Here in SC USA it seems we're about to top out. Cases have been steadily rising but the rise rate slowing, and the State health agency thinks that in two weeks we will start to see a flattening then a decline.
SC doesn't appear to have had many deaths, so there is little to stop it rising fast, except for good social distancing. How many deaths is hard to judge from most of the official figures because it depends on who gets counted, only people who die in hospital, anyone who had died after testing positive, anyone suspected of having had covid-19, etc. Different countries and states do each of those.
The registry of all deaths accurately shows how many "excess deaths" there have been, many USA states, eg Maine, show almost none, SC has a few, but comparing SC to eg DC which shows a definite spike of covid-19 deaths suggests that for some reason the epidemic hasn't really arrived in SC yet. Unless of course SC people are immune to death from covid-19.
Try selecting different states on the graph half way down:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm
Until the virus has a reason to die out, it will keep infecting people, only question is how fast. Very few places currently have a reason for it to die out, New York city has enough immunity, maybe UK does, New Zealand did it through serious lockdown, but there has to be a reason. A lot of other places that have reduced the infection rate are bouncing along in single or double deaths per day, but it is proving impossible to actually wipe it out, that includes Denmark, Germany, and even Australia which has a massive track and trace effort with phone app keeping infections in single figures.
I can't see it dying out in USA until a vaccine arrives, but even that is likely to be a disaster since so many people say they wont take the vaccine, and most of the vaccines in development don't stop the virus spreading, only prevent the deaths, thus everyone has to either take the vaccine or stay in serious lockdown.
corona fact.
