COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

[kamkar]

yeah come end of August here and the line took off again, and surpassed the numbers we saw in the spring, and though winter have just ended then the line are also dropping fast again here.
Maybe corona are a copy cat flu with a hidden nasty agenda.

 

[Dashmellow]

After a spike in COVID cases here in Vermont going into the winter months from early November into late January, infection rates and hospitalizations began to drop significantly. But it is still very much winter here with a lot of snow and the temperatures in the single digits Fahrenheit during the past weeks. So, there doesn't seem to be a traditional correlation between the disease infection rates and the cold winter weather season.

Vaccinations may be a factor but it would take weeks for immunity levels to start to kick in and cases began dropping before people started getting vaccinated. Also, vaccine supplies were very limited during the first few weeks they were available and they were limited to health care workers and people 75 and older. Now, the vaccine is much more widely available and many other people are now eligible. A lot of people are receiving the vaccine now. But between the weather beginning to warm up in the next few weeks heading into Spring and the administration of vaccines at the same time it will be much more difficult to tell if improvements to the infection rates are a result of the vaccines or the temperatures. Again, I think it will take a year or more until COVID seasonality is better understood .

 

[Dashmellow]

Forget COVID-19. The CDC wants you prepare for the coming Zombie Pandemic!

If you thought the U.S. was caught unprepared for a Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic, imagine what would happen should a zombie apocalypse occur. Would political leaders try to minimize the problem, claiming that becoming a rotting corpse is not so bad or that the apocalypse was “rounding the corner?” Would people be arguing about how many people actually have become zombies, debating whether various people actually are zombies or simply look a little pale? Typically, a good way to tell if a person has become a zombie is to see if he or she tries to eat you. Would some push for a “herd immunity” strategy in which the country just allows the apocalypse to happen?

https://www.cdc.gov/cpr/zombie/novel.htm

 

[Nigel]

EU has millions of Astrazeneca vaccines sitting unused in their fridges, yet they are blocking Astrazeneca exports to Oz

Government says Italy and EU block on vaccine shipment to Australia is 'disappointing and frustrating' but won't affect rollout

Italy and the European Union block a shipment of the Oxford-AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine destined for Australia amid a stoush over contract commitments between the pharmaceutical company and the EU.

www.abc.net.au

Maybe Astrazeneca can send twice as much vaccine from the UK that was previously destined for the EU
I don't think this is going to be forgotten!

 

[kamkar]

It please me to see EU dig its own grave i have a felling the people down there have gone full retard during corona.
And i hopw Au launch a full attack on the nitwits.
Meanwhile Danish PM and Austrian PM are in cahoots with the sons of Abraham, for god know what, cant be anything we can use anytime soon, maybe they know more than i / we do.

 

[Nigel]

Meanwhile Danish PM and Austrian PM are in cahoots with the sons of Abraham, for god know what, cant be anything we can use anytime soon, maybe they know more than i / we do.

Presumably for a new variant version later in the year.

Maybe it will be needed, but so far it doesn't look like it will be necessary. Was listening to a scientist a few days ago who reckoned that we have probably seen all the significant variations we are likely to get, if we get more then they are likely to be variations on the current variants and no more deadly or vaccine immune.

 

[Dashmellow]

Presumably for a new variant version later in the year.

Maybe it will be needed, but so far it doesn't look like it will be necessary. Was listening to a scientist a few days ago who reckoned that we have probably seen all the significant variations we are likely to get, if we get more then they are likely to be variations on the current variants and no more deadly or vaccine immune.

Yesterday, I was listening to a radio interview on PBS with a neuroscientist in Brazil. He wasn't "reckoning", he was observing the facts on the ground. This particular scientist is extremely alarmed about the mutations coming out of the Amazon coupled with the extraordinarily negligent handling of the pandemic by President Jair Bolsonaro that has led to the currently out of control pandemic situation that is occurring right now in Brazil. The fact is that we just don't know yet what will happen going forward so preparing for the possibility of unique, new and potentially dangerous variants going global seems the prudent thing to do.

Brazil’s Covid Crisis Is a Warning to the Whole World, Scientists Say​

Brazil is seeing a record number of deaths, and the spread of a more contagious coronavirus variant that may cause reinfection.

"Preliminary studies suggest that the variant that swept through the city of Manaus is not only more contagious, but it also appears able to infect some people who have already recovered from other versions of the virus. And the variant has slipped Brazil’s borders, showing up in two dozen other countries and in small numbers in the United States."

 

[Nigel]

but it also appears able to infect some people who have already recovered from other versions of the virus.

Sounds terrible, but is it actually a problem?
If it doesn't increase R above 1.0 then no!

 

[Dashmellow]

Sounds terrible, but is it actually a problem?
If it doesn't increase R above 1.0 then no!

It's remarkable how you keep minimizing the severity of this crisis and have been doing so since the pandemic began. People are dying! People are suffering. Economies are floundering. People all over the world have lost their jobs and don't have enough to eat. Children's educations are being disrupted, in some ways permanently, long term. Hospitals in parts of the world are over capacity, turning away patients because they are overwhelmed, have no more beds or ICU capacity.

