COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

[Dashmellow]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[Nigel]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

From that link, I see:



The numbers on different pages don't appear to tie up, maybe because the numbers on this table reset at midnight UK time when I look at it when others update at other times.

 

[Nigel]

270 is the total number of newly reported COVID-19 cases in the US, not the daily number.

Not sure what the difference is?
The newly reported figures reset every day, so must be daily figures?

 

[Matt_V939]

The "new cases" are soo much depending on testing.
NO test, no see.

IMHO the ONLY country which have a good grasp of virus spread is south Korea, they did MORE than 200.000 test (they are 50 Million) they got the highest ratio of test per capita.
ALL other countries (i do not consider china) have no real clue about the spread, they just realize once hospitals are getting stormed.
Some can get more positive case per tested because they follow up a cluster.

 

[Nigel]

270 is the total number of newly reported COVID-19 cases in the US, not the daily number. Please refrain from posting misinformation and disinformation. This applies to everyone!

Centers for Disease Control https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

March 8th, 9th and 10th not yet logged.
View attachment 50860

That graph could have been drawn by Trump!
It hides the orange and grey ones on this graph:

 

[SawMaster]

There is some need to try to prevent panic but there is a greater need for timely honesty. News shouldn't be stale from a few days before, but accurate and from what has been seen today as best as is possible.

Part of my own decision-making about what I'm going to do each day hinges on me knowing what's going on around me with this disease so that I can avoid situations I feel are too risky, sort of like checking the weather forecast before planning my day, and right now I'm not finding the info I need easy to get Which does seem to be more of a lack of agencies releasing the data than in news organizations not reporting it Compared to a week ago we're getting far fewer and more widely time-spaced reports from agencies related to this when the opposite should be true. A lot of that is probably because Trump dismantled our national pandemic response mechanism in 2018 with funding cuts so that a lot of time resources are being used to make and enact response plans But regardless of the reason, delaying the news we need isn't going to do anything but make everything worse for everybody. We're not children and we can understand words like "estimated" or "probable" quite well when there's no ability to be exact.

Two new cases in my State- caregivers for an elderly person who tested positive and was in home isolation for about a week already. These people apparently were infected after the infection was known about, which makes no sense at all; they were taking precautions weren't they? But I can't find that answer, and it's a relevant one because it would show whether the methods we're being told to use to protect ourselves are effective or not. I think that point is rather important

And how smart can our Medical people be when one of the Nation's biggest Pharmaceutical firms held a conference a few days ago which has now proven to have allowed the infection dozens of people? Wasn't it clear to them like it was to most of the world that crowds make disease transmission rates higher and add to the risk percentage? Sheesh, this is all nuts, and because of that I think that within in the next week (and probably sooner) me and my fellow Americans everywhere are going to be suddenly discovering themselves in deep doo-doo when they thought they were relatively safe

This is one time where I really hope I'm completely wrong.
Phil

 

[Matt_V939]

Just a question of time...

UK coronavirus outbreak 'could be as bad as Italy's in two weeks'

A scientist at University College London compared the speed of outbreaks in the UK and Italy and said Britain is two weeks away from crisis, as a senior medical officer said 'many thousands' could catch it.

www.dailymail.co.uk

 

[kamkar]

The hospital in my birth town now have a drive thru test, but you cant just show up and drive thru your doctor must still refer you.
On the first day of operation they found 15 new cases.

But as i understand it this are a pretty common thing now in several countries.
The worst thing is ignorant Danes call the emergency hotlines with questions, blocking them for people with real emergencies.

ATM the number of infected go up here with around 100 every day, but that's just the last few days, i expect this number to balloon.
A kindergarten have called kids parents asking them to come and get them after a kids grandparent tested positive, but worst of all a elderly care center are now isolated after a worker there have tested positive, 6 of the elderly have since tested positive too.

Today's numbers is 340 infected / 1231 are voluntarily isolated at home for 2 weeks, but the day are far from over these numbers are from 9 in the morning, so probably just new overnight numbers.

350 kids from a school have been sent home after a kid there tested positive.

I am wondering when we get to town level isolation like seen in other countries.

I hear New Rochelle in upstate NY have now been isolated with the national guard called in to assist.
but no curfew or travel restrictions and shops remain open,,,,, but as we have seen this can change quickly.

 

[Nigel]

I am wondering when we get to town level isolation like seen in other countries.

