COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

[Nigel]

I'm not sure there's much value in finding "patient zero"

The value of tracing patient zero is in finding the source, because it is highly likely that the source is still there and capable of re-infecting the world at a later date. Until the risk from the source is eliminated, the job will not be done.

Even more important is that the source may have other viruses waiting to be spread, and that risk also needs to be removed.

To truly know the status of the disease in any area there must be 100% testing of everyone until no more positives are found,

If you could test everyone before breakfast every day, and have the result by the time breakfast is finished so that infected people don't go out and infect others during the day, then 100% testing would be highly desirable, but that is not going to be possible.

Unfortunately the current testing is not telling us exactly how many people have been infected, are currently infected, and how many are still at risk of infection. Even if we did test everyone every day, the current tests will still not tell us that answer. Very few countries have published believable results from antibody testing, so we have no idea of the current amounts of immunity around the world. Much of the current testing is not really helping us get to end the epidemic, it is just generating numbers to feed to the press and make the politicians look like they have control and know what they are doing!

Had this approach been taken from the start it would have been a lot easier to follow through with contract tracing of the positives thus being more able to maintain control of the situation regardless of the method of handling it whether by elimination, herd immunity, or whatever. Knowledge is power, but guessing isn't knowledge.

In rural areas of most countries that would have been possible, but with the amount of contact people have in the larger cities, it was never going to be got under control until it was slowed by increasing immunity. Public transport is always going to spread it fast, even with people wearing masks. Even Wuhan doesn't show that it can be done, since Wuhan developed a significant amount of immunity before it was brought under control.

 

[kamkar]

Yeah @SawMaster i dont think it is that we lack people to do those tests, and i also think the machinery are there to do it too, i dont think it is run 24/7 ATM, just something that have gotten forgotten or just ignored, i blame the ever present Danish government incompetence.
its like you can have 25 guys filling a Olympic sized pool with buckets in 8 days using a 7 hour work day, but suddenly the same 25 people are expected to fill the pool in 2 days, in which case those poor bastards better run all they can and do that 24/7.
The responsible thing would be to assign another 50 people with buckets to help, cuz when it is all said and done i dont think this virus crisis put aside the Danish ruled for working, and you cant just work as you or your employer wish, i think we still have the 11 hour rule, which say in consecutive work days you must have at least 11 hours where you are not working.
And also all the other rules we have for a safe / healthy work environment, though even in non virus times this are not something that get enforced much, this is just one of the things here that annoy me, why have laws no one enforce or on the personal level care about upholding, seem so ridiculous to me and my OCD.

Yeah i respect the guys doing all they can, big thumbs up to those guys.

it is indeed unfortunate i have a tendency to focus on the bad stuff in people, but at least its not so bad i am not willing to give people a chance, but to protect myself i must take a skeptical and cautious approach so i stand the best chance of getting pleasant surprised, or if things turn out as i expected i dont feel so let down becuz i knew it in advance.

So while my approach are " everyone are idiots" i of course do not want to make people feel i think that, that would be rude and not a way to start a good relationship.

 

[Nigel]

This ain't influenza!

Rare syndrome tied to COVID-19 kills three children in New York, Cuomo says

(Reuters) - "Three children in New York have died from a rare inflammatory syndrome believed to be linked to the novel coronavirus, Governor Andrew Cuomo said on Saturday, a development that may augur a pandemic risk for the very young."

"Cuomo, who has emerged as a leading national voice on states’ response to the coronavirus crisis, said state health officials were reviewing 73 similar cases, which have rattled a prior assumption that children were largely not susceptible to the novel coronavirus.

“We are not so sure that is the fact anymore. Toddler, elementary school children are presenting symptoms similar to Kawasaki disease or toxic shock-like syndrome,” Cuomo said. “It’s very possible that this has been going on for several weeks and it hasn’t been diagnosed as related to COVID.”

Slightly above the normal rate due to people avoiding going to hospital because of covid-19 worries until it is too late?

At least 3,000 US children are diagnosed with Kawasaki disease each year. It is most common in children younger than six and in boys.

Kawasaki disease can't be prevented. Children can make a full recovery within 6 to 8 weeks if it's diagnosed and treated promptly, but complications can develop.

It's important to see a GP and start treatment as soon as possible.

