COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

[kamkar]

I am so ready to win the lottery.
I am also so ready for my #2 PB shot

But there is a larger chance i die from my vaccinations than me winning the lottery, so i would take both the 300 millions and the shot and die a rich man, and testement all my money to the most infuriating organization i can think off.

 

[Kremmen]

The bottom line for me is that the vaccines are safer than catching covid

 

[Dashmellow]

"It is time to say it out loud: the virus behind the COVID-19 pandemic is not going away. SARS-CoV-2 cannot be eradicated, since it is already growing in more than a dozen different animal species. Among humans, global herd immunity, once promoted as a singular solution, is unreachable."

This is one of the best articles I've read about COVID-19 in quite some time. It was written by Larry Brilliant (who led the team of physicians working with the WHO that were instrumental in eradicating smallpox) + (friend and former personal physician to the Grateful Dead) + (co-founder of the SEVA Foundation) writing along with a number of his colleagues, all of whom with the exception of Rick Bright are his team members at the organization he founded - PANDEFENSE ADVISORY.

The Forever Virus

Global herd immunity is now unreachable. How should governments' strategy in the fight against COVID-19 change in response?

www.foreignaffairs.com

 

[kamkar]

Writing like that probably dont bode well for the doomsday crowd out there. ( danger !!!! possible grammar violation in progress )

 

[Harsh]

Now there's a new Delta+ variant and people don't seem to have learnt anything from what everyone witnessed during the second wave. Markets are crowded with little social distancing. The problem is just the sheer numbers. Third wave is predicted to start around end of July.

I'll have had my second shot by then. Hopefully the vaccine works for the new variants.

 

[country_hick]

The vaccine should provide protection against serious complications. Your body should recognize a close relative to covid 19 as a threat and be able to fight the variant also. You may get sick instead of being completely immune but you should not get exceptionally sick from a close relative of covid.

 

[Dashmellow]

The vaccine should provide protection against serious complications. Your body should recognize a close relative to covid 19 as a threat and be able to fight the variant also. You may get sick instead of being completely immune but you should not get exceptionally sick from a close relative of covid.

For now.....

If you were to take the time to read the article in Foreign Affairs Magazine I posted about you might consider what it is they are actually saying.

"The world will not reach the point where enough people are immune to stop the virus’s spread before the emergence of dangerous variants—ones that are more transmissible, vaccine resistant, and even able to evade current diagnostic tests. Such supervariants could bring the world back to square one. It might be 2020 all over again."

 

[Nigel]

This is one of the best articles I've read about COVID-19 in quite some time...

An article that should be filed with the conspiracy theories, nothing but speculation and rubish science!

 

[Dashmellow]

An article that should be filed with the conspiracy theories, nothing but speculation and rubish science!

It's classic! These are some of the world's preeminent virologists, epidemiologists, physicians, bench scientists, data scientists, scholars and experts in fields of public health and public policy but YOU, a random guy on the internet who spends most of his waking hours, 7 days a week posting to a dash cam forum where you try desperately to present yourself as a world class expert on literally every subject, somehow feels superior enough to dismiss these experts who have lifetimes of high level education, knowledge, research and hands-on experience as indulging in "rubbish science". Why is it that every time YOU are challenged to explain what credentials you claim for your alleged expertise in these matters you are completely silent?

There is a word for the kind pathology where ignorant people arrogantly present themselves as superior to literally everyone else regardless of their merit, and no doubt a psychology professional would have a field day with you. It is remarkable how often we witness this sort of thing from you. It has certainly been on display since the very beginning of this thread and indeed throughout the whole forum. It is sad really, but also potentially destructive. It's the same dangerous, provocative nonsense we see with charlatans like Ivor Cummins who represents the epitome of self serving rubbish science, ignorance and conspiracy theory and which you seem to find sympathy with. But hey, it's the internet. Little people can make believe they are someone other than who they are and try to get others to go along with it.

I would invite anyone reading this to click on and read the full profiles of anyone on the team that wrote the article in Foreign Affairs Magazine and consider the absurdity of someone like our friend Nigel's dismissive and condescending attitude towards these people and their work.

Team | Pandefense Advisory

pandefense.com

One might also consider the caliber of the publication Foreign Affairs Magazine and what it takes for them to publish an article of this nature. They feature some of the most prominent individuals on the planet, they don't suffer fools and they certainly don't indulge in conspiracy theories or "rubbish science".

You can start with Larry Brilliant's profile. Nigel thinks he knows more about pandemics and epidemiology than this guy!

