COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

kamkar1

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Also on a positive note, today in Denmark was the #2 day of this week with no deaths from the virus.
Many hospitals have also closed down the dedicated corona wards, but they must be able to re-establish in 5 days, but they say they dont need that long now they know what to do and have the equipment.
 
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Nigel

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Swedish scientists say heard immunity are far from there, in Stockholm only 7.1 % have antibodies,,,, i assume of the people tested and not the whole population, but either way far from the 60% they say it take at least.
The 60% figure is not accurate, it varies with many things, such as the amount of "lockdown"/"distancing", and the density of the population.
Sweden does not have a lockdown, and the amount of distancing is something they can probably live with permanently if need be.
Currently their daily death figure is decreasing fast, it will reach zero with their current amount of distancing, so we know that they already have enough immunity. We don't know how much immunity they have, maybe 7.1%, maybe more, but we do know that it is enough, because otherwise the deaths would be increasing.

It seems Denmark also has enough, just, but only if you keep the current amount of lockdown and distancing, which I guess would be a problem, whereas in Sweden it is not a problem, they can continue to have an almost normal life.
 

Nigel

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This is going to kill a few people, must have heard that the elderly are not supporting him anymore :oops:

Donald Trump says “America needs more prayer, not less.”

The president just demanded places of worship reopen for services and he talked about guidelines being issued for “communities of faith”.
He wants them open “for this weekend”. Called upon governors to lift quarantine restrictions relating to religious gathering places.
“If they do not do it I will override the governors,” he said.
He then turned on his heel and left the White House press briefing room without taking any questions.
 

kamkar1

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well prayers do seem to have worked in some African nation, according to its president / dictator.
 

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This is going to kill a few people, must have heard that the elderly are not supporting him anymore :oops:
Trump has never been known to be a religious man. He has been never been an active member of any church, once supported abortion rights and has been divorced twice. Only when he began to run for the presidency did he adopt a platform designed to appeal to the Christian Evangelist right wing and select evangelist Mike Pence as his running mate.

His move here is simply designed to rile up his Evangelist voter block whereas most people of faith have been otherwise ok with social distancing services such as in car parking lots and virtual online worship until this crisis passes. Trump has zero concern for how many dead bodies might lie in the road in his quest for re-election.

Donald Trump is not a Christian, but he knows what the religious right needs to hear, says historian

True Believer? Why Donald Trump Is The Choice Of The Religious Right

trumpgelical.jpg
 

kamkar1

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I see 100 YO Tom More is to be knighted for his corona work, i would not have that any other way. (y)
 

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I see 100 YO Tom More is to be knighted for his corona work, i would not have that any other way. (y)
The queen with her knighting sword is in lockdown, so he will have to wait a while, but full marks to Boris for the recommendation. Past prime ministers have had a habit of recommending friends rather than people the public would support! Seems there is a special coronavirus list for recommending people for honours, which anyone can add to, so I guess there will be quite a few people joining him for honors by the time it is over, not many will get a knighthood though, you have to do something pretty special for that, unless you are a politician.
 

kamkar1

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Well if Tom could raise 1% of what he did for covid to me, i would be mighty happy.
TBH all of those old boys should be knighted if you ask me, at least if that tradition should be watered down i cant see for who else it should be.
 

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I know too many people whom I'd love to administer the sword of Knighthood to, but I'd not bother to be gentle with it :eek::ROFLMAO:;)

Given how poorly they're handling the situation here and in how things are going back where I was living, I'll be heading back to 'normal' life in a few hours. It seems there's relatively few cases there- about the same as the area I'm in now- so no point in 'roughing it' here anymore. It looks like the virus is going to be in circulation here for many more months to come- maybe years- unless an effective vaccine emerges, and while I'll have a bit more close human contact there that will still be minimal and fairly controllable so I might as well do it. I had hoped for a more sensible response from my government, but it seems they're so damn worried about the economy that they're willing to sacrifice any number of lives to get what they're after so now it's as much the lick of the draw as anything else whether I can avoid the disease or not, and my location will not change my luck. I am a very lucky person in that my luck is very good or very bad with very little in between, so I don't hold out much hope for me anymore but I will keep trying to stay safe just in case ;)