If the condition goes untreated, complications can be fatal in about 2 to 3% of cases.

Kawasaki disease

Kawasaki disease is a condition that mainly affects children under the age of 5. It's also known as mucocutaneous lymph node syndrome.

www.nhs.uk

Another reason to get the epidemic over quickly to reduce the number of people dying of other things because of the epidemic situation.

 

[SawMaster]

The value of tracing patient zero is in finding the source, because it is highly likely that the source is still there and capable of re-infecting the world at a later date. Until the risk from the source is eliminated, the job will not be done.

Even more important is that the source may have other viruses waiting to be spread, and that risk also needs to be removed.

You've missed the point entirely that we can probably never identify the actual original first person infected, thus we will not have a good chance of finding the actual source by finding the first identifiable patient who received medical treatment for this. The real "patient zero" is in all likelihood buried in a grave somewhere written off as having died of complications of the common flu. Even if you identify the locale, you're still left with dozens of bodies to be exhumed and tested who fit that profile in the expected timeframe, and some of those who diesd could have been cremated which of course would make testing them impossible.

If you could test everyone before breakfast every day, and have the result by the time breakfast is finished so that infected people don't go out and infect others during the day, then 100% testing would be highly desirable, but that is not going to be possible.

Once again you're going to extremes and missing the point. You do not need to test everyone every day; you only need to test everyone regularly until all tests come back negative then retest everyone after an adequate 'incubation' period has elapsed and the retesting done then also comes back as all negative. Show me where any case could escape that within the abilities of the tests and as long as nobody was missed. You cannot do that because the only possible cases missed this way would be due to testing errors or missed persons- any other result would be impossible.

Unfortunately the current testing is not telling us exactly how many people have been infected, are currently infected, and how many are still at risk of infection. Even if we did test everyone every day, the current tests will still not tell us that answer. Very few countries have published believable results from antibody testing, so we have no idea of the current amounts of immunity around the world. Much of the current testing is not really helping us get to end the epidemic, it is just generating numbers to feed to the press and make the politicians look like they have control and know what they are doing!

The antibody test done by Abbot Labs has been found to be from 95% to 98% accurate, with an even higher rate of there being no false negatives. This has been verified by more than a few highly acclaimed and highly respected Medical entities, and many many more similar institutions have agreed that this seems to match the results they are seeing though they haven't done a similar fully clinical study of it. Also agreed by these same sources is that so far they have not seen any other tests with this level of accuracy though some may be high enough in accuracy to be useful anyway. And once again here we're all seeing that your miming of your governments official approach (which all too early wrote off all antibody tests as too inaccurate the be used) has proven itself wrong, yet somehow you either fail to see the obvious or simply do not want to admit to that. A closed-mind approach to anything is as useful as a closed parachute to a skydiver with both having invariably bad results.

In rural areas of most countries that would have been possible, but with the amount of contact people have in the larger cities, it was never going to be got under control until it was slowed by increasing immunity. Public transport is always going to spread it fast, even with people wearing masks. Even Wuhan doesn't show that it can be done, since Wuhan developed a significant amount of immunity before it was brought under control.

Oh then perhaps I'm mistaken; Wellinton or Auckland New Zealand are actually not the big cities they claim to be (and actually are) so therefore that country cannot possibly have achieved the excellent results it has in controlling the spread of Covid-19. And they are not the only examples of larger cities dealing with Covid-19 this well. Wuhan is actually a great example of what can be done to fight this when you consider how widespread and rampant Covid-19 was there before the necessary actions were undertaken. Moreso when you consider it's population density. That it hasn't resulted in 100% eradication there means little when they have achieved nearly that with so bad a situation to start with. It is as much as is humanly possible to achieve, and that limitation applies to everyone everywhere. And it was their actions more than any developed immunity which got them there; one need only to look at Italy, Spain, the UK, and the USA to see what results from a half-a$$ed approach gets you for results. Before this is over we're going to have nearly as many dead as if we'd done nothing at all

So based on Nigel's apparent logic, we simply need to overlook anything not to our liking to solve the problems life brings, now let's all take that approach instead and thus bring a quick end to Covid-19. Wow, I feel better already- don't you? One of the rules of life I live by is this: Better to keep your mouth shut and have people think you are stupid than to open your mouth and remove any doubts they might have has about that. As this thread has turned into such an inground defecation receptacle I'm done with commentary here for awhile. Hey, it smells better already and this time I'm not being facetious!

