COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

[kamkar]

I am wondering if colder weather will trigger a explosion in numbers, nothing to do but wait and see.

 

[Dadi_T]

Omfg! I can't believe there is a flu section on this forum!

 

[Nigel]

I am wondering if colder weather will trigger a explosion in numbers, nothing to do but wait and see.

I can't see the schools holding many classes outside, or keeping many windows open for ventilation once the cold weather arrives, so there is bound to be an increase, but an explosion will probably only happen in places that circulate warm air for heating. In Denmark you use water and that doesn't carry virus.

What happened to France, they have a proper explosion, it is not looking good for the Tour!

 

[Dashmellow]

Since your state can't stop infectious people bring the virus in and you don't have much immunity to stop the spread of an outbreak, your state should be preparing for your epidemic to arrive in the late autumn or early winter. This is a virus that requires the right conditions to get R above 1.0 and there are a number of states in the north of the USA that have not yet had suitable conditions. When suitable conditions do arrive it will spread fast. Don't think that masks are going to save you, you should hope that a vaccine arrives before those conditions arrive, and while you might not agree with Trump's emergency use authorisation of a vaccine, it might well save your state and a few others, Fauci's Moderna vaccine will not arrive until the whole USA has herd immunity at which point it won't be needed! There are several states in the North of the USA just waiting for a change of season, just like the southern states boasted about their great handling of the epidemic throughout the spring, while waiting for the summer season to arrive for a major outbreak!

Of course it is possible that suitable conditions for the virus to multiply will never arrive, Other countries with a northern climate, Finland and Norway have both had far less infections than Vermont with no sign of any change, although they have recently had a very similar apparent increase in cases to the UK since we have all increased testing. Ukraine also has a low infection count, but that has recently changed into outbreak conditions as their summer season comes to an end and unlike Finland and Norway they haven't increased testing.

Well, just what Vermont needs is to have a self-appointed, chronically self-righteous, amateur pundit cosplaying as an epidemiologist explaining everything COVID and telling us what we should or shouldn't do.

The fact is that you have no clue about how our public officials here in Vermont have been adroitly managing, monitoring and directing their responses to this crisis on a daily basis or the many clever, creative and cooperative measures we citizens here have responded with to keep ourselves healthy, care for the vulnerable and keep our economy functioning. You have no idea about what goes on in our densely populated cities and towns or sparsely populated rural areas or how these populations intermingle.

You have no idea who travels to Vermont and why. You have no clue that many visitors own second homes here and have ties to our communities and that this is a major seasonal tourist destination throughout the year which our economy is heavily dependent on. While there is some concern about the much larger numbers of out of state visitors coming here their presence has bolstered our economy such that we are in less dire straights financially than most of the surrounding states and jurisdictions. And you have no understanding about the mandated self quarantine measures new visitors to our state are required to adhere to. You falsely assume that people visitng the state are "infectious" but so far, despite concerns there has been virtually no evidence of that for months now, except for a single individual who self isolated as soon as he arrived and discovered he was infected.

Unlike in the Untied Kingdom, where the population has often been dubbed "a society of alcoholics" where you hold "Quarantine Raves" or rent Airbnb flats to hold wild debauched alcohol fueled parties and where non-self distancing, non masking wearing crowds of unruly pub crawling drunks have been seen in news reports throwing beer bottles at squads of police officers, we here in Vermont avoid such poor behaviors for the common good of society to keep our citizens as safe and healthy as possible, prevent overwhelming our healthcare facilities and manage this crisis as best we can until a suitable vaccine becomes widely available.

This constant table pounding about "herd immunity" is laughable at this point along with how you persist in ignoring the research and studies being published by highly respected ACTUAL experts who have made it clear that such immunity is a myth and unachievable. How could it be that you ALWAYS claim to know more than the scholars, researchers, virologists, statisticians, epidemiologists and doctors who have dedicated their entire careers to these matters and who are working feverishly to understand this unique novel pathogen? The answer is, you DON'T!

At this point you seem lost in a heavy fog of self delusion. Suddenly, you're onto the false notion of seasonal changes with COVID but there is no evidence that it exists! In fact, the entirety of your thinking about coronavirus is based on your belief that it behaves like seasonal influenza but it is a much more complex disease that doesn't come and go with seasonality or temperature. With no evidence of seasonal variations, the WHO warns the initial coronavirus pandemic is continuing and accelerating!

Of course, it wouldn't be you unless get another big dollop of self righteous, shameless nation bashing. I believe that's going to catch up with you sooner than later.

And finally, speaking of delusion, you seem so desperate to boast about the alleged prowess of the Untied Kingdom that you declare the pandemic to literally be "over"! Good luck with that wishful thinking.

