COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

[kamkar]

It is funny how math can do so much for us, and also make such a mess of things.
Either way i am fortunate i am not that good at it, otherwise i think i would be a even more frustrated human.

 

[Nigel]

Here it is why is not much meaningful not only to compare countries but also why data are not reliable

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/26/health/number-of-cases-testing-data-intl/index.html

Good article, at least most of it, they do seem to make the mistake they are advising us not to make!

"Even though the likelihood of any one individual in the UK being infected is very low at the moment,"
I think in reality, the chance of encountering an infectious individual in the UK is probably now at the highest it will ever get, depending on which part of the country you are in.

This is what I was trying to say in my last reply to you:

Rather than focus too much on the actual numbers, scientists spend a lot of time looking at the epidemic curve -- the shape of the graph that captures the total number of new cases in each country day by day.
"If different nations have different standards and conditions, they at least generate a consistent curve if those standards and conditions are stable across time," said Lisa Gitelman, an NYU professor and the editor of a book called '"Raw Data' Is an Oxymoron."

Although do note that the shape of the curve is being controlled by the amount of lockdown, so the quote is not at all accurate unless you are comparing countries with similar lockdown made at similar times.

The one figure we have that is reasonably comparable between countries is the deaths/million population. All deaths are recorded so the figure is an accurate figure, the only difference is that some countries, such as Italy appear to be testing all their dead for the virus, while in most countries, anything that appears as a natural death will not appear in the virus figures even if they did have the virus.

Sort the tables by deaths/population and the countries appear in the order we might expect from news reports and when they first started getting cases. Then you can see the differences in testing showing up on the cases/population figures.

This was an interesting read:

How an Austrian ski resort helped coronavirus spread across Europe

Henrik Lerfeldt has fond memories of Kitzloch, a popular restaurant and bar in the Austrian ski resort town of Ischgl, where he partied several nights while on vacation three weeks ago.

edition.cnn.com

 

[Nigel]

It is funny how math can do so much for us, and also make such a mess of things.
Either way i am fortunate i am not that good at it, otherwise i think i would be a even more frustrated human.

Remember that even the mathematicians often get the maths wrong with complex things like this, something they don't think about can easily make a complete mess of the result.

 

[kamkar]

Updated Danish corona figures.

Total tested: 17275
Total tested positive: 2010
In hospital: 430
IN ICU: 109
On ventilator: 89
Total deaths: 52

The distribution of people in hospital in relation to age.



Far from the days where my age group was the leader ( 50-59 YO / år ) not that it make me more chillaxed.

There are still 4 municipallities here that have 0 corona cases, all of them little island municipalities.


In Spain 769 have died in the past 24 hours,,,,,, Vaya con dios.

 

[Nigel]

Updated Danish corona figures.

Total tested: 17275
Total tested positive: 2010
In hospital: 430
IN ICU: 109
On ventilator: 89
Total deaths: 52

The distribution of people in hospital in relation to age.

View attachment 51081

Far from the days where my age group was the leader ( 50-59 YO / år ) not that it make me more chillaxed.

There are still 4 municipallities here that have 0 corona cases, all of them little island municipalities.


In Spain 769 have died in the past 24 hours,,,,,, Vaya con dios.

That is a lot in the 0-29 category, maybe they went skiing and practiced unsafe contact too?
I think it was always expected that the graph would change, now you can see better what is really happening.

In the UK, Boris has tested positive, now working from home... but he normally does that anyway!
Hopefully it wont take long for him to recover, then he will be immune and the press can stop worrying about the government catching it, which seems to have been a bit of a fascination recently!

 

[kamkar]

As far as i know only 1 MP have gotten the bug here, and that was a few weeks ago.

 

[Matt_V939]

Unfortunately we will have exact figures in 1 year, when we will be able to compare historical deaths with 2020.

Doctors And Nurses Say More People Are Dying Of COVID-19 In The US Than We Know

“The numbers are grossly underreported. I know for a fact that we’ve had three deaths in one county where only one is listed on the website,” one California ER doctor told BuzzFeed News.

www.buzzfeednews.com

 

[Matt_V939]

.....

In the UK, Boris has tested positive, now working from home... but he normally does that anyway!
Hopefully it wont take long for him to recover, then he will be immune and the press can stop worrying about the government catching it, which seems to have been a bit of a fascination recently!

Seems his blond hair did not protect him. He got (mild) symptoms too...

 

[Nigel]

Seems his blond hair did not protect him. He got (mild) symptoms too...

I never suggested that blond hair protects you from catching it, it is only the death count that shows differences, so we shall see in 7 days when his self isolation comes to an end...

His ancestry is from all over the place though, it would be very hard to draw conclusions from such a mongrel, but mongrels do always tend to be the healthiest.

 

[kamkar]

Boris come out of isolation with black hair,,,,,,,, TBH if he have no media engagement while it go on, that would be so funny.

 

[Nigel]

TBH if he have no media engagement while it go on, that would be so funny.