Phil

 

[country_hick]

I am going off topic in this part of the off topic section because I can no longer stay on topic dang it!

What is a good video hosting site besides youtube? I remember one that ended in .nz but can not recall what it was.
All options are welcome whether they end in .nz or not.

 

[kamkar]

A lot of places open up here tomorrow, shopping malls - cinemas and what not, of course all with strict rules outside of the general keep distance rules.
On the other hand South Korea that also opened up some things, are closing things again after a flare up of cases.

mega.nz are good for file share, also videos, but for download i dont think you can stream from there.

 

[country_hick]

A lot of places open up here tomorrow, shopping malls - cinemas and what not, of course all with strict rules outside of the general keep distance rules.
On the other hand South Korea that also opened up some things, are closing things again after a flare up of cases.

mega.nz are good for file share, also videos, but for download i dont think you can stream from there.

Thank you. I am pretty sure that is the one I was thinking of. I was not looking to stream.

 

[kamkar]

videos you share from google drive i think you can stream from there ? but of course if you are trying to avoid google services then that's no good.
I lost my mega account a few weeks ago, due to no traffic they closed it down, and i let them i will just make a new one the next time it is needed.

 

[Nigel]

A lot of places open up here tomorrow, shopping malls - cinemas and what not, of course all with strict rules outside of the general keep distance rules.
On the other hand South Korea that also opened up some things, are closing things again after a flare up of cases.

Hope that works out, but Germany, which has almost identical deaths and cases numbers to Denmark, seems to be struggling with insufficient immunity. You both have far more than South Korea, but maybe not enough yet.

Coronavirus: Germany infection rate rises as lockdown eases

Just days after Angela Merkel loosens restrictions, the estimated virus reproduction rate rises.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[kamkar]

Sweden say they have heard immunity mid June, but a lot of people question that.
First off its based on just 40% of swedes having been infected, and it pretty much disregard that many infected dont really seem to generate much resistance to the damn thing.

Anyways, we will see, they must be keeping a close eye on numbers.

 

[Dashmellow]

Slightly above the normal rate due to people avoiding going to hospital because of covid-19 worries until it is too late?

Kawasaki disease

Kawasaki disease is a condition that mainly affects children under the age of 5. It's also known as mucocutaneous lymph node syndrome.

www.nhs.uk

Another reason to get the epidemic over quickly to reduce the number of people dying of other things because of the epidemic situation.

As I've pointed out twice already what is interesting about your replies here are not the things you mention but the things you choose to ignore. So, once again you are moving the goalposts and changing the subject to avoid being called out for making completely incorrect remarks and stating them to be facts.

Yesterday, I posted the story about children dying from serious inflammatory disease associated with COVID-19 infection specifically to counter your claim that:

The medical science has already shown that the virus can't get into the children's bodies, only infect their throat/lungs.

So, now in reply you ignore that and post a link about Kawasaki disease where you seek to minimize the incidence and death rate among these children. Either you didn't read the article or you are simply trying to evade the facts.

Reports emerging about the situation show that physicians initially thought these cases were Kawasaki Disease but doctors in Europe and New York have now begun to identify the cases as a rare complication linked to COVID-19 in children experiencing symptoms similar to Kawasaki Disease or a "toxic shock-like syndrome". Based on testing, what was originally thought to be actual Kawasaki Disease has now been changed to a diagnosis of as PIMS, or pediatric inflammatory multi-system syndrome. While this new syndrome appears highly likely to be caused by coronavirus the data and facts are still emerging.

Several new cases have now been reported in Los Angeles as of yesterday: "The three cases that have been identified at Children's Hospital were all cases where the child was, in fact, positive for antibodies for COVID- 19," Ferrer said. "So we're going to work with the entire country at better understanding these risks for children."...."there has been a link to the following — a child has tested positive for having antibodies to COVID-19, meaning that, at some point in the past, they had the infection, or a child is currently positive for COVID-19."

