COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

[Nigel]

The very fact that there are even this many folks this age who have survived COVID-19 at all is quite remarkable

No, it is not remarkable, it is normal, most people have an immune system capable of fighting off all known viruses, and that includes the elderly! If they didn't then they wouldn't be here!

You seem to have an obsession with death, to the extent that you have come to believe that most people who catch the virus die, but that is not the case. We have still not reached the death toll of the 1999 flu epidemic.

It is the people having difficulties that need to be studied, to discover why they are having problems and how they can be saved.

 

[kamkar]

DEATH ! the final adventure, to boldly go where all men have gone before.

 

[old4570]

How many need to die ?

The USA is running at about 5% ...
If you were to say allow 50% of the population to be infected for immunity .. 160 million ...
With a 5% mortality rate .. That's 8 million people .

UK has 223K confirmed cases with 32k deaths ... Thats better than 10% at the moment .

So if you went with the heard mentality ...

66 million with 10% mortality = 6 million dead !

Go for it !

 

[old4570]

Sorry , I forgot !

There are currently 3 strains of Covid 19 ...
If you went for the heard mentality ( I do mean mentality ) , there is a huge chance the virus will mutate and you will have more strains .
And just cos you got it . survived and have immunity to one , does not guarantee you wont be infected by another strain .
So if you allow Covid 19 to run unchecked , there is a chance it will mutate into something worse .
Especially since animals ( Cats ) can catch and transmit Covid 19 , so it has proven it can cross species . ( More opportunity for mutation )

 

[kamkar]

hehe tempting numbers, for a person like me that see massive deaths of humans as a solution to the problems of the world.
But as i will probably be one of the unfortunate myself ( and that's okay too ) i would prefer if it was something faster, maybe a right sized stone from space hitting mid Atlantic ocean where it will then mainly cause a horrible large tsunami.
Maybe 2 of those with the other one hitting in the Pacific, though that will mean our American friends will be hit from 2 sides.

Washing the slate clean so to say.

That stone that back in time hit Central America and killed off a lot of things, with only minute changes to that event it would have hit in a place where it would not have had such a global impact.
But Karma sure flipped off earth on that one, though we humans are probably fortunate that happened.

 

[kamkar]

BTW a while back i found a funny video on YT, someone playing with the idea of things hitting earth wit the speed of light, you actually have to throw something pretty big to get a significant impact even at those speeds.
A pyramid will be the end of our American friends that's also some over the top rail gun.

As i understand space, massive objects dont really travel at those kind of speeds.

 

[Nigel]

If you were to say allow 50% of the population to be infected for immunity

You think you have a choice between 50% and 1%?

There are already 4 USA states officially over 1% based on the normal testing and most states are well over that in reality, New York reported over 25% based on antibody testing, 28% among health workers, so 1% is definitely not a choice.

Unless a vaccine arrives faster than expected then you will have no choice but to go over 50%, the only control you have is how long it takes you to arrive there.

 

[country_hick]

How many people infected with the virus show no symptoms?
Apparently, a lot.

If people have no symptoms how can anything be done to prevent viral transmission? It would be impossible to test everyone. I could not have the virus today, get it tomorrow, get tested the next day, and showing no symptoms might be able to give it to someone else 2 weeks later. This virus can be limited but not removed from nature until it burns itself out.

More than half of Portland Tyson workers who tested positive for COVID-19 showed no symptoms

More than half of the workers at the Tyson Foods facility in Portland who tested positive for coronavirus did not show any symptoms at the time of testing, the company said Monday.

www.wmtw.com

 

[country_hick]

That stone that back in time hit Central America and killed off a lot of things.

Just so you know a space rock or stone in space is called an "asteroid". We all knew you what were referring to.

 

[Nigel]

How many people infected with the virus show no symptoms?
Apparently, a lot.

If people have no symptoms how can anything be done to prevent viral transmission? It would be impossible to test everyone. I could not have the virus today, get it tomorrow, get tested the next day, and showing no symptoms might be able to give it to someone else 2 weeks later. This virus can be limited but not removed from nature until it burns itself out.

More than half of Portland Tyson workers who tested positive for COVID-19 showed no symptoms

More than half of the workers at the Tyson Foods facility in Portland who tested positive for coronavirus did not show any symptoms at the time of testing, the company said Monday.

www.wmtw.com

The studies have varied, but between 50 and 75% asymptomatic for most studies, probably closer to the higher number once you remove all factors that could affect the result.

On the testing, remember that for most testing you don't get the result the same day you take the test, so you could become infectious today, get tested tomorrow, find out the next day, and then self isolate the day after. We can slow the spread, but to actually wipe it out is not going to happen in most countries until we get to herd immunity level, either by vaccine or naturally, depending on which comes first. Slowing the spread by a large amount is not necessarily a good idea.