U.K. Has Europe’s Worst Surge in Deaths During Pandemic, Study Says July 30, 2020 New York Times

 

[Dashmellow]

I can't see the schools holding many classes outside, or keeping many windows open for ventilation once the cold weather arrives, so there is bound to be an increase, but an explosion will probably only happen in places that circulate warm air for heating.

Ever the self-appointed know-it-all.

Here in the US many schools, office buildings, grocery stores, factories, healthcare facilities and restaurants have been busily re-configuring their HVAC systems with anti-viral technology to include MERV 13 or higher filtration, germicidal UV lighting disinfection and changes in airflow patterns.

 

[kamkar]

With the ever increasing risk of catching a infection from a stay at a Danish hospital, this new thing are probably just more fuel to the fire.
It have been so long and so many i cant even remember the first poor cleaning of hospitals scandal.
But it have not been so long i cant remember when Danish hospitals was world class, so it seem when things go wrong they happen fast.

And i just read the wanna be commies ( social democrats ) are looking to get a even better election now VS the election a good year ago, i am like WTF how can people vote for those idiots.
And the past days a intelligence scandal are rolling, with NSA pretty much having unrestricted access to every internet fiber in Denmark, and still the government are not toppled by parties ( 4 of them ) that are kept out of every meeting in this regard.
And the scandal of corruption and what not in the Danish military, with several high ranking people fired and even jailed.

I am sorry but i can not trust a single person here, at least not outside 5 - 10 or so out of just about 6 million.

 

[Nigel]

Ever the self-appointed know-it-all.

Here in the US many schools, office buildings, grocery stores, factories, healthcare facilities and restaurants have been busily re-configuring their HVAC systems with anti-viral technology to include MERV 13 or higher filtration, germicidal UV lighting disinfection and changes in airflow patterns.

I hope someone has done a proper scientific randomized controlled trial to prove these filter systems actually have a useful effect and aren't like the one in the Phoenix Church that Trump held an event at?

A MERV-13 filter is able to remove 90% of particles between 3 and 10 microns in size, 85% of particles between 1 and 3 microns in size, and 50% of particles between 0.30 and 1 microns in size.

The size of COVID-19 is approximately 0.125 microns.

 

[Dashmellow]

I hope someone has done a proper scientific randomized controlled trial to prove these filter systems actually have a useful effect and aren't like the one in the Phoenix Church that Trump held an event at?

Yes, there have been many previous filter studies and new ones are ongoing. COVIID-19 is a new pathogen after all. Systems like this have been in use in major hospitals for many years and they are simply being adapted to other locations. And when filtration systems are combined with germicidal Ultra Violet light virus scrubbers they appear to be highly effective. UVC light of around 254 nanometers is very efficient at killing viruses and bacteria and it can kill 90% of viruses in 16 seconds. It also alters virus DNA so that it is rendered unable to reproduce. Not sure that it is 100% effective but pursuit of this approach is certainly a worthwhile endeavor. New LED UV technology has made these systems cheaper and easier to deploy than in the past.

Effect of ultraviolet germicidal irradiation on viral aerosols

Far UVC light is under investigation for SARS-CoV-2. Germicidal UVC light (wavelength around 254 nm) has the capacity to kill viruses and bacteria. Far-UVC light, has a very short wavelength (in the range from about 205 to 230 nm), so it cannot reach or damage living human cells. But these wavelengths can still penetrate and kill very small viruses and bacteria floating in the air or on surfaces.

Could a New Ultraviolet Technology Fight the Spread of Coronavirus?
Columbia researcher David Brenner believes far-UVC light—safe for humans, but lethal for viruses—could be a ‘game changer.’

https://independenceled.com/germicidal-uv-light/

DIY MERV 13 air filtration system from Wired Magazine.

HVAC filtration for controlling infectious airborne disease transmission in indoor environments: Predicting risk reductions and operational costs

 

[Dashmellow]

It turns out that these remarks are misleading and essentially inaccurate even if they appear to be technically true, as they are out of context.

According to the noted aerosol scientist and professor of civil and environmental engineering Linsey Marr at Virginia Tech, who specializes in airborne transmission of viruses and who I've mentioned previously in this thread, the fact that the COVID-19 virus is approximately 0.125µm is not particularly relevant when it comes to the ability of MERV 13 filtration material to stop it. She explains that, "There is never a naked virus floating in the air or released by people. While the COVID-19 particle is indeed around 0.125 microns in size, it is always bonded to something larger. The virus attaches to water droplets or aerosols (really small droplets) that are generated by breathing, talking, coughing, etc. These aerosols consist of water, mucus protein and other biological material and are all larger than 1 micron."

This same principle applies to N95 masks.

Applied Interdisciplinary Research in Air

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linsey_Marr

I hope someone has done a proper scientific randomized controlled trial to prove these filter systems actually have a useful effect and aren't like the one in the Phoenix Church that Trump held an event at?