Case have been reported in the UK:

Coronavirus: Irish paediatricians warned about rare syndrome as some UK children die

(April 27, 2020)

U.K. Health Officials Warn Coronavirus-Related Inflammatory Condition Could Be Emerging in Children

So far there are at least 73 cases in New York:

Rare disease linked to COVID-19 a new threat to New York children

Everything you need to know about a mysterious illness that could be linked to coronavirus in children

New York launches studies into deadly illness affecting children infected with COVID-19

"The illnesses are causing inflammation of blood vessels among infants, toddlers and elementary school children"

"During his May 9 press conference, Governor Cuomo said that the children sickened with Kawasaki disease symptoms or toxic shock-like syndrome either tested positive for COVID-19 or had antibodies for the virus in their system."

Cases of children with COVID-19 have been reported in Italy and Spain.

Epidemiology of COVID-19 Among Children in China.

"2135 pediatric patients with COVID-19 were reported to the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention from January 16, 2020, to February 8, 2020,"

"Children of all ages appeared susceptible to COVID-19, and there was no significant sex difference. Although clinical manifestations of children's COVID-19 cases were generally less severe than those of adult patients, young children, particularly infants, were vulnerable to infection."

"The distribution of children's COVID-19 cases varied with time and space, and most of the cases were concentrated in Hubei province and surrounding areas. Furthermore, this study provides strong evidence of human-to-human transmission."

Like Covid-19 itself much is still unknown about this new syndrome appearing in children. It's foolish and even reckless for amateur, armchair infectious disease "experts" like you Nigel to be making blanket statements and assumptions about the course and nature of COVID-19 when even the legitimate researchers, virologists and epidemiologists are still struggling to understand this new pathogen. Of course, you insist on presenting yourself as the world's most perfect expert on literally every subject but it's pretty easy to see what a false narrative that is.

So, to review here, despite your attempts to distract from the original story, your claim that "medical science has already shown that the virus can't get into the children's bodies" is completely false.

As for the "get the epidemic over quickly" strategy you keep promoting, certainly everyone would love for that to be possible. The problem is that according to you we have to induce mass fatalities regardless of the cost to society in order to achieve public health. (currently 31,855 UK deaths and counting in less than 3 months) To make such an odious sentiment even worse is the fact that full herd immunity is still an uncertainty. Some experts are cautioning that COVID-19 may become a permanent aspect of everyday life to some still unknown extent. Just this morning I heard an interview with a nurse who was infected early on in the course of the pandemic who, despite recovery and discharge from the hospital is still battling serious symptoms two and a half months later and is in quarantine again for evaluation because it is thought she may still be able to transmit the virus. Much is still unknown!

 

[Dashmellow]

@Dashmellow I'm liking your in-depth research and responses, but you and I tend to be "too wordy" sometimes Do keep up the good fight but don't forget there's more to life than our dashcam forum and this thread, and those other things are probably more pleasant endeavors. We all need some pleasantness to balance out the rest so be sure you're getting enough of that too Be well and I hope this last blast of winter gets done with us soon so you can once again go out and enjoy your photography to the fullest- we're all looking forward to seeing what you share with us from your idyllic part of the world once again!

Phil

Well, it seems winter still doesn't want to give up the ghost just yet even here in mid May. We got more snow again yesterday with the temperture dropping to well below freezing. I awoke to intense snowfall which left about an inch on the ground. Then the sun came out and melted much of it only to start snowing again in the afternoon, this time leaving two more inches behind. Can't recall ever seeing it snow on May 9th here. Hopefully, this will finally be the end of it but I'm not taking any chances putting my gardens in just yet, although a few seedlings may go in the ground under special cold frames I've built.

 

[kamkar]

Yeah i saw NYC got some snow too.

In Denmark precipitation have gone up 10% over 50 years ago, and really if i could find a table of that it is probably the last decade or 2 we have seen that spike.
Sadly it is not falling as snow, that we get less and less off, it is more rain we get and more heavy rain, i cant remember a single mentioning of flooding from when i was a kid / teen / young, but seem like we get a few of those every year now.

 

[Dashmellow]

Yeah i saw NYC got some snow too.

In Denmark precipitation have gone up 10% over 50 years ago, and really if i could find a table of that it is probably the last decade or 2 we have seen that spike.
Sadly it is not falling as snow, that we get less and less off, it is more rain we get and more heavy rain, i cant remember a single mentioning of flooding from when i was a kid / teen / young, but seem like we get a few of those every year now.

