@Nigel Either you're testing or you are guessing, and no professional in any field would find the latter acceptable when any amount of the former is possible. This the first principle, the heart and core of Engineering, which makes me wonder about someone who claims such a background yet eschews testing and prefers empirical evidence instead. Asymptomatic carriers of Covid-19 can spread the disease equally to those exhibiting symptoms, and testing is by far the best way to find such carriers, and almost the only way.
To truly know the status of the disease in any area there must be 100% testing of everyone until no more positives are found, then retesting after an interval to be certain that the first round didn't miss someone who just acquired the disease but hadn't yet built enough quantity of it to show on the test.
This is the only way to know what's going on- nothing else is acceptable. And it's eminently possible and could have been done more quickly and efficiently now had there been a push towards it from the beginning of the response. I called for this approach right from the start but who am I but a simple supposedly stupid Carpenter who can't possibly understand such a thing.
I hereby dare anyone to prove me wrong, and I do so without worry 
Had this approach been taken from the start it would have been a lot easier to follow through with contract tracing of the positives thus being more able to maintain control of the situation regardless of the method of handling it whether by elimination, herd immunity, or whatever. Knowledge is power, but guessing isn't knowledge.
@old4570 My friend, I fear you've underestimated the true number of SFB people. My assessment is at least one third, with another third being halfway there. It takes such a majority to cause the mess our world is in now, and because it has gotten this bad I'm at a loss of knowing how to fix that
But you're 100% correct on how botched the governments (ALL of them) have been in their response, with only a scant few choosing a good approach and implementing it in time for it to have been effective. Yet even those few cannot take full credit for the end results because they were also very lucky in having so few cases that was actually possible to create an effective response. With so many SFB's out there we ARE getting the governments the masses deserve (which drags us along with them) but at least we can take solace in knowing there's still a few of us whose brains do more than filling a void inside of our skulls. I hope you and those you care about come through this mess unscathed
@jokiin I'm not sure we can ever know for certain who "patient zero" was. Prior to identifying Covid-19 the symptoms would have been identified as influenza, and if that was in an elderly or infirm person there would have been nothing seen as unusual in their dying from it. It's more probable than simply possible that there was a short unknown chain of infected people before whoever we identify as 'patient zero". Without knowing those unknown we may not ever be able to identify the source
so other than for a study of how Covid-19 has spread I'm not sure there's much value in finding "patient zero" unless indeed they were truly the very first one. I see it as something like a 'trivia fact'; interesting knowledge but of very limited value or usefulness
I think our energies are better spent looking for solutions at present- there will be plenty of time to look at the base causes later on when we've got more free time to devote to that. There is a downside to finding and publicizing whoever "patient zero" was as that gives the tin-hatters, haters, deniers, and SFB people someone to focus their evil on which here in the US is already happening against China as these 'people' believe that's where it began and nothing you can say will change their defective minds
Sometimes it's better to just say nothing, a lesson in life you and Jon reminded me of not so long ago, which I thank you for. ATB to you and yours!
@kamkar1 I'm sorry to hear how overloaded the Medical testing responders there are. FWIW the rest of the world in in a similar situation but perhaps not to this degree. No matter how dedicated, driven, and encouraged we are in the end we're all humans who will reach a point of exhaustion if we push ourselves too far for too long. That must be taken into account and be compensated for not only to save those people from becoming 'zombies' but to get the rest of us their best response. I know you generally have a low view of your fellow citizenry there but perhaps you can take heart in knowing that there are at least some there who will give their all for others- a very honorable quality for a person to have
@Dashmellow I'm liking your in-depth research and responses, but you and I tend to be "too wordy" sometimes
Do keep up the good fight but don't forget there's more to life than our dashcam forum and this thread, and those other things are probably more pleasant endeavors. We all need some pleasantness to balance out the rest so be sure you're getting enough of that too
Be well and I hope this last blast of winter gets done with us soon so you can once again go out and enjoy your photography to the fullest- we're all looking forward to seeing what you share with us from your idyllic part of the world once again!
Phil