And now something of a rant for those who might care. In all this, and indeed even before this, I've come to see that there are a lot more delusional people than I'd thought in the world today. Maybe it's just been this pandemic which has made them stand out more. There's nothing to be gained from denying reality except some temporary comfort which is going to disappear and indeed leave you feeling far worse when the unassailable truth takes hold and beats you down, which it will most definitely do sooner or later. Far better to accept reality for what it is now even when it's rotten because at least then it won't beat you down later. You can't fix a problem till you admit that it's a problem, and no amount of trying to justify something has ever fixed anything. So shortly I'll be packing and heading back downhill to face the problem of life in the pandemic however it is because no matter how much I want reality to be different, it is what it is, good or bad, and I'm OK with that :cool:

Phil
 

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I'll be heading back to 'normal' life in a few hours.
At least everyone knows the distancing rules now and why they are important, you should be much safer than before, and that seems to show in the hospital use charts. Opening the religious venues may destroy all the good work, but hopefully the governors will defy Trump!

Will take a long time to reach zero cases, but it is heading in the right direction and will continue to do so as long as people maintain the distancing: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/south-carolina

Whatever you do, don't go to church!
 

Nigel

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Well if Tom could raise 1% of what he did for covid to me, i would be mighty happy.
TBH all of those old boys should be knighted if you ask me, at least if that tradition should be watered down i cant see for who else it should be.
It is for people who have made a real difference to the nation, definitely shouldn't be watered down.

Captain Tom didn't really do very much, but he made a big difference at the time it was really needed, cheered everyone up, so well deserves it.

Another person that may deserve one if he succeeds: https://www.technologynetworks.com/...uks-coronavirus-vaccine-clinical-trial-334234
 
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Gabacho

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I know too many people whom I'd love to administer the sword of Knighthood to, but I'd not bother to be gentle with it :eek::ROFLMAO:;)

Given how poorly they're handling the situation here and in how things are going back where I was living, I'll be heading back to 'normal' life in a few hours. It seems there's relatively few cases there- about the same as the area I'm in now- so no point in 'roughing it' here anymore. It looks like the virus is going to be in circulation here for many more months to come- maybe years- unless an effective vaccine emerges, and while I'll have a bit more close human contact there that will still be minimal and fairly controllable so I might as well do it. I had hoped for a more sensible response from my government, but it seems they're so damn worried about the economy that they're willing to sacrifice any number of lives to get what they're after so now it's as much the lick of the draw as anything else whether I can avoid the disease or not, and my location will not change my luck. I am a very lucky person in that my luck is very good or very bad with very little in between, so I don't hold out much hope for me anymore but I will keep trying to stay safe just in case ;)

And now something of a rant for those who might care. In all this, and indeed even before this, I've come to see that there are a lot more delusional people than I'd thought in the world today. Maybe it's just been this pandemic which has made them stand out more. There's nothing to be gained from denying reality except some temporary comfort which is going to disappear and indeed leave you feeling far worse when the unassailable truth takes hold and beats you down, which it will most definitely do sooner or later. Far better to accept reality for what it is now even when it's rotten because at least then it won't beat you down later. You can't fix a problem till you admit that it's a problem, and no amount of trying to justify something has ever fixed anything. So shortly I'll be packing and heading back downhill to face the problem of life in the pandemic however it is because no matter how much I want reality to be different, it is what it is, good or bad, and I'm OK with that :cool:

Phil
Good for you Phil! Stay safe, and I agree with your post(y)
 
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country_hick

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F-book apparently is having a problem with people talking about censorship.
This is a legit screenshot and yes, the photo was covered.

Snap 2020-05-23 at 18.05.50.png
 
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Nigel

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Seems most of the virus has moved across the Atlantic, 60% of covid-19 deaths yesterday were over there!
Will be interesting to see if it can cross the Pacific, and get back to where it came from.
Seems to have got stuck in the New World, yesterday's figures have over 90% of deaths over there, still led by Mr Trump.



