COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

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I've had an Emu burger and it tasted good. A lot like beef, but with something like a chicken flavor with it. Oddly enough, this wasn't at a fancy restaurant, but a small grill out in the country which was the only store for miles around. The farm behind it raised Emu's and you could watch them as you ate. I remember it was pricey and took 30 minutes from ordering till it was served and they weren't very busy. Went by there years later and the farm had stopped raising the birds so no more Emu burgers, but the regular foods were still available.

Phil
 
We always order our weekly groceries online to be delivered to our house. That's usually just for convenience, however at times like this it's also a form of social distancing. It saves us from having to go into the store and fight over the toilet roll and hand soap.

Last weekend we received almost everything we ordered. It will be interesting to see if there are any shortages in this morning's delivery. Should I disinfect everything before I put it away in the fridge and cupboards?!
 
having followed up the italian situation, seeing other countries doing exactly the same without anybody learning it's really weird.
It's like watching the same movie unfolding, same reaction, same debate between deniers "it's like a flu" and nothing being done save for having decision reversed in a matter of hours.

Only people doing great are preppers, granted they did not retreat into their bunker/cabin ALREADY infected by the virus.
Thus American Hikers beware, you might be shot at should you wonder unknowingly near their retreat.
 
Well it ain't blown up here in SC yet, but the numbers of cases are increasing. There's a shortage of test kits which is skewing the results. Damn few people are getting tested and regardless of what anyone says you cannot get tested unless your doctor orders it, so all the hype we're being fed is meaningless BS. We're told the declaration of a "National Emergency" is to release funding, but wait- who's holding the funds back? Nobody, the declaration is to allow areas to be locked down in quarantine by FEMA. Fasten your seat belts Americans, there's turbulence ahead and we're flying blind right into it :eek:

As you all know I live on the outskirts of a major metropolitan area in the USA. After seeing how virulent this was in China, who are able to more tightly control their population than we are, I expected things to turn out bad here too so I began stocking up for this weeks ago. Nothing crazy, just some extra regular food and household needs along with some gloves and N95 masks, about enough to manage a couple weeks in and close to home if that became necessary. But I've been getting around and paying attention: toward the more densely populated areas the shelves are bare of TP, water, disinfectants, and packaged/canned foods that people usually buy for hurricanes etc. The further out you go, the better your chances are on finding these goods, but much is still in short supply- especially TP and disinfectants. At every store you see worried people grabbing whatever they can get in quantities more than what any sane person would just because they can get the stuff. Most of what's left are 'premium' brands; the cheaper items folks usually buy are gone. Nobody's fighting over the last can of beans on the shelf yet but I expect that will change in the next week. I'm going out shopping tomorrow more to see what's happening than to get anything- thank goodness they're not hoarding blue jeans because that's my biggest need :LOL:

I'm not sure how to best handle this. China's tight lockdowns have worked in slowing the spread- you can't argue their success, but that will be near impossible here for many reasons. "Herd immunity" seems to me like you're saying "we're going to just let this run it's course and kill lots of good people needlessly so that the survivors can survive better". That's like playing the lottery with human lives and I can't abide with that way of thinking even if it does work- which it might not. All that any of us can do is to take steps to best protect ourselves. I'm sitting back here watching and ready to stay home for awhile if and when the time seems to call for that, which so far hasn't happened. But I expect such a time may come, and soon. I've got several unfinished projects to while away my time then so it won't be a problem for me if it comes to that- a good justification for my normally being a procrastinator :ROFLMAO:

Phil
 
South Corea and Taiwan have done a pretty good fight without those supertight restriction which China did.
They are more suitable examples for other democratic country without going to dictatorial ways.
Don't understand the "herd strategy": hospital will be overrun, the surviving herd will still need functional hospital for other issues (like car accidents and stuff)
 
TBH I haven't looked deeply into what S.Korea and Taiwan are doing. I do know that once the virus gets out into the larger community there's no controlling it which is what has happened in Italy and some other places. It has to be identified and acted on quickly or you lose almost all the chances you have to control anything about it.

It is those who did not plan for something like this who will surffer the worst. And we didn't plan here in America; in fact our current "idiot-in-office" dismantled the planning mechanism for pandemics back in 2018 simply because the previous holder of that position implemented it- politics and hate over what is good for my nation and it's people. And he claims he's not responsible for that.

Phil
 
Don't understand the "herd strategy":
That is just what happens with every cold, flu, etc, and even things like measles, it spreads throughout the population until enough people have immunity that it can't spread any more and so dies out. Measles is a bit different in that we use vaccines, but we still need 95%+ immunity to stop it spreading, otherwise it keeps killing people, and there is absolutely nothing we can do to stop it other than get immunity or stay isolated permanently.

