COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

[SawMaster]

The dust masks need a limit because they are going to grow bacteria and fungi after a bit of use, carry on using them for days and you could end up in hospital with infected lungs without ever having encountered covid-19!

This goes back to what I said of proper usage It's not rocket science by any stretch of the imagination, and most importantly it's not a substitute for social distancing. which must be practiced wherever and whenever possible. Had the health organizations gotten this universally straight from the beginning there would be much less problems with masks, but instead we're now getting a late recommendation which is essentially being based on common-sense as much as actual testing. And there was not really a need for the testing before beginning recommendation, as mask tests have been done many times before regarding very similar things to Covid-19.

The masks I have are cheap unrated pre-formed 'dust' masks, likely would rate no better than N80 under testing BUT they're still at least somewhat effective (nothing short of a 'bio-suit' is fully effective) and they're far better than the typical cloth surgical masks which don't have a nose-clip. I do re-use mine several times, but again how you do that makes all the difference. I only don mine when I'm about to step out of the vehicle and remove it on re-entering. This exposes it to minimal moisture which is dry before it's next use and it's in free air and sunlight while not in use so that no molds build up. As far as shedding particles from the surface, most of that will occur very shortly after putting it on, between parking lot and store distant from anyone else, so again it's not as big an issue as it could be. It's really all common sense at elementary school science class level

If I have a gripe on how the world's health organizations have handled this pandemic it's that they did not provide one common voice, but often gave directly conflicting advice so that nobody knew for sure who to listen to or what to do This is the biggest change we need before the next pandemic hits, and if the Medical world will put enough effort into achieving this it can happen, even if that means ignoring what one's government wants you to do or say People will respect and stand behind life-saving Doctors far more strongly than they will stand behind life-strangling politicians. Doctors need to do this and governments need to get out of the way and let it happen.

Phil

 

[Nigel]

This goes back to what I said of proper usage It's not rocket science by any stretch of the imagination, and most importantly it's not a substitute for social distancing. which must be practiced wherever and whenever possible.

The only scientific mask studies I've seen were measuring filtration in a totally artificial laboratory test setup, which really doesn't tell us much. What we need are comparisons in infections between groups using them and groups not using them, so far nobody has managed to pick out any good evidence to support the mask use, even though they have quite good data for aeroplane and cruise ship infections, both using and not using masks. It seems from the contact tracing that aeroplanes do not spread covid-19, even without masks, while ships seem to spread it extremely well even with masks!

I went to the supermarket yesterday, probably saw about 100 customers and 15 staff. There was 1 customer wearing a mask, 2 staff.
Is that bad? What I also noticed was that unlike in video I see from USA, everybody was maintaining good distance, typically 4 meters, and there was a good breeze from the ventilation. If everyone was forced to use masks then I'm sure the masks would replace the 4 meters, and I'm also sure the 4 meters is far more effective than a mask would ever be. As long as everybody with cold symptoms stays at home, and the infection rate is falling, I much prefer the distance over masks.

When it comes to contact tracing, they are interested in contacts where you are closer than 2 meters for more than 15 minutes. That is a situation where a normal mask is unlikely to help, especially a home made cloth one. If that is the real requirement then walking through a supermarket with everyone maintaining 4 meters most of the time and only getting close for very short periods is not going to be an issue. The requirement is only to keep R under 1, then the virus will disappear, something much of the USA is struggling with even with their mask use, including your own state where the hot spots are clearly still expanding and something needs to change to avoid an exponential increase:

 

[SawMaster]

Again what masks do best is reduce transmission, so it is very tough to come up with anything close to precise and accurate numbers since not everyone being exposed equally will catch the virus equally or as often. But studying the trending (which is about the only study method which can be applied here with any level of accuracy) clearly shows a significant difference between similar areas and situations where mask usage is high versus where it is low. They clearly are effective in reducing transmission but that takes a near-universal level of use to have a very significant difference. It's an all or nothing decision where anything less than all isn't going to have much effect. And in doing trending studies it is very important that you're considering only very alike situations; it will not tell you anything to relate sparsely populated and cold Greenland to densely populated and tropical Malaysia for an example. And if you look more than superficially at what almost all the organizations involved here are now saying, you will see where they have done just this to reach their conclusions, which are most certainly correct. Mask usage can make a very big difference where it's universal, so that is what we all should be doing everywhere And regards this, it is only part of the solution so we must be equally vigilant regards everything else we should be doing like social distancing and disinfecting

