COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

[Dashmellow]

but it has not been getting more dangerous, unless you count the small increases in transmission with some variants.

"A coronavirus variant of concern first reported in Brazil, known as P.1, may be up to 2.2 times more transmissible and could evade immunity from previous COVID-19 infection by up to 61%, a new modelling study by researchers in Brazil and the UK suggests."

I suggest that your scientist does not understand the science very well!

My scientist?

I suggest that opinionated, arrogant amateurs on internet forums should be ignored and we listen instead to actual credentialed scientists with actual expertise.

 

[Dashmellow]

Where is the authoritive document you talk about? Just remember we are testing all the time and there is no such other variant coming out of Brazil.

I didn't mention any "authoritative document". I mentioned a radio interview I heard yesterday evening with a scientist on the ground in Brazil who is studying the matter who expressed concern about multiple new variants. He referred to the current situation in the Brazilian Amazon as a "COVID petri dish". No suggestion has been made to date that any variant other than P.1 has been found outside of Brazil.

I did post links to some New York Times articles, one in particular that refers to multiple Brazilian variants that were being observed. This led to the the discovery of P.1.

"Many variants in their samples shared a set of 21 mutations not seen in other viruses circulating in Brazil. Dr. Faria sent a text message to a colleague: “I think I’m looking at something really strange, and I’m quite worried about this.”

"A few mutations in particular worried him, because scientists had already found them in either B.1.1.7 or B.1.351. Experiments suggested that some of the mutations might make the variants better able to infect cells. Other mutations let them evade antibodies from previous infections or produced by vaccines."

So the concern is that P.1 is not the only mutation lurking out there in Brazil that can become problematic.

 

[Peter_R]

I didn't mention any "authoritative document". I mentioned a radio interview I heard yesterday evening with a scientist on the ground in Brazil who is studying the matter who expressed concern about multiple new variants. He referred to the current situation in the Brazilian Amazon as a "COVID petri dish". No suggestion has been made to date that any variant other than P.1 has been found outside of Brazil.

I did post links to some New York Times articles, one in particular that refers to multiple Brazilian variants that were being observed. This led to the the discovery of P.1.

"Many variants in their samples shared a set of 21 mutations not seen in other viruses circulating in Brazil. Dr. Faria sent a text message to a colleague: “I think I’m looking at something really strange, and I’m quite worried about this.”

"A few mutations in particular worried him, because scientists had already found them in either B.1.1.7 or B.1.351. Experiments suggested that some of the mutations might make the variants better able to infect cells. Other mutations let them evade antibodies from previous infections or produced by vaccines."

So the concern is that P.1 is not the only mutation lurking out there in Brazil that can become problematic.

So it is all hearsay! The doctor in Brazil has no scientific data to rely on (he says according to your post "I think I'm looking at something really strange and I am quite worried about this"). This is just like newspaper crap that tries to sell more copies. If the doctor wants facts he should wait for the results of the genome sequencing from the UK.

Anyway, it is now a fact and reported as such by the Oxford Team that their vaccines can be tweaked in 2 weeks to counteract any of the inevitable virus mutations, and, according to the Medical Authorities do NOT have to go through trials.

Changing the slant slightly, what about the EU?

EU turns to the US in the scramble for Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine​

The move is part of the bloc’s effort to boost the faltering immunisation programme.

Our vaccine was considered no good for the over 65's according to Macron.
He needs to button up.....

The EU will urge the US to permit the export of millions of doses of AstraZeneca’s Covid-19 vaccine to Europe as Brussels scrambles to bridge supply shortfalls that have hobbled its inoculation drive. The European Commission plans to raise the matter in forthcoming transatlantic discussions aimed at boosting collaboration on the fight against Covid-19, EU officials said. The EU also wants Washington to ensure the free flow of shipments of crucial vaccine ingredients needed in European production, including for groundbreaking mRNA technology vaccines. The European push to access US production of the AstraZeneca jab — which was made in collaboration with Oxford university — comes as the company battles to meet first-quarter 2021 EU delivery targets already slashed because of production problems in the bloc. AstraZeneca has also said it intends to source half of its planned second-quarter supply to the EU from elsewhere in the world. The European Commission told the Financial Times: “We trust that we can work together with the US to ensure that vaccines produced or bottled in the US for the fulfilment of vaccine producers’ contractual obligations with the EU will be fully honoured.” The EU move comes after it emerged this week that Italy and the commission had blocked a shipment of AstraZeneca jabs to Australia. That stoked global tensions and fears of vaccine hoarding. The EU is urgently trying to boost a vaccine rollout that has trailed those in both the US and the UK. AstraZeneca declined to comment on the EU effort to access its US production.