The hospital issue is seperate, that is about keeping the rate of infection low enough that the hospitals can cope, if everyone catches it at the same time then no hospital system could ever cope, it needs to be spread out, so the rate at which people are infected needs to be managed.
 
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So if the "herd strategy" really worked, then by now we should have almost no seasonal colds, flus etc., yet they still exist as bad as always. Sorry, but I'm not convinced.

Phil
 
We always order our weekly groceries online to be delivered to our house. That's usually just for convenience, however at times like this it's also a form of social distancing. It saves us from having to go into the store and fight over the toilet roll and hand soap.

Last weekend we received almost everything we ordered. It will be interesting to see if there are any shortages in this morning's delivery. Should I disinfect everything before I put it away in the fridge and cupboards?!
No point disinfecting most things, leave them in a dry cupboard for a couple of days and the virus will be dead, you could quarantine them for 3 days if you want to be extra cautious. Stuff that goes in the fridge is different, the cool damp conditions will keep the virus viable, not much chance of catching the virus from that, but 20 seconds of soap and water for the cheese etc. does make some sense. And make sure the delivery guy stays outside and keeps 1m+ distance from everybody, and wash your hands after you are done.
 
So if the "herd strategy" really worked, then by now we should have almost no seasonal colds, flus etc., yet they still exist as bad as always. Sorry, but I'm not convinced.

Phil
The problem with colds and flu is that they spread through the north in our winter, then spread through the south in Australia's winter, and by the time they return to the north for our next winter, they have changed, and we need to develop immunity again. It generally takes each species a few years to evolve it's weapons against our immunity as it travels around the world, but there are a number of them going around so we get some version each year. This virus will be no different, except that with its rapid spread, there is a chance that everyone will get immunity before it evolves new defenses, so it is possible it will die out completely, far from certain though, it may keep coming around regularly for years, just like the flu does.
 
I've had an Emu burger and it tasted good. A lot like beef, but with something like a chicken flavor with it. Oddly enough, this wasn't at a fancy restaurant, but a small grill out in the country which was the only store for miles around. The farm behind it raised Emu's and you could watch them as you ate. I remember it was pricey and took 30 minutes from ordering till it was served and they weren't very busy. Went by there years later and the farm had stopped raising the birds so no more Emu burgers, but the regular foods were still available.

Phil
We used to have an Emu farm across the valley, really friendly birds, always came to say hello when you passed. All the UK emu seem to have been replaced by Llamas these days though, also a few Alpaca around the UK, although that is mainly for the fleece.
 
Everything evolves including flus, and with this one there have been some documented cases of re-infection, so the "herd strategy" isn't going to have the intended effect. My guess at this point is that if the UK tries it, they're going to have the highest numbers of infections and the epidemic will last longer there too. Time will tell, but to me that's risking too many lives when there are other strategies which have proven to work at least reasonably well. The UK is in as much trouble as the rest of us, and perhaps worse.

Phil
 
there have been some documented cases of re-infection,
Don't think we need to worry about those, as long as they stay the minority and not the majority. And as long as the people who get infected twice only get infected twice and not continuously then even for them it is just an inconvenience!
 
FYI.
IF ! you plan to travel to Denmark to give me a million dollars cuz i am such a nice guy :)
Well you will have to put those in a bank account to make some interest for a while, cuz from tomorrow at noon ( 9 hours from now ) Denmark are closed on all borders for none Danes.
Only goods will be allowed to pass the border, no planes - no trains - no ships with people in them.
Around 100,000 Danes are still out there in the world on holiday i assume, we need to get them home soon, they have been urged to head home at once.
Denmark is doing really well so far, the 4th most infected country in the world (by % of population), yet you haven't had a single death. Seems like your health system is working really well :)

Italy is 1st, with twice your infection rate, but they have 1266 dead.

UK is 28th most infected, but we have 11 dead.

USA is 38th, with 50 dead, but lack of testing means 38th is highly unlikely to be accurate!

Maybe Vikings don't die from it, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Iceland and Finland are all ahead of UK on % infections, but only 2 deaths between them. Not sure if Greenland is included in Denmark or if it has zero infections.

Norway is the 2nd most infected country in the world, with 1 death.

Looks like the Celts are doing OK too.
 
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Data not updated yet (with the fast pace things are happening, just to give u and idea).
Guandong China is a southern province, bordering Hong Kong(where Zhenzhen is) a bit far from Hubei province, in the North, where the outbreak happened.test per capita.jpg
 
That is just what happens with every cold, flu, etc, and even things like measles, it spreads throughout the population until enough people have immunity that it can't spread any more and so dies out. Measles is a bit different in that we use vaccines, but we still need 95%+ immunity to stop it spreading, otherwise it keeps killing people, and there is absolutely nothing we can do to stop it other than get immunity or stay isolated permanently.
.....
As of now, there is not such a thing as "herd immunity" for coronavirus because with no vaccines and re-infectation (which tougher outcome than first infection) half ot those 60% who got infected will go to hospital and will need ICU for 2 weeks or more.
"....
But herd immunity is typically only viewed as a preventive strategy in vaccination programmes. If we don’t have a vaccine – as we don’t for COVID-19 – achieving herd immunity would require a significant proportion of the population to be infected and recover from COVID-19. So what would this mean for the spread of the disease in the UK?