I don't think there is any point isolating towns, it is going to come anyway, the only useful thing that can be done is to slow the rate to one where the hospitals can cope, so ideally around the same rate as the annual flu. China now seems to have slowed it too much, they have had to close their new "field" hospitals due to lack of patients!

 

[kamkar]

Denmark sure as hell are not going to be able to put up a new hospital in days, even if you look aside the aspect of just building it, rules and regulations ASO will probably make that impossible.
Also we are in the middle of bad pay negotiations with the builders unions, so we could also have a general strike on our hands soon, though Danes beeing the push overs we are that will probably get cansled for the sake of the elderly and kids, no one really care about when push come to shove, but we will still pretend.

 

[DT MI]

Article from Johns Hopkins about the similarities and differences of 'normal' influenza and COVID-19.

COVID-19 vs. the Flu

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

 

[Deleted member 46308]

There is some need to try to prevent panic but there is a greater need for timely honesty. News shouldn't be stale from a few days before, but accurate and from what has been seen today as best as is possible.

Part of my own decision-making about what I'm going to do each day hinges on me knowing what's going on around me with this disease so that I can avoid situations I feel are too risky, sort of like checking the weather forecast before planning my day, and right now I'm not finding the info I need easy to get Which does seem to be more of a lack of agencies releasing the data than in news organizations not reporting it Compared to a week ago we're getting far fewer and more widely time-spaced reports from agencies related to this when the opposite should be true. A lot of that is probably because Trump dismantled our national pandemic response mechanism in 2018 with funding cuts so that a lot of time resources are being used to make and enact response plans But regardless of the reason, delaying the news we need isn't going to do anything but make everything worse for everybody. We're not children and we can understand words like "estimated" or "probable" quite well when there's no ability to be exact.

Two new cases in my State- caregivers for an elderly person who tested positive and was in home isolation for about a week already. These people apparently were infected after the infection was known about, which makes no sense at all; they were taking precautions weren't they? But I can't find that answer, and it's a relevant one because it would show whether the methods we're being told to use to protect ourselves are effective or not. I think that point is rather important

And how smart can our Medical people be when one of the Nation's biggest Pharmaceutical firms held a conference a few days ago which has now proven to have allowed the infection dozens of people? Wasn't it clear to them like it was to most of the world that crowds make disease transmission rates higher and add to the risk percentage? Sheesh, this is all nuts, and because of that I think that within in the next week (and probably sooner) me and my fellow Americans everywhere are going to be suddenly discovering themselves in deep doo-doo when they thought they were relatively safe

This is one time where I really hope I'm completely wrong.
Phil

+1 several times

 

[Nigel]

Denmark sure as hell are not going to be able to put up a new hospital in days, even if you look aside the aspect of just building it, rules and regulations ASO will probably make that impossible.

In the UK, we would just call in the army and it would be probably be built faster than China did it!

There was an interview on TV with a UN expert on Sunday: "she said: “Certainly the UK army has great experience of putting up field hospitals. I’ve worked on Ebola and I’ve seen what the British army can do. It’s quite incredible. "

We are not expecting that to be necessary, but we do have quite a lot of intensive care equipment in storage which may come in useful.

 

[Nigel]

Article from Johns Hopkins about the similarities and differences of 'normal' influenza and COVID-19.

COVID-19 vs. the Flu

www.hopkinsmedicine.org

Worth remembering that the people who are likely to die from the two viruses are the same people, so it is almost a question of which virus gets them first, especially if this year's flu vaccines are not being effective, the total from the flu + Covid 19 may not be much different to just the flu on a bad year, or maybe two bad years in succession since normally some people have some immunity to the flu.

 

[kamkar]

Hehe yeah so far here some military barracks have been instructed to make room available if need be, but no M.A.S.H tent units are planned for just yet.

The current expectations are ( good ) 1200 or so Danes will die from this. ( bad ) and 5300 will die from this, it is expected that 10% of Danes will catch this, so that's 600,000 people
But we can easy get to a place where hospitals just can not keep up with demand, even if you sack all other none lifesaving initiatives in such a place.

Funny enough there have been no talk about what the private hospitals can do in this situation, but i assume the ruling elite have reserved them for them self and their loved ones.

 

[Matt_V939]

.....

I am wondering when we get to town level isolation like seen in other countries.

........

When it is too late and hospitals are on the brink or already being overran.
I have seen All your questions and politician declarations EXACTLY happening in Italy.
Each country (germany, france, UK, USA) are doing exactly the same mistakes which italy did. Denial the problem is happening until HARD evidence pops up in Hospital.