 

[Nigel]

Changing the slant slightly, what about the EU?

I think if I was the USA, and had a pile of Astrazeneca vaccine that was not wanted by the USA, then I would give it to Gavi/Covax and let them distribute it through their global channels. Not sure why the USA would give preference to the EU, especially when they have millions of doses unused in their fridges, and presumably the EU production will supply the EU, just not as soon as they would like.

 

[Peter_R]

I think if I was the USA, and had a pile of Astrazeneca vaccine that was not wanted by the USA, then I would give it to Gavi/Covax and let them distribute it through their global channels. Not sure why the USA would give preference to the EU, especially when they have millions of doses unused in their fridges, and presumably the EU production will supply the EU, just not as soon as they would like.

No. I quoted the FT, but could not copy the page with the complete details/facts because of the their Paywall.

 

[SawMaster]

“We trust that we can work together with the US to ensure that vaccines produced or bottled in the US for the fulfilment of vaccine producers’ contractual obligations with the EU will be fully honoured.”

So what they're really saying is that in their own "me first" approach they expect the US to not do the same thing, even when we too have a shortage of the vaccine same as everyone else in the world does

Were I the authorized party to respond to this, the best I could manage to tell them is that they can have the left-overs when we are done with our own, and perhaps they will learn how to do things better next time.

What I personally would like to respond with was once the acronym motto of one of our service branches: AYOOYFM because they obviously are Sorry for the folks in the EU on a personal basis but your chosen government is to blame here and I expect my government to take care of it's own people including me first. If we have something extra to share I hope we wll do that but not at the expense of getting all Americans vaccinated first.

Every government's first prerogative should be to care for it's own people before helping anyone else and there's no wrong in that; indeed that is what it's there for

I truly wish the best for everybody but especially for my fellow US citizens whose health has the most direct impact on me.

Phil

 

[kamkar]

A thing like this, if it was a bit more ugly, that really could bring out the beast in man.

As it is however, it will probably only reveal the true face of some,,,,,, which is also a very very good thing.

 

[Dashmellow]

So it is all hearsay! The doctor in Brazil has no scientific data to rely on (he says according to your post "I think I'm looking at something really strange and I am quite worried about this"). This is just like newspaper crap that tries to sell more copies. If the doctor wants facts he should wait for the results of the genome sequencing from the UK.

Hearsay?​

You obviously are not paying attention. If you had been paying attention you would have noticed that the quote you claim as hearsay is from Dr. Nuno Faria, a virologist specializing in rapid viral evolution at Imperial College London who helped lead research into the new COVID mutations found in Brazil. In the quote he was expressing his concern to a colleague via text message regarding the mutations he was observing in at least three separate genomic studies of the virus that had been conducted in the Brazilian Amazon.

If you had bothered to follow the link I posted with the quote you would have known this. And FYI, the quote I linked to was from The New York Times, a world class newspaper of record, not something akin to a cheap British Tabloid hawking sensationalist headlines as you imply with provocative remarks about "newspaper crap that tries to sell more copies".

 

[Peter_R]

Hearsay?​

You obviously are not paying attention. If you had been paying attention you would have noticed that the quote you claim as hearsay is from Dr. Nuno Faria, a virologist specializing in rapid viral evolution at Imperial College London who helped lead research into the new COVID mutations found in Brazil. In the quote he was expressing his concern to a colleague via text message regarding the mutations he was observing in at least three separate genomic studies of the virus that had been conducted in the Brazilian Amazon.

If you had bothered to follow the link I posted with the quote you would have known this. And FYI, the quote I linked to was from The New York Times, a world class newspaper of record, not something akin to a cheap British Tabloid hawking sensationalist headlines as you imply with provocative remarks about "newspaper crap that tries to sell more copies".

Hearsay?​

You obviously are not paying attention. If you had been paying attention you would have noticed that the quote you claim as hearsay is from Dr. Nuno Faria, a virologist specializing in rapid viral evolution at Imperial College London who helped lead research into the new COVID mutations found in Brazil. In the quote he was expressing his concern to a colleague via text message regarding the mutations he was observing in at least three separate genomic studies of the virus that had been conducted in the Brazilian Amazon.

