COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

[Nigel]

Oxford tweeted that their vaccine was 70.4% effective which is quite lower than the Pfizer and Moderna versions
https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-11-23-oxford-university-breakthrough-global-covid-19-vaccine
Then they went on to say one dosage method was 90% effective while the other was 63%. Statements like this are confusing and they should know how to word things better than this

Still glad to see any progress toward bringing the pandemic to an end
Phil

Best interview with Oxford's Prof. Hill for the explanation is from India:
(Turned out the interviewer had also been to Oxford University.)

 

[kamkar]

The anti vaxxers are already out in force here
Really some people should not be allowed access to the internet.

Yes it is dangerous to walk down the stairs from your apartment you could fall and hurt yourself, but the alternative is to jump out the kitchen window.

 

[Dashmellow]

"cloth masks were associated with a significantly higher risk", even N95 masks don't work for viruses, just wash your hands!

https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD006207.pub5/full

The "Plain language summary" is the easiest bit to read.

The conclusions are typical of these kinds of large scale meta studies.

Authors' conclusions:​

"The high risk of bias in the trials, variation in outcome measurement, and relatively low compliance with the interventions during the studies hamper drawing firm conclusions and generalizing the findings to the current COVID‐19 pandemic.
There is uncertainty about the effects of face masks. The low‐moderate certainty of the evidence means our confidence in the effect estimate is limited, and that the true effect may be different from the observed estimate of the effect."

 

[Nigel]

The conclusions are typical of these kinds of large scale meta studies.

Yes, and this one seems to have come to the opposite conclusion to the one done by the CDC, but the problem is that the signal they are looking for is too small to clearly see, or maybe non-existent. If masks worked really well then most of the studies would be seeing a clear benefit and the consensus would be certainty in the result. So they should just be declaring that there is no clear benefit. rather than searching harder and harder for a tiny signal amongst the noise.

 

[Dashmellow]

Yes, and this one seems to have come to the opposite conclusion to the one done by the CDC, but the problem is that the signal they are looking for is too small to clearly see, or maybe non-existent. If masks worked really well then most of the studies would be seeing a clear benefit and the consensus would be certainty in the result. So they should just be declaring that there is no clear benefit. rather than searching harder and harder for a tiny signal amongst the noise.

Masks do indeed work. They may not be 100% effective as that is unlikely and difficult to achieve but they have been shown to block microbes and reduce disease transmission. It depends on the particular mask, the materials it is made from and how it is worn. It is not the zero sum game you claim it to be and which is unfortunately your entire approach to this pandemic.

Masks Work. Really. We’ll Show You How​

 

[Nigel]

Masks do indeed work.

That is incorrect, masks may partially work, but even in the CDC's study where one of their best sources of evidence was the US aircraft carrier, for some reason the number of infections among those wearing masks was significantly less than the number of infections among those not wearing masks. However it was still the case that most of the mask wearing sailors got infected, in most cases the masks clearly failed to work.

If masks worked then the USA wouldn't have 200,000 new cases per day at the moment, maybe not everyone is using them, but a lot are, the 7 states with most infections yesterday all have mandatory masks.

Telling people that masks work is clearly dangerous, they need to know that they are still in danger.

 

[jokiin]

clean hands/personal hygiene, maintain some distance, masks when distance isn't possible or in high risk situations seems to be the current thinking

 

[Nigel]

clean hands/personal hygiene, maintain some distance, masks when distance isn't possible or in high risk situations seems to be the current thinking

Exactly,
More ventilation = less risk,
More distance = less risk,
Less time = less risk,
Cleaning hands = less risk,
Talk quietly, no singing,
Avoid physical contact such as handshakes,
Masks = last resort, they may make some difference, when used with all the other precautions already in place!

 

[SawMaster]

Everything helps. Even a few percent gain singly adds up in the total of everything, and that last little bit may be what saves your hide.

Phil

 

[Nigel]

This is for protection against infection, protection against getting ill was 100% - much better than flu!