But you are concerned only with R rates and alleged excess death tolls.

 

[Peter_R]

Exclusive: Oxford study indicates AstraZeneca effective against Brazil variant, source says

Preliminary data from a study conducted at the University of Oxford indicates that the COVID-19 vaccine developed by AstraZeneca PLC is effective against the P1, or Brazilian, variant, a source with knowledge of the study told Reuters on Friday. Early results indicated the AstraZeneca vaccine...

uk.sports.yahoo.com

RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - Preliminary data from a study conducted at the University of Oxford indicates that the COVID-19 vaccine developed by AstraZeneca PLC is effective against the P1, or Brazilian, variant, a source with knowledge of the study told Reuters on Friday.

 

[Dashmellow]

Exclusive: Oxford study indicates AstraZeneca effective against Brazil variant, source says

Preliminary data from a study conducted at the University of Oxford indicates that the COVID-19 vaccine developed by AstraZeneca PLC is effective against the P1, or Brazilian, variant, a source with knowledge of the study told Reuters on Friday. Early results indicated the AstraZeneca vaccine...

uk.sports.yahoo.com

RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) - Preliminary data from a study conducted at the University of Oxford indicates that the COVID-19 vaccine developed by AstraZeneca PLC is effective against the P1, or Brazilian, variant, a source with knowledge of the study told Reuters on Friday.

That misses the point. There are multiple variants active in Brazil, especially in Manaus where they recently found a new dangerous variant no one had seen before.

 

[Peter_R]

That misses the point. There are multiple variants active in Brazil, especially in Manaus where they recently found a new dangerous variant no one had seen before.

With the greatest respect, it does not miss the point. Who found what and where is more to the point. 50% of world genome sequencing is carried out rapidly in the UK. No other country (not even the US) has the experience and the speed to do it. Please show me your source of information for this never seen before variant.

 

[Dashmellow]

With the greatest respect, it does not miss the point. Who found what and where is more to the point. 50% of world genome sequencing is carried out rapidly in the UK. No other country (not even the US) has the experience and the speed to do it.

The concern here is that P.1 is not likely to be the last dangerous mutation "not seen before". In fact, evidence suggests that new mutations are rapidly emerging in Brazil because of the nature of the out-of-control pandemic there possibly coupled with the Amazonian environment. Also keep in mind that the article you linked to says "Preliminary data indicates" that the AstraZeneca PLC is effective against the P1. There is a a lot that is still unknown about SARS CoV-2 variants, yet so many people, especially internet forum pundits speak in absolute terms.

 

[Peter_R]

Where is the authoritive document you talk about? Just remember we are testing all the time and there is no such other variant coming out of Brazil.

 

[Nigel]

The concern here is that P.1 is not likely to be the last dangerous mutation "not seen before". In fact, evidence suggests that new mutations are rapidly emerging...

Yes, you get new mutations with almost every new infection, and we know all of them are potentially dangerous since the virus has been killing people; but it has not been getting more dangerous, unless you count the small increases in transmission with some variants.

The point the scientist was making is that most mutations have no significant effect, or make the virus unviable. There are only a small number of likely mutations it can make and remain viable, and we have already seen most of those. Of course a much more serious one is possible, but that is no more likely than it is with any of the other coronaviruses that we never worry about.

I suggest that your scientist does not understand the science very well!

 

[jokiin]

Yes, you get new mutations with almost every new infection, and we know all of them are potentially dangerous since the virus has been killing people; but it has not been getting more dangerous, unless you count the small increases in transmission with some variants.

it would seem the issue with the mutations to date is not that they are more deadly, but that some have been more easily spread which I guess increases the likelihood of more deaths if the numbers go up

 

[Nigel]

it would seem the issue with the mutations to date is not that they are more deadly, but that some have been more easily spread which I guess increases the likelihood of more deaths if the numbers go up

True, but the extra spread is quite small with all currently known variants, and all the current vaccines have a much bigger effect, so we need the vaccine, and after we get it we no longer need to worry about spread from any of the mutants.

UK deaths today down 41% on 7 days ago - the vaccines are taking effect!

 

[jokiin]

True, but the extra spread is quite small with all currently known variants

how fast it spreads seems somewhat dependent on which media outlet is telling you

UK deaths today down 41% on 7 days ago - the vaccines are taking effect!

probably a combination of vaccines and seasonal influence where the natural roll off starts to happen as well, good timing for the vaccine rollout I guess

 

[Nigel]

how fast it spreads seems somewhat dependent on which media outlet is telling you

Very difficult to measure accurately, so it is probably also somewhat dependent on which scientist the media talk to!

probably a combination of vaccines and seasonal influence where the natural roll off starts to happen as well, good timing for the vaccine rollout I guess

Definitely true, although I think without the vaccines, the UK drop would have leveled off by the time it got this low, instead it looks like in a few days time we will have the lowest new cases in Europe, despite the most testing in the world other than Denmark, most of that coming from the vaccines keeping R less than 1.0.

 

[jokiin]

vaccine is still a good thing, needed to speed things up, otherwise we're at the mercy of the politicians and their ever shifting goal posts