If you had bothered to follow the link I posted with the quote you would have known this. And FYI, the quote I linked to was from The New York Times, a world class newspaper of record, not something akin to a cheap British Tabloid hawking sensationalist headlines as you imply with provocative remarks about "newspaper crap that tries to sell more copies".

Yes. A lot of this is Hearsay. Please don't patronize me saying I was obviously not paying attention. I was. I just chose not to go along with the New York Times's take on it. As far as saying the New York Times is any more a world class paper.......... than the British Tabloids.....well that takes the biscuit as we say in the UK. They have an opinion the same as the UK papers do and they want to sell as many papers as everyone else does.

Moreover, I would much rather watch what this lady says on our local TV than read the foreign press such as the New York Times.

COVID-19: British professor wins prestigious medal for leading team that created Oxford vaccine

Previous winners of the award include Winston Churchill, Marie Curie, Alexander Graham Bell, Stephen Hawking and Tim Berners-Lee.

news.sky.com

 

[Dashmellow]

Yes. A lot of this is Hearsay. Please don't patronize me saying I was obviously not paying attention. I was. I just chose not to go along with the New York Times's take on it. As far as saying the New York Times is any more a world class paper.......... than the British Tabloids.....well that takes the biscuit as we say in the UK. They have an opinion the same as the UK papers do and they want to sell as many papers as everyone else does.

Moreover, I would much rather watch what this lady says on our local TV than read the foreign press.

COVID-19: British professor wins prestigious medal for leading team that created Oxford vaccine

Previous winners of the award include Winston Churchill, Marie Curie, Alexander Graham Bell, Stephen Hawking and Tim Berners-Lee.

news.sky.com

Based on your remarks, it certainly doesn't sound like you were paying attention. You claimed that, "The doctor in Brazil has no scientific data to rely on" yet the Times article citing the multiple genomic studies Dr. Faria was working with proves otherwise. You also said, "If the doctor wants facts he should wait for the results of the genome sequencing from the UK.", yet Dr. Faria was one of the very researchers in the UK doing the genomic sequencing of the Brazilian viral strains and the quote was his initial reaction to the results he was seeing, so what you are saying here is simply not credible.

The New York Times and its reporters have won more major journalism awards than any other newspaper on the planet including 133 Pulitzer Prizes. Equating the New York Times with gutter level British tabloids is risible and indeed your dismissive attitude simply reveals your apparent ignorance about what constitutes good journalism.

 

[Nigel]

In the quote he was expressing his concern to a colleague via text message regarding the mutations he was observing in at least three separate genomic studies of the virus that had been conducted in the Brazilian Amazon.

"Dr. Faria sent a text message to a colleague: “I think I’m looking at something really strange, and I’m quite worried about this.”

I wonder how the New York Times knows the content of people's private txt messages?
Maybe Dr. Faria wrote the article and got paid well for sensationalising it?

 

[Dashmellow]

"Dr. Faria sent a text message to a colleague: “I think I’m looking at something really strange, and I’m quite worried about this.”

I wonder how the New York Times knows the content of people's private txt messages?
Maybe Dr. Faria wrote the article and got paid well for sensationalising it?

The reporter interviewed Dr. Fario at length and he very likely shared what he said in his text. Simple as that.

Dr. Nuno Fario is a virologist on the Faculty of Medicine, School of Public Health, Imperial College of Medicine, London. He would have no motivation to write paid articles for the New York Times which has no history of sensationalist journalism. Indeed there is nothing sensational about the otherwise informative and excellent article. You should read it.

The actual author of the article is Carl Zimmer, an award winning science writer and journalist behind the long running and highly regarded "Matter" column in The New York Times. He is the author of thirteen books, including “She Has Her Mother's Laugh: The Powers, Perversions, and Potential of Heredity.”

I'm not sure what your motivation is here Nigel, but this a gratuitous and highly insulting post directed at a UK based scientist and professor who you likely never heard of before my mentioning his research into COVID mutations in this thread. You need to cut this sh*t out.

 

[kamkar]

After the South African mutation was found here, it was not that long before the benevolent rulers and their experts gave the all clear on that after a massive test effort in that area.
Maybe a bit too early as not it is found in another place in the other end of the country so to say.