Trump supporters at trump rally in California :

"Only half of Americans (55%) say they would get vaccinated against the novel coronavirus, if and when a vaccine becomes available"
"The survey, which was taken between May 13 and May 19 and included 4,428 Americans, also showed that around 36% of Americans said they would be less willing to take a coronavirus vaccine if President Donald Trump said it was safe. "




Now I know why the USA is being allowed the Oxford vaccine even though they failed to fund the global alliance - we need test subjects and the USA has plenty of virus and has agreed to provide 30,000 test subjects for the final trial phase, while in the UK:
Some 10,000 people are being recruited to test the jab over the coming weeks, but Prof Hill said he expected fewer than 50 of those to catch the virus, and the results could be deemed useless if fewer than 20 test positive.
If only 50 people catch the virus, we wouldn't expect anyone to die, so how can that prove its effectiveness at preventing death? UK death rate is probably below the 5 year average right now since the lockdown has wiped out a lot of flu!
 
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SawMaster

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Well you know my take on it- I won't have a vaccine until a normal clinical trial period has elapsed and most of the 'resisters' here are probably as aware of my reasoning as I am :cautious: And even the most die-hard Trump supporters are now quietening down since it's plain for everyone to see that he really has no clue about what he's doing regards Covid-19. There's only so much you can explain away as being someone else's fault before it becomes clear whose fault it really is and why.

And now that the lockdowns are being eased off, I expect that in one or two weeks we're going to see a rise in cases- maybe even a spike- and almost all the Medical experts are saying the same thing. That will mostly be in the high population density areas; there may be a coinciding drop in rural areas (or not?) but those numbers won't be enough to offset the rise regardless. Any vaccine testing will actually benefit from this as it will become far more certain that the test patients are being exposed to the virus in it's currently circulating form, and even if the tests show a very effective vaccine quickly, by the time it can become widely implemented the death toll will likely be huge. Hopefully the virus won't mutate during this timeframe. We're also about to see the first widespread results of the economic approach being taken here, as loan and rent default moratoriums are being lifted and more of the 'non-essential'' workforce re-enters the public arena only to find there's no jobs to be had for many of them :cry:

Whatever happens in the near-future is already locked in by the decisions and approaches already made, and nothing about a vaccine can change that. It will be quite interesting to see how the next few months play out in the different places who took (and are still taking) different approaches to this. The real learning is about to begin and woe be unto those who have screwed this up because they're going to be suffering greatly for a very long time because of their errors :eek:

Phil
 
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country_hick

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There is good news on 2 fronts.
It appears everything should open back up.
If you read this news differently please correct me.

Most people are more likely to wind up six feet under because of almost anything else under the sun other than COVID-19.

The CDC just came out with a report that should be earth-shattering to the narrative of the political class, yet it will go into the thick pile of vital data and information about the virus that is not getting out to the public. For the first time, the CDC has attempted to offer a real estimate of the overall death rate for COVID-19, and under its most likely scenario, the number is 0.26%. Officials estimate a 0.4% fatality rate among those who are symptomatic and project a 35% rate of asymptomatic cases among those infected, which drops the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) to just 0.26% — almost exactly where Stanford researchers pegged it a month ago.



Results: The median contact time for patients was four days and that for family members was five days. Cardiovascular disease accounted for 25% among original diseases of patients. Apart from hospital staffs, both patients and family members were isolated medically. During the quarantine, seven patients plus one family member appeared new respiratory symptoms, where fever was the most common one. The blood counts in most contacts were within a normal range. All CT images showed no sign of COVID-19 infection. No severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections was detected in 455 contacts by nucleic acid test.


Conclusion: In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak.
 
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country_hick

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This is new.

More than 600 of the nation’s physicians sent a letter to President Trump this week calling the coronavirus shutdowns a “mass casualty incident” with “exponentially growing negative health consequences” to millions of non COVID patients.


“The downstream health effects...are being massively under-estimated and under-reported. This is an order of magnitude error," according to the letter initiated by Simone Gold, M.D., an emergency medicine specialist in Los Angeles.


“Suicide hotline phone calls have increased 600%,” the letter said. Other silent casualties: “150,000 Americans per month who would have had new cancer detected through routine screening.”
 

kamkar1

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Yeah suicide hotlines - domestic violence phones - and both shelters for women,,,, and men are seeing more visitors.
And shelters in Denmark dont mean out of a job and out on the street on your ass shelters, though we have those too, most often used by alcoholics and junkies, but the shelters i refer to above are for men or women where the spouse are violent or abusive in other ways.
It is a cascade effect, if it was just the damn virus things would be a lot easier.
Though i did read a story with a girl in her erly 20ties that even before the virus had anxiety and other mental problems, but the virus sort of made her face her demons and she are a lot better now.
The virus had no effect on my depression and other issues, im the same mess i have been for the past decade.
 