The percentage of the population that needs to be immune to enable herd immunity depends on how transmissible a disease is. This is measured by the term R0, which is how many new infections each case will generate. For COVID-19, the R0 is estimated to be 3.28, though studies are still ongoing and this number will probably change. This means that for herd immunity, about 70% of the UK population would need to be immune to COVID-19.....

Achieving herd immunity would require well over 47 million people to be infected in the UK. Current estimates are that COVID-19 has a 2.3% case-fatality rate and a 19% rate of severe disease. This means that achieving herd immunity to COVID-19 in the UK could result in the deaths of more a million people with a further eight million severe infections requiring critical care."



Too many people are using a wishful thinking which, up to now, led all of us where we are now.
It does not work.
Numbers are numbers. Doctors will be infected too, the health system will collapse under such strategy.
 
Achieving herd immunity would require well over 47 million people to be infected in the UK. Current estimates are that COVID-19 has a 2.3% case-fatality rate and a 19% rate of severe disease.
If you keep reading theconversation, he ends up with "the fatality rate for the otherwise healthy portion of the population may still be 0.5% or higher. This means that even in this unlikely “best case” scenario we would still be looking at more than 236,000 deaths. " - 4x a bad year of the flu.

I think he still being pessimistic, since using his figures would make Denmark's current death rate of 0% extremely remarkable, and UK has more in common with Denmark than China. Norway's 1 death in the 2nd most infected country in the world also needs explanation, you can't just go on the Chinese figures, because there is a major difference.
 
Well it ain't blown up here in SC yet, but the numbers of cases are increasing. There's a shortage of test kits which is skewing the results. Damn few people are getting tested and regardless of what anyone says you cannot get tested unless your doctor orders it, so all the hype we're being fed is meaningless BS. We're told the declaration of a "National Emergency" is to release funding, but wait- who's holding the funds back? Nobody, the declaration is to allow areas to be locked down in quarantine by FEMA. Fasten your seat belts Americans, there's turbulence ahead and we're flying blind right into it :eek:

As you all know I live on the outskirts of a major metropolitan area in the USA. After seeing how virulent this was in China, who are able to more tightly control their population than we are, I expected things to turn out bad here too so I began stocking up for this weeks ago. Nothing crazy, just some extra regular food and household needs along with some gloves and N95 masks, about enough to manage a couple weeks in and close to home if that became necessary. But I've been getting around and paying attention: toward the more densely populated areas the shelves are bare of TP, water, disinfectants, and packaged/canned foods that people usually buy for hurricanes etc. The further out you go, the better your chances are on finding these goods, but much is still in short supply- especially TP and disinfectants. At every store you see worried people grabbing whatever they can get in quantities more than what any sane person would just because they can get the stuff. Most of what's left are 'premium' brands; the cheaper items folks usually buy are gone. Nobody's fighting over the last can of beans on the shelf yet but I expect that will change in the next week. I'm going out shopping tomorrow more to see what's happening than to get anything- thank goodness they're not hoarding blue jeans because that's my biggest need :LOL:

I'm not sure how to best handle this. China's tight lockdowns have worked in slowing the spread- you can't argue their success, but that will be near impossible here for many reasons. "Herd immunity" seems to me like you're saying "we're going to just let this run it's course and kill lots of good people needlessly so that the survivors can survive better". That's like playing the lottery with human lives and I can't abide with that way of thinking even if it does work- which it might not. All that any of us can do is to take steps to best protect ourselves. I'm sitting back here watching and ready to stay home for awhile if and when the time seems to call for that, which so far hasn't happened. But I expect such a time may come, and soon. I've got several unfinished projects to while away my time then so it won't be a problem for me if it comes to that- a good justification for my normally being a procrastinator :ROFLMAO:

Phil
Stay safe @SawMaster we need some intelligent people to survive.
 
about italy death rate there might be some explanation:
- decided to test ONLY people with symptoms (hence rejecting all infected without)= increase the death rate
- italia cluster spread was helped by people infecting hospital staff and doctors= older and weaker people infected
- higher median age in italy than s.corea or china
- different way of recording death (most of those people who died had other 1-2-3 ilnesses, weak old people).

In south corea 2/3 of those infected belonged to the sect, hence not really a cluster of old, il people.
 
Two casualties have been reported in India, one in Delhi. Stage III here will be a disaster!

For once I've been happy that it was getting close to 30°C and then today it rained and hailed.
 
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