A MERV-13 filter is able to remove 90% of particles between 3 and 10 microns in size, 85% of particles between 1 and 3 microns in size, and 50% of particles between 0.30 and 1 microns in size.

The size of COVID-19 is approximately 0.125 microns.

 

[kamkar]

Hehe its a package deal, you get a bit of slobber and a going away present.

 

[Dashmellow]

Air Purifiers, Air Filters, and the Best DIY Hacks to Reduce the Coronavirus Risk
How to clear the air in your home to protect against airborne Covid-19 transmission

 

[SawMaster]

I've long ago said masks aka filtration is effective to at least some degree, and therefore worthwhile. But I still have doubts regards building filtration because I've known too many installers and service technicians and I've seen too many systems both supposedly maintained and left alone Many older systems are about as sealed as a screen door on a submarine (and older can mean just a few years) Plus many (dare I say most?) service people just don't give a dam# about whether a filter is fitted correctly or not; all they want is to get it swapped out so they can say it was done on their checklist. They're not going to note that they had to hammer the damaged cover back on or that a latch is weak or that they found leakage in an inaccessible area,. They're not going to do any more than they absolutely must, and they're not going to make more work for themselves if they can avoid that Plus the now-common flexible ducts are chock-full of places where solids and liquids can settle and pool and they do just that

In a hospital setting or an industrial 'clean room' it's done better, but anywhere else is risky. Same as with wearers needing to use masks correctly, the effectiveness is highly dependent on replication the conditions used in testing or the results will not be the same,. I've seen first-hand the crap and patchwork which goes on in construction in residential, commercial, and industrial settings for decades and I do not trust it for good reason. Were it not for massive safety margins being designed into most structural work, we'd have building failures galore going on here in the US and the same goes for all the systems used in the buildings I'm not agoraphobic but that's why I've always avoided as many of the large places people congregate as I can. Especially hospitals where all manner of pathogens and diseases are present in quantity and likely being spread more than you could imagine

A bit of knowledge and some common sense can tell you much but it's up to people to use their own brains, which few seem to want to do.

Phil

 

[Saloni Bhatnagar]

This COVID-19 along with health has impacted a lot of industry and professionals. Here I have found one article on COVID-19 Impact on Photography. It is a must read:

 

[Nigel]

The virus attaches to water droplets or aerosols (really small droplets) that are generated by breathing, talking, coughing, etc. These aerosols consist of water, mucus protein and other biological material and are all larger than 1 micron."

They are until the water evaporates, which it will, otherwise the filter is going to get extremely wet and very nasty, and building filters are not going to get changed daily, more likely 3 monthly! Having to breath air that has been forced through a month old damp and dirty filter is not very appealing...

 

[kamkar]

I remember the 1976 outbreak of legionnaires decease at a hotel in Philly, the aircon there spread it throughout the building from the cooling tower.

Or rather my brain have stored me hearing of it later on cuz in 1976 i was only 10 years old.

 

[jokiin]

I remember the 1976 outbreak of legionnaires decease at a hotel in Philly, the aircon there spread it throughout the building from the cooling tower.

that was something that spread in those old evaporative water cooler systems they used to use in buildings, had it here in Australia also

 

[Nigel]

These days it is found in many car cabin air filters and causes similar symptoms to covid-19, including death!

Apparently the source is the washer fluid, you should never use plain water:

Windscreen water infection risk

Water from windscreen wipers may be the cause of 20% of cases of Legionnaires' Disease, researchers say.

www.bbc.co.uk

Wasn't a problem before car cabin air filters!

 

[kamkar]

I only use water for washing myself and various items, TBH in the car i have -21 deg C winter fluid in the tank all year, only to put in a little bug release in the summer time.

 

[Dashmellow]

They are until the water evaporates, which it will, otherwise the filter is going to get extremely wet and very nasty, and building filters are not going to get changed daily, more likely 3 monthly! Having to breath air that has been forced through a month old damp and dirty filter is not very appealing...

Dr. Linsey Marr is perhaps the world's leading expert in viral aerosols but somehow, you Nigel, claim to know more than she does. Witnessing this bizarre behavior from you numerous times on a daily basis gets weirder and weirder, yet funnier and funnier.

And tell me this, if the filters are in place "until the water evaporates", how are they "a month old damp and dirty" at the same time? The virus can only live for a limited amount of time outside a human host. Furthermore, once they are trapped in the filter they are no longer aerosols.

 

[kamkar]

Haha those illustrations thats pretty much me.

1: My sign are leo, and i do have high thoughts of myself
2: i have always seen a skeleton in a skin sack looking in the mirror, but now that i am fat, okay it is not muscles i see but i like it more than the skeleton.