I think he will love that, a one way conversation with the press on twitter! Although he always addresses his twitter messages to the people, as with the latest about his self isolation - could do with a longer, less distorted lens on his phone, otherwise he looks well!

 

[Nigel]

While we're still on the subject, this is interesting.

View attachment 51067

Must have been produced by a paper towel manufacturer!
The hot air from a warm air drier will destroy viruses, maybe why it doesn't mention viruses!
It doesn't really matter if the drier is contaminated, modern ones are all touchless, you are not supposed to touch it!

How long does it take to dry your hands with a paper towel? Not much faster than shaking the water off and then natural drying - 47 seconds for me when rubbed together to spread any water droplets out.

 

[country_hick]

With toilet paper being in short supply I wonder if bidet sales have greatly increased.
The obvious civilized solution for not being able to wipe is to use a squirt of water.

 

[Matt_V939]

Must have been produced by a paper towel manufacturer!
The hot air from a warm air drier will destroy viruses, maybe why it doesn't mention viruses!
It doesn't really matter if the drier is contaminated, modern ones are all touchless, you are not supposed to touch it!

How long does it take to dry your hands with a paper towel? Not much faster than shaking the water off and then natural drying - 47 seconds for me when rubbed together to spread any water droplets out.

Don't know about viruses, but seems they recirculate bacteria. Looks like it's not a good idea

Assessment of the bacterial contamination of hand air dryer in washrooms

The present study was carried out, using standard techniques, to identify and count the bacterial contamination of hand air dryers, used in washrooms.…

www.sciencedirect.com

No, a Hair Dryer Won't Stop Coronavirus

A viral video that claims breathing hot air from a hair dryer could cure COVID-19 demonstrates a basic and dangerous lack of understanding about science.

www.snopes.com

 

[Nigel]

Don't know about viruses, but seems they recirculate bacteria. Looks like it's not a good idea

Assessment of the bacterial contamination of hand air dryer in washrooms

The present study was carried out, using standard techniques, to identify and count the bacterial contamination of hand air dryers, used in washrooms.…

www.sciencedirect.com

No, a Hair Dryer Won't Stop Coronavirus

A viral video that claims breathing hot air from a hair dryer could cure COVID-19 demonstrates a basic and dangerous lack of understanding about science.

www.snopes.com

Hand dryers v paper towels: the surprisingly dirty fight for the right to dry your hands

The long read: For a century, the humble paper towel has dominated public toilets. But a new generation of hand dryers has sparked a war for loo supremacy

www.theguardian.com

https://www.dyson.co.uk/commercial/hand-dryers.html?_bt=212836123886&_bk=%2Bhanddryer%20%2Bdyson&_bm=b&_bn=g&&&utm_campaign=UK_EN_Professional_Hand%20Dryers_Dyson_Product_Dryers_Google_NA_All_BMM_NA_NA&utm_source=google.com&utm_medium=paid_search&utm_term=%2Bhanddryer%20%2Bdyson&utm_content=212836123886&gclid=Cj0KCQjwyPbzBRDsARIsAFh15JYgut5djP1QZdWEN8KWxonv5fB8Rh6ggRXfCamKXlpUE9Bzx-g8GxcaAhWoEALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds

 

[Dashmellow]

Must have been produced by a paper towel manufacturer!
The hot air from a warm air drier will destroy viruses, maybe why it doesn't mention viruses!
It doesn't really matter if the drier is contaminated, modern ones are all touchless, you are not supposed to touch it!

How long does it take to dry your hands with a paper towel? Not much faster than shaking the water off and then natural drying - 47 seconds for me when rubbed together to spread any water droplets out.

As has already been well established, forced air hand dryers circulate microbes into the air all around the room in to which they are used. Instead of getting contaminated by touching the unit, you are breathing in the contaminates! Not only that but they have been shown to accumulate microbes that they suck back in, only to recirculate them again later, so the problem compounds itself.

And many people don't wash their hands properly so that any viruses and bacteria on their hands when they use these machine gets blown off their hands into the surrounding air.

And Nigel, the vast majority of forced air hand dryers found in public restrooms all over the world are not HEPA filter equipped, nor are they the Dyson brand. In fact, most of them are not filtered at all.

You should go ahead and do what you like, Nigel but I intend to follow the conclusions of professional infection researchers rather than listen to you, our self-appointed DCT "House-Know-It-All" on virtually every subject!

 

[kamkar]

OMG Italy 919 dead in 24 hours,,,,,,,,,

Trials using Remdesivir are also about to start here, and i hear Aussies also have some encouraging research going on

Remdesivir - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[kamkar]

Why i never ever use a dryer.

 

[Dashmellow]

Now that we have avoided the NASA type graph of the USA, the only reason for the restrictions is so that the hospitals can cope, so you want to relax the restrictions to keep them full and thus get it over with as soon as possible.

Really?, I mean REALLY? What kind of self serving, delusion world are you living in?

 

[kamkar]

Seem much alike to me, even if you look around the 10 K range, but yeah everything are bigger in the US.
I pray to the all seeing eye, that this will not also be the case with death toll.