 

[kamkar]

It is rare you see any proctologists who are also philanthropists

 

[jokiin]

This is one of the best articles I've read about COVID-19 in quite some time.

some interesting ideas in there about getting vaccinations to areas where outbreaks occur as a targeted response like they did with Smallpox in the 70's, makes a lot of sense when you think about trying to contain the spread when there's limited resources

 

[Dashmellow]

It is rare you see any proctologists who are also philanthropists

I was hoping that posting an interesting, worthwhile and timely article from a publication like Foreign Affairs Magazine written by a group of world class scientists and scholars from Pandefense Advisory that explains in stark detail both geopolitically and scientifically where we came from, where we are and where we may be headed with the pandemic and what can be done about it might generate some interesting conversation. Instead we get mindless juvenile posts and ad hominem gratuitous attacks on the science, the scientists and the subject in general. Sadly, it speaks volumes about the nature of discourse on this forum and especially in this thread.

That said, I'm pleased to see an intelligent post from @jokiin.

 

[Dashmellow]

some interesting ideas in there about getting vaccinations to areas where outbreaks occur as a targeted response like they did with Smallpox in the 70's, makes a lot of sense when you think about trying to contain the spread when there's limited resources

I've been a fan of Larry Brilliant for a long time and if anyone understands how to deal with a pandemic it is him. I recall hearing him describe traveling to a remote village where they found last patient to ever have smallpox in India, a little girl and the team he led realized that the disease had been eliminated once and for all in the world and they all started crying.

Highly recommend watching this TED Talk. - Aside from Brilliant's discussion about eradicating smallpox, he explains what would happen in the next global pandemic which was a question of when, not if. That was back in 2006. So far the current death toll is not nearly as bad as predicted but the rest of what he said was pretty much right on target. As for the death toll, he was basing the prediction on SARS Cov-1 and Bird Flu and we are not at the end of Cov-2 yet. Interestingly, technology has advanced to such a degree from what Brilliant proposed in 2006 with rapid genomic testing, viral surveillance and mass sewage monitoring, etc. that his mantra of "early detection - early response" is far more achievable, except that virtually non of it was put into place before the COVID-19 pandemic began.

Dr. Larry Brilliant - Help Me Stop Pandemics - 2006

My wish: Help me stop pandemics

Accepting the 2006 TED Prize, Dr. Larry Brilliant talks about how smallpox was eradicated from the planet, and calls for a new global system that can identify and contain pandemics before they spread.

www.ted.com

 

[jokiin]

never heard of him prior to reading that article, was stuck in the doctors waiting room for an hour this morning so was some good reading material to help pass the time

 

[Dashmellow]

never heard of him prior to reading that article, was stuck in the doctors waiting room for an hour this morning so was some good reading material to help pass the time

Glad you appreciated it. I felt it went far beyond the usual pablum we get from the media. Wasn't surprised when I saw who was behind the article.

 

[jokiin]

I felt it went far beyond the usual pablum we get from media.

things like Journalism and Reporting by definition rarely seem to exist these days, so much of what's shown is opinion or has some agenda behind it, doesn't help in times like this when we need factual information more than ever and there are so many mixed messages

 

[Dashmellow]

things like Journalism and Reporting by definition rarely seem to exist these days, so much of what's shown is opinion or has some agenda behind it, doesn't help in times like this when we need factual information more than ever and there are so many mixed messages

Doesn't help either when we get people like Nigel attacking the kind of work Dr. Brilliant and his team do as "nothing but speculation, conspiracy theories, and rubish (sic) science!"

 

[jokiin]

I couldn't see anything that I would consider to be a conspiracy theory, maybe he didn't read the whole article, or it just goes against what he personally believes

As to proposed solutions I think any could be considered speculative, until such time as they are proven, some history lessons there that do seem to make sense, will the ideas get in front of the right people though, hard to say when a lot of what happens seems to be politically driven

 

[Dashmellow]

There is nothing speculative about it. They literally spelled out what needs to be accomplished to deal with the SARS-Cov2 pandemic. Basically, they are advocating a modernized version of what Larry Brilliant and his people did to end the smallpox epidermic in India now that we have computers, high speed mobile communications and advanced vaccine technology. They make it clear that nationalism, populism and authoritarianism are counterproductive to ending the pandemic and indeed have dramatically worsened it.

 

[Nigel]

some interesting ideas in there about getting vaccinations to areas where outbreaks occur as a targeted response like they did with Smallpox in the 70's, makes a lot of sense when you think about trying to contain the spread when there's limited resources

That worked for Smallpox, and is very effective against some other nasty diseases, probably how SARS-COV 1 was wiped out.

For the gamma variant of covid-19, if you detect a new outbreak of the virus in an area with no immunity and vaccinate everyone in the area, the current vaccines have no effect for 2 weeks, and for the effect of the vaccines to reach herd immunity level where the virus dies out takes about 3 months if you vaccinate 100% of people, realistically 4 months since not everybody gets vaccinated. In that time gamma will have infected huge numbers of people inside your vaccination area and the chances of containing the gamma variant within the new outbreak area for that length of time seem to be zero unless the area is an island and all the borders are tightly sealed.

Just because something worked in the past in different circumstances, doesn't mean it will still work with current circumstances, if it did then we would have eradicated AIDS by now, in reality we don't even have a vaccine!