For mass testing, the UK has decided to do some by post, as the only practical way to reach a large part of the population. This means that when you detect symptoms, day 1 you go onto the web site and order the test kit, day 2 the test kit arrives, you take the sample and post it back to the lab, day 3 the lab tests it and sends the results, day 4 you find out that you need to self isolate, but by then you are a week into the infection and probably not very infectious any more! Testing gives interesting numbers, but it will not wipe out the virus.

Even Australia who are really trying, had another 16 today, they got it down to 20 three weeks ago, those last few are really hard to get! If they carry on trying really hard until a vaccine arrives then they may save quite a few lives, but at a big cost, and there is no guarantee that it wont flare up again when the winter sets in, viruses like colder weather.

 

[Dashmellow]

No, it is not remarkable, it is normal, most people have an immune system capable of fighting off all known viruses, and that includes the elderly! If they didn't then they wouldn't be here!

You seem to have an obsession with death, to the extent that you have come to believe that most people who catch the virus die, but that is not the case. We have still not reached the death toll of the 1999 flu epidemic.

It is the people having difficulties that need to be studied, to discover why they are having problems and how they can be saved.

Firstly, don't put words in my mouth or make false accusations. At no time have I ever stated that I believe that most people who contract COVID-19 die of the virus. However, unlike you I don't advocate killing off as many people as quickly as possible (except yourself, of course) in order to achieve a herd immunity that to date is far from being proven as even being achievable. Adequate herd immunity will only be assured if and when a viable vaccine is created and billions of doses can be administered around the world. If natural herd immunity is even achievable the death toll and cost to society would be astronomical. Of course, only monsters who somehow erroneously think such an outcome won't effect them personally want to see this happen.

What 1999 flu epidemic death toll are you even talking about exactly? We are dealing with a full on pandemic here! The initial mortality rate for COVID-19 was estimated at 3.4% as of March by the WHO. It was logged as high as 4.9% in Wuhan before it subsided. The final Case Fatality (CFR) for COVID is currently estimated at 3.3%! By comparison the yearly mortality rate for seasonal influenza in the US is only 0.1%. World wide 290,000 to 650,000 people die from influenza each year. So, even if the final mortality rate for COVID-19 comes in a 1% or 2% we will see unimaginable magnitudes more people die before this is over compared to the flu. The COVID-19 case fatality rate in the UK is currently 14.38% as of May 11th!!!!. But that is not enough for you so you advocate for more!

Despite your habit of appointing yourself as Mr. Know-It-All about every subject on earth who's role is to "splain" everything about everything to all of us, at this point we do not know how the COVID-19 pandemic will play out. Just yesterday a prominent US infectious disease expert on the evening news explained that we are "only just now beginning to enter the second inning" of a situation that will be with us for years! She cautioned that the herd immunity theory for this virus has not been confirmed as of yet and that a viable vaccine may not be ready for mass production and inoculation for years, if ever! You repeatedly act like you've got this all figured out which is rather curious and quite laughable because even the world's leading experts admit to not yet understanding the many aspects and consequences of this new pathogen.

As for the centenarians who have managed to survive infection with COVID-19, despite what you say, they are apparently NOT like everyone else. The elderly usually have weakened immune systems, but not these people. Among other things they have enhanced T cell and B cell responses that many younger people often lack. That is among the reasons there are increasing numbers of scientists and researchers exploring the field of biomedical gerontology and anti-aging. In this case, among a number of others, the immunological theory of aging, the free radical theory, the genetics theory, and the DNA theories of aging are significant. If you had bothered to read any of the news reports I posted about these remarkable people over 100 years old who survived COVID-19 you would know that their bodies quickly shrugged off pneumonia and all the other serious aspects of the disease despite having multiple co-morbidities going into it. And it has been their innate ability to survive cancers, heart disease, flu and all sorts of other maladies in the first place that offer clues for the health and longevity of everyone! And THIS is the reason researchers find reason to study these people who survive what many younger individuals generally don't, even and including novel, highly infectious, deadly viruses.

 

[Dashmellow]

How many need to die ?

66 million with 10% mortality = 6 million dead !

Currently 14.38% UK Case Fatality Rate (CFR) 66 million x 14.38% = 9,490,800 dead!

To put that in perspective over 50 million people died worldwide from the 1918 Spanish Flu by the time it was over and a quarter of the British population were affected. The death toll was 228,000 in Britain.

 

[Nigel]

Currently 14.8% UK Case Fatality Rate (CFR) = 9,768, 000 dead!

That is a totally rubbish number!
But you probably know that, I hope so anyway!

The current UK death toll from covid-19 is 0.05% of the population with the peak infection rate having been passed at the beginning of last month, so we are well on the way to the end.