Nigel

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If you read this news differently please correct me.
"however, if you take New York City and its surrounding counties out of the equation, "

Why would you do that?

New York City shows us what happens if you don't have a lockdown when it hits a densely populated area and you don't have any immunity.

In New York, 30,000 people have officially died, and it is likely to be over 50,000 in reality, which is approaching the 0.26% suggested in that article, but are you really happy for that many people to die in every city, when it is clear that most of the deaths could be avoided? Look at New Zealand if you don't believe they could be avoided. With a vaccine probably on the way within a few months there now seems a reasonable argument to lockdown and wait...

This will happen in all the other US cities if they don't have sufficient lockdown, probably not quite so bad because most have less dense, more isolated populations, but it is clear from experience around the world that large cities need a proper lockdown until immunity is gained.

In country areas it is a different matter, a little social distancing and handwashing may be all that is required, but that is not the way to kill the virus off, it will linger and keep killing people if you take that approach.

Risk of death from vaccine = ? , Risk of death from covid-19 = 0.26% = 2600 people per million.

Not heard of many people dying from vaccines, generally they have no long term effect because they don't stay in the body for more than a few days.
 

Nigel

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Well you know my take on it- I won't have a vaccine until a normal clinical trial period has elapsed and most of the 'resisters' here are probably as aware of my reasoning as I am :cautious: And even the most die-hard Trump supporters are now quietening down since it's plain for everyone to see that he really has no clue about what he's doing regards Covid-19. There's only so much you can explain away as being someone else's fault before it becomes clear whose fault it really is and why.

And now that the lockdowns are being eased off, I expect that in one or two weeks we're going to see a rise in cases- maybe even a spike- and almost all the Medical experts are saying the same thing. That will mostly be in the high population density areas; there may be a coinciding drop in rural areas (or not?) but those numbers won't be enough to offset the rise regardless. Any vaccine testing will actually benefit from this as it will become far more certain that the test patients are being exposed to the virus in it's currently circulating form, and even if the tests show a very effective vaccine quickly, by the time it can become widely implemented the death toll will likely be huge. Hopefully the virus won't mutate during this timeframe. We're also about to see the first widespread results of the economic approach being taken here, as loan and rent default moratoriums are being lifted and more of the 'non-essential'' workforce re-enters the public arena only to find there's no jobs to be had for many of them :cry:

Whatever happens in the near-future is already locked in by the decisions and approaches already made, and nothing about a vaccine can change that. It will be quite interesting to see how the next few months play out in the different places who took (and are still taking) different approaches to this. The real learning is about to begin and woe be unto those who have screwed this up because they're going to be suffering greatly for a very long time because of their errors :eek:

Phil
They are actually doing the normal amount of testing on the Oxford vaccine, they have just removed all the administration and regulation gaps between the stages, and started production before testing is finished. Obviously that doesn't address your time concerns.

If you are weighing up vaccine against virus against the hope of not catching it, then I guess if you are in your teens then avoiding the vaccine might seem sensible, while if you are in your 90s then taking the vaccine would seem very sensible, apart from having a much higher risk of dying if you catch the virus, you are not worried about any effect the vaccine may have in 20 years time. If you are in middle age, remember that the virus seems to have some unpleasant side effects in some people, likely more chance of that being a problem in future than side effects from the vaccine.

Also, with the Oxford vaccine, and most of the others being developed, you can't just let everyone else take the vaccine knowing that it will mean there is no virus about to get you. This works with most vaccines, even measles if enough people take it, but it doesn't work with coronavirus vaccines, since they can live and spread in both the body and the throat, and the vaccine will only protect the body, it wont prevent a throat infection, which means that the virus will still spread through everyone even after vaccination of most.

That will mostly be in the high population density areas; there may be a coinciding drop in rural areas (or not?)
I think it is inevitable that cases will rise almost everywhere, most of the USA still does not have much immunity. Assuming that everyone sticks to distancing and staying at home as much as possible, there may not be a big rise in rural areas, Sweden has managed to build immunity without lockdown or serious problems and I guess their population density is similar to your state, but they have had the virus, and people have died.
 
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