69.9%!

Happily, deaths are low but they have risen a similar percentage.



June 27th


June 14th graph for comparison

 

[Nigel]

Perhaps it's time for a two week update?

Yes, the wave has now spread across most of the country, the places it went to first are now well past their peaks, and it will be running out of new places to go by now, some places like London are seeing hospital cases bouncing a bit, not sure why, hopefully not a variant on the variant! :

Australia is far more concerning, the Delta variant has had multiple leaks through quarantine while they have nowhere near enough vaccinations and no natural immunity, seem to be treating the Delta variant as though it can be stopped by lockdown as easily as the original, which is far from realistic...