 

[kamkar]

Denmark is throwing a big open air corona party soon, and everyone are invited
The latest news is as the projected 20.000 tests a day get under way, the people detected sick and not able to properly isolate at home for some reason,,,,, will be put up in the empty hotels on the taxpayers dime.
So maybe now is the time to visit Denmark and get sick, not least if you are one of the people that dont really get off bad from the virus, so free hotel - free food free service.
The keep distance,,,, distance have now been lowered to just 1 M

 

[Nigel]

will be put up in the empty hotels on the taxpayers dime.

Is that like spending some time on a cruise ship?


How much herd immunity do we need?

Herd immunity may only need 10-20 per cent of people to be infected

Since mid-March there has been an assumption that herd immunity against Covid-19 would not be achieved until around 60 per cent of the population has been infected. It is a figure which gave rise to the now-famous paper by Professor Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, which claimed that a herd...

www.spectator.co.uk

 

[jokiin]

That is a totally rubbish number!
But you probably know that, I hope so anyway!

The current UK death toll from covid-19 is 0.05% of the population with the peak infection rate having been passed at the beginning of last month, so we are well on the way to the end.

two different sets of numbers, case fatality rate is not the population

But you probably know that, I hope so anyway!

 

[Nigel]

two different sets of numbers, case fatality rate is not the population

"case fatality rate" is not the infection fatality rate either, so the maths to produce the "9,768, 000 dead!" is completely invalid.
And even if it was "infection fatality rate", it would still be wrong, because herd immunity does not occur at 100% infection rate. As in my previous post, some people think it may only need 10-20%.

 

[jokiin]

"case fatality rate" is not the infection fatality rate either, so the maths to produce the "9,768, 000 dead!" is completely invalid.

your numbers are also wrong as it assumes the entire population has had it already, we're nowhere near the end of this to be able to make a tally either way, I'm sure you know that already

I doubt the 'some people' that consider 10~20% is all that is needed for herd immunity, it doesn't need 100% but saying only 20% would do it is a stretch

 

[Dashmellow]

that is a totally rubbish number!
But you probably know that, I hope so anyway!

The current UK death toll from covid-19 is 0.05% of the population with the peak infection rate having been passed at the beginning of last month, so we are well on the way to the end.

I believe your number is bogus too but you are missing the point, probably intentionally. Like @old4570, I was simply offering that figure merely as an illustration.

Of course, unsurprisingly, you focus on this brief illustrative post but completely ignore my 635 word reply to your initial post about the centenarians who survived COVID-19.

Nevertheless, rather than listen to you I will go with the percentage CFR -case fatality rate number I quoted and linked to from the CEBM - The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine - at the University of Oxford, ......you know, that particular 924 year old august institution in Britain.

The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) = mortality in the UK is 14.38% as of today! That's an insanely high number and indeed it is the third highest on the list. Since you are so fond of arrogantly and condescendingly comparing the UK to the USA, you should note that the United States is 20th down on the list as of today at 5.9%, CFR. Not a good number to be sure, but certainly not in your UK league.

At this point, Nigel I'm really about done with this particular unpleasant interaction with you except to say one last thing.

I posted those news items about those eleven people from around the world between the ages of 102 and 108 who miraculously had the constitutions to survive infection with the COVID-19 virus even in some cases conquering serious cases of pneumonia, because it warmed my heart and inspired me and gave me a bit of hope and it gave me some joy, and I thought perhaps others might feel the same way.

And joy is certainly something we could all use a little bit of right about now considering the current state of affairs in this pandemic ridden, toxic world we are living in these days.

But not YOU! JOY is apparently not something in your playbook. Instead Nigel, you are literally the only person here on the forum who would use a story like this as yet another opportunity to pick another petty, self righteous, know-it-all, but completely empty spat dismissing the entire burgeoning field of gerontological biomedical research because somehow you think you know better and you always need to present yourself like you are somehow the smartest guy in the room.

It is a shame really, but one for all to see.

The way you seem so indifferent to human lives, one can't help but come away with the impression that you have few if any friends, family, loved ones, extended family or elders in your life who would surely end up as eventual victims in the "herd immunity' CULL from the COVID-19 virus you so vehemently promote. And that is indeed a sad, sad commentary.

 

[Nigel]

your numbers are also wrong as it assumes the entire population has had it already, we're nowhere near the end of this to be able to make a tally either way, I'm sure you know that already

I doubt the 'some people' that consider 10~20% is all that is needed for heard immunity, it doesn't need 100% but saying only 20% would do it is a stretch

Are we "nowhere near the end"? Or are you guessing?

I think it is clear that in the large cities where most people use public transport, the figure required is a lot higher than in more remote places, as that article suggests, so some countries will need more than others. If 66% was needed in Wuhan, why not 20% for UK? Faeroe Islands, Isle of Man, Mayotte, Falkland Islands have all come to a stop with case numbers at between 0.37% and 0.39% of the population, we don't know the immunity level, but it is unlikely to be more than 10% immunity.