Seems to be even better than that, because people were being tested so frequently that the 90% figure also covers asymptomatic infection, so 100% no serious illness and 90% no symptoms + no asymptomatic transmission.


Bill Gates on his own new podcast:

What will the world look like after COVID-19?

In the first podcast episode of 'Bill Gates and Rashida Jones Ask Big Questions', Bill and Rashida talk to Dr. Anthony Fauci about COVID-19, present and future.

www.gatesnotes.com

 

[kamkar]

We clocked #2 highest daily infected number yesterday with 1300 and something people, out of 81000 tested.

 

[Dashmellow]

That is incorrect, masks may partially work, but even in the CDC's study where one of their best sources of evidence was the US aircraft carrier, for some reason the number of infections among those wearing masks was significantly less than the number of infections among those not wearing masks. However it was still the case that most of the mask wearing sailors got infected, in most cases the masks clearly failed to work.

If masks worked then the USA wouldn't have 200,000 new cases per day at the moment, maybe not everyone is using them, but a lot are, the 7 states with most infections yesterday all have mandatory masks.

Telling people that masks work is clearly dangerous, they need to know that they are still in danger.

More Nigelsplaining from our resident self appointed expert with zero credentials!

I see you don't cite the specific CDC study you refer to and there have been a quite a few of them so far, some of which have been misinterpreted in certain media outlets, but the cramped, close quarters of a naval warship do not equate to what citizens experience in real world everyday society.

A more recent CDC study: Trends in County-Level COVID-19 Incidence in Counties With and Without a Mask Mandate — Kansas, June 1–August 23, 2020 from the weekly Morbidity & Mortality Report, released only days ago on November 20th, 2020 demonstrated significant reduction is the spread of coronavirus and reiterates the CDC's recommendation to wear masks.

Here is the concluding discussion from the report:





In addition, Linsey Marr, Ph.D, one of the world's leading research scientists in the field of airborne disease transmission released a new study just yesterday, November 23, 2020.

"Marr is one of a handful of researchers in the world with unique expertise in how airborne pathogens interact with and travel in the air. With a field of experience that suddenly became vitally important this year and an uncommon strength at communicating complex science to the lay public, Marr has emerged as a go-to source for public health agencies, journalists, and the 29,000 people who follow her updates on Twitter."

Study shows cloth face coverings help protect both wearers and those nearby ​

Study design represents conditions closer to real-world use, with the control of laboratory testing

Mask Confusion Settled: Here’s How Effective They Are​

New study confirms consensus that masks protect the wearer and others​

Full text of study:
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.18.20233353v1.full-text

 

[kamkar]

I will say, if you sneeze with a mask on, yeah most of that will go onto the mask material right in front of your mouth, but as it can not handle such a volume a lot will still filter out the sides and up / below the mask.
And in that case i think it dont matter that much if you have a mask on.
BUT ! for just breathing and talking a mask will probably work a lot better than nothing

People also tend to forget, if you get a pathogen in your eye you can also absorb it that way, at least thats how i understand it.
And in my case as the eczema on my knuckles more or less mean i have a open sore there all the time, so something could get in that way too.

People should take the precautions they feel are okay for them.
And if some vaccine are tested on ground hogs and foxes so be it, but that would not be the vaccine i put my faith on.

I read the Russians are also making a vaccine for mink now,,,,,, probably just Putin that are done laughing at us Danes, and want to mess wore with us.

And by the way those mink mass graves here, it seem that 1M deep are too shallow and they are now coming out of the ground again.

My bet is they have dug a trench 1 M deep and then filled it 2/3 the way up with dead animals, and then put a foot of dirt on top,,,,,,,, fracking stupid people in charge employing even more stupid people to do their dirty work.

Yup look that way

Being a Dane,,,,, the hardest god damn job i have ever had,,,,,, and the pay are lousy,,,,,, of thats right you pay for the privilege

 

[Nigel]

People also tend to forget, if you get a pathogen in your eye you can also absorb it that way, at least thats how i understand it.
And in my case as the eczema on my knuckles more or less mean i have a open sore there all the time, so something could get in that way too.