I don't think there is any point isolating towns, it is going to come anyway, the only useful thing that can be done is to slow the rate to one where the hospitals can cope, so ideally around the same rate as the annual flu. .....

by isolating towns YOU SLOW the rate because you will have less people travelling town to town transmitting the infections.
And again, you cannot compare to annual flu for 2 reasons:
- normal flu does not require such high hospitalization rate (seems from the last study 10% instead of 20% and 1% in ICU down from 5%, but still CRAZY HIGH NUMBERS).
- you have medicines, protocols and vaccination for the annual flu, for coronavirus still experimenting.

Hospitals in Italy at breaking point as doctors overwhelmed by coronavirus crisis

Doctor who was on frontline in Aids epidemic fight tells current health crisis is ‘unlike anything’ he’s ever seen before

www.independent.co.uk

 

[Matt_V939]

....

The current expectations are ( good ) 1200 or so Danes will die from this. ( bad ) and 5300 will die from this, it is expected that 10% of Danes will catch this, so that's 600,000 people
But we can easy get to a place where hospitals just can not keep up with demand, even if you sack all other none lifesaving initiatives in such a place.

Funny enough there have been no talk about what the private hospitals can do in this situation, but i assume the ruling elite have reserved them for them self and their loved ones.

Which means that with current lowered std for hospitalization rate you need 60.000 beds in hospital and 6.000 ICU.
Patient NO1(fit with no previous illnesses 38 years old half marathon runner) needed ventilation in ICU for 18 days.

the region in Italy where it happened and where hospital are on the brink of being overrun, scored in OECD regions 9.9/10 for Health (top 5% in OECD compared to other OECD regions)

OECD Regional Well-Being - How is life in Lombardy?

How does your region perform when it comes to education, environment, safety and other topics important to your well-being? This interactive site allows you to measure well-being in your region and compare it with 447 OECD regions based on eleven topics central to the quality of our lives.

oecdregionalwellbeing.org

If you live in the EU you can check your region's score.

 

[kamkar]

Yes no cure for corona, they can only treat the symptoms, not the decease.
Danes and our politicians are experts in denial, so i assume this will hit us hard, but i have no illusions that afterwards people will think or ask questions.
I am pretty sure they operate with 2 sets of numbers, the set for them self, and the set they go public with,,,,,,,,, as you can hear i have zero trust what so ever in those people.

 

[Nigel]

you have medicines, protocols and vaccination for the annual flu, for coronavirus still experimenting.

Sometimes we have vaccinations for flu that work, but not always.
As for medicines and protocols, they are basically the same, because you end up treating pneumonia, not corvid-19 or flu. We have no treatments for the actual viruses, just the resulting damage.

Patient NO1(fit with no previous illnesses 38 years old half marathon runner) needed ventilation in ICU for 18 days.

Itallian Patient No. 1 is not a good health care story:

Mattia first went to the hospital in Codogno on Feb. 18 complaining of flu-like symptoms. He was sent home but came back the next day after his condition worsened dramatically. He was only tested for coronavirus after doctors learned that in early February he had met with a man who had been to China.

By then, however, he had infected his wife and several doctors, nurses and patients at the Codogno hospital,...

 

[Matt_V939]

.....


Itallian Patient No. 1 is not a good health care story:

Oh, but there was a follow-up.
After they tested the man who had been to china he was tested BOTH negative for the virus AND for the antibodies (he was NEVER infected).
That's was a WRONG assumption which lead to testing him for coronavirus (=he got the virus from the man from china).
He should have gotten the virus from someone else.

No not a "bad" health care story but a Lucky diagnose (doctors were puzzled that's why they pressed the wife remembering the meeting with the man from china who, ironically, was not the source of the infection).

EDIT:
"..
Mattia first went to the hospital in Codogno on Feb. 18 complaining of flu-like symptoms. He was sent home but came back the next day after his condition worsened dramatically. He was only tested for coronavirus after doctors learned that in early February he had met with a man who had been to China.

By then, however, he had infected his wife and several doctors, nurses and patients at the Codogno hospital, creating what was thought initially to have been Italy’s main cluster. Since his China contact turned out to be negative, though, experts now believe that the virus had been circulating widely and quietly in northern Italy since at least the second half of January....."

Patient No. 1 is out of ICU as virus pushes Italy to brink

Italian doctors are celebrating one small victory in their battle against the coronavirus after Patient No. 1 — a 38-year-old Unilever worker named Mattia — was moved out of intensive care

abcnews.go.com