My bank now say they are closed until April 5,,,,,,, i am contemplating going to another bank and pay the fee it cost me to get my piggy bank tallied there and put into my account.
And its not like my bank are overly patriotic, they are in the forefront in all whitewash scandals and tax evasion cases that have popped up recently, so not for the good of their hearts they are closed.

Actually if i was in charge, the permits to do banking here would be revoked for 2 banks, even if it is the largest banks here.

 

[Nigel]

The Indian view of the EU :

 

[kamkar]

18 shots was wasted here the day before yesterday, the people who got them was not able to find anyone that could come in quickly and get the shot.
Which to me are a bit strange.
I dont care much about this thing, but if someone called me to come get a shot i still would.
Problem is no one will call, as no one know i have a phone, but i am not going to change that for a jab in the arm, so i will just have to wait for my turn which will be announced by a good old letter in my mailbox.

 

[SawMaster]

Every new mutation has started out a being 'worrisome' but from what I read the latest one from Brazil is not responding to the vaccines like those previously found, and there is far less protection against it in those who have already had the disease. The main concern with all the later variants is that they appear to be more highly infective and are able to spread more rapidly. Most known coronaviruses don't follow that behavior though it's long been known possible.

Tomorrow I become eligible to register for a place in line to get vaccinated Not sure what they will give me, I think it's been Moderna here so far but we've just got a big shipment of the single-dose J&J version. The State is saying that it's going to be used by mobile clinics for rural areas and for the homeless and housebound who may find it hard to get a second shot with the usual vaccines. Seems to be a good approach but that vaccine is less effective overall. I won't be getting the J&J, but at some point that may be all which is available here. Otherwise it seems there's little difference in the effectiveness of the other western vaccines regardless of what EU leaders and pundits have said. I don't know enough about the ones used in China and Russia to comment on them but I'd be very surprised if they were any less effective.

Our stupid Governor here just removed the mandate for wearing masks in Government buildings and restaurants so I expect that coupled with an early Springtime increasing travel and tourism that is going to cause a resurgence even with the vaccination rates increasing faster. Hopefully I'll get fully vaccinated in time, the risks here are still too high for me to take any chances.

Phil

 

[Nigel]

Otherwise it seems there's little difference in the effectiveness of the other western vaccines regardless of what EU leaders and pundits have said. I don't know enough about the ones used in China and Russia to comment on them but I'd be very surprised if they were any less effective.

Seems to depend on how you measure them, not which vaccine! Maybe not surprising given that it is our immune system that does the work, the vaccine is just a trigger.

The UK surveys of the results of actual vaccinations, rather than trials, have shown the effectiveness keeps increasing for 50 days from the first dose, most of the trials have included results from 2 or 3 weeks onwards resulting in poor results.

Everyone getting the vaccines needs to remember that they have almost no effect for the first 2 weeks, get most of the effect by 4 weeks, And full effect by 8 weeks, probably applies however many doses you get!

I read the latest one from Brazil is not responding to the vaccines like those previously found,

Seems to be some argument about that, not convinced that Brazil's testing is very accurate!

EXCLUSIVE Oxford study indicates AstraZeneca effective against Brazil variant, source says

Preliminary data from a study conducted at the University of Oxford indicates that the COVID-19 vaccine developed by AstraZeneca PLC (AZN.L) is effective against the P1, or Brazilian, variant, a source with knowledge of the study told Reuters on Friday.

www.reuters.com

 

[SawMaster]

All this does point out that we took a disjointed approach to the pandemic regards standards and cooperation. I hope there is no "next time" but if there is we clearly need to do better. With something like this it is a world-wide problem and only world-wide solutions will work. Not pointing fingers, just pointing out there can and must be improvement all-around.

Phil

 

[Harsh]

Don't know about other cities and towns, Delhi at least looks to be quite sorted. One needs to apply online or via the app and you can select one of many centres nearby (by pincode) for a free shot at a govt. hospital/camp or a paid shot at a private hospital, capped at Rs. 250 (3.42 USD). I don't think anything is getting wasted as, in case shots are left from an open vial, they accept people waiting without an appointment. My mother is scheduled to get her shot on the 19th, I hope the side effects are nil or at a minimum.

 

[kamkar]

Cops here have been asked to take surplus shots fast, but they will not do that ( woke bastards, henchmen of the benevolent rulers )
So firefighters ASO have stepped up as they can be at the vaccination place fast too.