Yes, eyes seem important, although nobody seems to have tested the use of normal glasses, only face shields, don't understand why more isn't being done on this since getting everyone to wear glasses would probably be relatively easy!

The importance of eye protection is illustrated by a study of community health workers in India. Despite protection by three-layer surgical masks, alcohol hand rub, gloves, and shoe covers, 12 of 60 workers developed COVID-19. The workers were then supplied with face shields (which provide eye protection) — in addition to the personal protective equipment (PPE) described above — and none of the 50 workers became infected despite higher case load.

Face Masks Don't Work as Well in the Community as They Do in the Lab

In controlled laboratory situations, face masks appear to do a good job of reducing the spread of coronavirus (at least in hamsters) and other respiratory viruses. However, evidence shows mask-wearing

www.realclearscience.com

But we also have little research on how long a single mask is effective. Most guidelines suggest around four hours, but studies on bacteria show masks provide good protection for the first hour and by two hours are doing little. Unfortunately, we could not identify similar research examining viruses.

 

[Nigel]

A more recent CDC study...

Don't forget that the CDC thinks masks are more effective than vaccines!!!

I wonder why we don't all use masks for measles?

In September, CDC Director Robert Redfield told senators that wearing a mask was guaranteed to offer at least some protection for all wearers.

"We have clear scientific evidence they work, I might even go so far as to say that this face mask is more guaranteed to protect me against COVID than when I take a COVID vaccine, because the immunogenicity may be 70 percent and if I don't get an immune response, the vaccine's not going to protect me, this face mask will," Redfield said.

CDC director says masks more guaranteed to work than a vaccine

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield said Wednesday that wearing a mask is more guaranteed to protect someone from the coronavirus than taking a vaccine.Redfiel…

thehill.com

 

[SawMaster]

I recall seeing some study results about the the eyes being a viable receptor and there is some proof that they are, just not much talk about it. Though I haven't been consistent, since I can see fine with my reading glasses I have worn them for extra protection. With the rising rates I plan to do this more consistently when out. I'm also avoiding the family Thanksgiving even though very few will be there, and none of those who would be more likely to have the disease such as kids and people with wider social contacts.

Until I get vaccinated I'm not taking chances, and even afterward I'm still going to be careful- just less worried.

Phil

 

[jokiin]

I recall seeing some study results about the the eyes being a viable receptor and there is some proof that they are, just not much talk about it. Though I haven't been consistent, since I can see fine with my reading glasses I have worn them for extra protection. With the rising rates I plan to do this more consistently when out. I'm also avoiding the family Thanksgiving even though very few will be there, and none of those who would be more likely to have the disease such as kids and people with wider social contacts.

Until I get vaccinated I'm not taking chances, and even afterward I'm still going to be careful- just less worried.

Phil

current research says you won't catch it from people that have it that are asymptomatic, keep your distance from anyone showing signs, coughing, sneezing etc, keep your hands clean, particularly after you've been in public places, supermarket etc

 

[Nigel]

Significant result:

Findings In this cohort of 276 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in Suizhou, China, the proportion of daily wearers of eyeglasses was lower than that of the local population (5.8% vs 31.5%).

Association of Daily Wear of Eyeglasses With Susceptibility to COVID-19 Infection

This cohort study assesses the association between daily wear of eyeglasses and susceptibility to coronavirus disease 2019 among patients admitted to a single hospital with infection.

jamanetwork.com

 

[Dashmellow]

Don't forget that the CDC thinks masks are more effective than vaccines!!!

I wonder why we don't all use masks for measles?

CDC director says masks more guaranteed to work than a vaccine

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Director Robert Redfield said Wednesday that wearing a mask is more guaranteed to protect someone from the coronavirus than taking a vaccine.Redfiel…

thehill.com

 

[Dashmellow]

I wonder why we don't all use masks for measles?

Because widespread use of measles vaccine has led to a greater than 99% reduction in measles cases compared with the pre-vaccine era.