It's always important not to confuse the weather with climate change but looking back over the last few decades the weather patterns here definately do seem to be changing. We get more extreme heat waves, more extreme winters and more precipitation. And in the mix there have been a couple of unusually severe droughts. Many of the old time farmers nearby comment on how the climate is different from when they were children working on the family farm. The wildlife has changed too, as some animals are migrating in and out of their usual range, although some of that is the result of management efforts.

 

[country_hick]

 

[country_hick]

I saw this:

Autopsies Prove that COVID-19 is a Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation (Pulmonary Thrombosis)

Autopsies Prove that COVID-19 is a Disseminated Intravascular Coagulation (Pulmonary Thrombosis) It is now clear that the whole world has been attacking the so-called Coronavirus Pandemic wrongly due to a serious pathophysiological diagnosis error. According to valuable information from Italian path

www.linkedin.com

That led me to this: COVID-19 May Be Associated with Novel Pulmonary-Specific Vasculopathy

COVID-19 May Be Associated with Novel Pulmonary-Specific Vasculopathy

Given that thrombotic risk is significantly affected by race, researchers suggested that these findings may indicate that pulmonary vasculopathy may contribute to the unexplained differences in racial susceptibility to COVID-19 mortality.

www.cancernetwork.com

The research is here:

Autopsy Findings and Venous Thromboembolism in Patients With COVID-19: A Prospective Cohort Study - PubMed

University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Incidence of venous thromboembolism in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 - PubMed

The observed risk for VTE in COVID-19 is high, particularly in ICU patients, which should lead to a high level of clinical suspicion and low threshold for diagnostic imaging for DVT or PE. Future research should focus on optimal diagnostic and prophylactic strategies to prevent VTE and...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[country_hick]

It's always important not to confuse the weather with climate change but looking back over the last few decades the weather patterns here definitely do seem to be changing. We get more extreme heat waves, more extreme winters and more precipitation.

Grandfather said in the 1930's the weather was warmer than it was 50 years later. Some crops grew well in the 30's that could not be grown in the same fields 50 years later. The climate always changes.

 

[Dashmellow]

Grandfather said in the 1930's the weather was warmer than it was 50 years later. Some crops grew well in the 30's that could not be grown in the same fields 50 years later. The climate always changes.

The weather does indeed change over time. What is different now are the extremes and the changes in large weather patterns. Climate change is more than things just getting warmer or colder than before. For example, the excess C02 in the atmosphere is causing the oceans to become more acidic and this is damaging calcium levels in the shells of various sea creatures. It's literally the same process that makes carbonated beverages rot your teeth.
Like I said, there is a difference between the weather and the climate. Science tells us that the climate itself is changing due to these measurable increases in fossil fuel caused C02 in the atmosphere. In April, 2020 the C02 level in the atmosphere reached 416.21 ppm, the highest ever. 350 parts per million has been identified as the safe upper limit to avoid a climate tipping point.

 

[kamkar]

Indeed, knowledge also change.
Even here, farmers of today have little or no knowledge of the old Danish farmers, so we have probably already lost simple things that was quite beneficial.
Most do not know plowing a field are pretty disruptive for the soil, cuz the things in the soil are tuned to living at different depths in the soil, soo when you flip it over with your huge plow, you put things that live deep and dont like much oxygen on top, and then things on top needing oxygen you bury deep.
So some are experimenting with non soil disrupting farming, where you dont flip the soil with a plow you just loosen it up for your new crop.

And dont get me started on what ancient man around the world seem to have been able to do, with as far as we know next to no tools at all, it do seem like we at some point had a massive death of knowledge.
But yes it is also proven that climate even before we humans really got going was able to fluctuate wildly, and with the arrival of industry on the large scale we might throw a spanner in the works.

Not that it is needed any more, but i am amazed of the stone ( flint ) tools still made here into the bronze age, that was shaped like bronze tools, but it is fairly easy to cast a bronze knife, but i think a lot harder to replicate that in stone.

Stone age tools was pretty rough stuff, but in the end it was amazing what they could make out of a stone using just another stone as tool.

 

[Dashmellow]

Yeah, the precision and sharpness of those early chipped stone chert and flint tools was pretty amazing. Flint is a remarkably versatile and important material in man's technological development for weapons, cutting tools and fire right up through to the flintlock rifle.