So now it seems like we're NOT following a 'herd immunity' strategy any more:
"
We have a plan, based on the expertise of world-leading scientists. Herd immunity is not a part of it. That is a scientific concept, not a goal or a strategy." - Matt Han**** -
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/health-secretary-matt-han****s-sunday-telegraph-op-ed
Express: The UK Government has carried out an embarassing U-turn over its strategy to delay the coronavirus pandemic. On Friday, the UK’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance said the Government’s approach to tackling coronavirus was to create a “herd immunity” to the virus. However, less than 48 hours later, Health Secretary Matt Han**** confirmed that herd immunity “is not our goal or policy”.
Metro: A No 10 source said: ‘It is nothing to do with herd immunity, it is to protect as many people as possible by timing our interventions to perfection. If that also leads to mass immunity, that is a bonus – but it is not the aim’.
Hopefully now we will see clearer and more consistent messages coming from our politicians and scientific advisers
What we are doing seems to have become a bit muddy, especially after the G7 meeting, where it appeared that Boris was told by the others that he must follow the WHO guidance - ie test, test, test, test and lockdown until a vaccine is available.
However the actions taken at the later press conference suggest we are still planning to have herd immunity for the below 70s in about 13 weeks time, with the elderly and otherwise vulnerable in quarantine until then, so that they don't die and can rejoin the rest of the population bringing almost zero virus back. With the elderly in quarantine we probably only need around 45% of the total population to be infected and recovered before the virus dies out, all of them in the almost zero risk category.
No doubt the deaths will increase in the next two weeks as the elderly who are already infected recover, from then on hopefully they will drop rapidly ending up at zero in 13 weeks when we will be back to normal, apart from no foreign travel for the elderly. Clearly there is a bit of uncertainty amongst the experts about what the figures will actually be.
If Italy continues as it currently is then it will get there 3 weeks ahead of us with Spain 2 weeks ahead, with the difference that we will hopefully be more successful at protecting the at risk population, thanks to data from Italy/Spain.
OK, we can't call this herd immunity, and technically it is probably not, but the goal is the same, to quickly wipe out the virus rather than wait for a vaccine which may or may not arrive sometime. Unless Boris closes the schools, then I think that is the goal, but you could just as well say the goal is to manage the requirement for ventilators to not exceed supply, and "If that also leads to mass immunity, that is a bonus – but it is not the aim’."