Yes, that hotspot map of my state is accurate and it is a sad reflection on what people here are like For awhile there was high mask use and much social distancing, but now this has diminished considerably. Many (maybe most?) people here seem to think that this is mostly over and that they aren't likely to be affected, partially because the Governor has reopened things and partially because even how deadly this disease can be, very few people actually know someone who has or has had it. So they think it's safe to go back to 'normal' now, and in doing this they are creating the spike in cases we've now got. Of course it's alweays 'someone else' at fault in their minds. I even know a few people (NOT my friends) who think that the whole pandemic is fake or overblown and is an effort by (fill in the blank with whoever you suspect most) to condition people for the coming enslavement of us all Sad to say that we have a very high percentage of excessively stupid people living here which is easily noticed in taking a drive almost anywhere in my State. Glad I've got cams all around but they don't prevent my being affected by the rampant stupidity of others I live with

And worse for me is that I'm in the area on the upper left where things are now the worst and still rising at the highest rates yet seen in this State Makes me want to beat the crap out of our Governor who has blindly followed our President into not looking at anything unpleasant and to plugging his ears to things he doesn't want to hear. Very childish to do this and while it can be an understandable response in children it is totally unacceptable behavior for adults. Especiall;y adults in leadership positions. Worse is that only the Governor has the authority to make lockdown and re-opening decisions in my State. All the local leaders in this area clearly see what is happening and want a better response but are not being allowed to do it. We clearly are not going to do well in reopening things given the current methods and regulations we have in place here. I equate the refusal to allow a proper local response to being the same as accessory to murder, for it is beyond obvious that not allowing us to steer our own fate locally is needlessly killing people

TBH I expected that we'd end up in this worst-case-scenario here compared to the rest of the State because we're directly between the two largest cities in this part of the world- Atlanta GA and Charlotte NC- and as would be expected there's a huge amount of people and goods passing between them with many stopping here for fuel or food as they travel. Also we're now an "inland port of entry" where immigrants and goods first enter the US, opening yet another door to possible infections. Plus our own population travels locally more than in most other areas ofvthe State due to how business and residential growth has occurred here. And in that growth, our local downtown Greenville has seen a huge and continuing boom in the numbers of new residences being built, possibly more than in the entire rest of the State combined, coupled with an equal boom in small intimate businesses downtown catering to food, drinking, shopping, and entertaining which are socially intimate by their very nature. That which has built us economically here is exactly the very thing most against us regards this pandemic We are totally unlike most of the State in this yet the government refuses to make any distinction for that nor will allow us to do that for ourselves. In short, we're completely and totally screwed, and unfortunately that includes me.

I totally expect that if I am able, I will be writing a quick goodbye to my friends here when- not if- I catch this disease so needlessly and preventably because such is my normal luck and nobody here where I live is doing anything to lessen that chance at all.

Phil

 

[Nigel]

Also we're now an "inland port of entry" where immigrants and goods first enter the US, opening yet another door to possible infections.

That does not really matter, yes it will bring in a few cases, but if R is below 1 then the new infections will all die out, while if R is above 1 then you have a problem that needs fixing urgently and a few extra cases coming in is not going to make much difference. When the hot spots are expanding like that, if you want to avoid a New York style exponential rise, then action is needed, and not the "reopening" type!

At this point, with vaccines likely to be on the way, you should be looking at Australia for guidance.

 

[SawMaster]

you should be looking at Australia for guidance.

I am looking everywhere for guidance except from my State Government and up, for they have clearly made grievous errors and done nothing to admit and correct them.

Phil

 

[kamkar]

Government officials are never wrong, not even if you catch them with their hands down the till and a wad of bills in it.
It is very unfortunate it is this way, but it is the same all over the world.

 

[Nigel]

And worse for me is that I'm in the area on the upper left where things are now the worst and still rising at the highest rates yet seen in this State Makes me want to beat the crap out of our Governor who has blindly followed our President into not looking at anything unpleasant and to plugging his ears to things he doesn't want to hear. Very childish to do this and while it can be an understandable response in children it is totally unacceptable behavior for adults. Especiall;y adults in leadership positions.

Ahh, it is all Mexico's fault:

Returning to one of his most consistent political ploys, President Donald Trump is reportedly looking to scapegoat Mexico for spikes in US coronavirus cases.

The messaging strategy of blaming Mexico instead of states reopening businesses was discussed at length during a recent White House Coronavirus Task Force meeting, according to the Associated Press.

Two administration officials told the AP that the idea was bandied about at the task force's Thursday meeting in the White House Situation Room, with attempts made to tie Mexico to outbreaks as far north as North Carolina.

Trump is reportedly looking to blame Mexico for new coronavirus spikes in the US

Despite non-essential travel between still being banned, the Trump is looking to deflect blame and pin coronavirus spikes on travel from Mexico.

www.businessinsider.com

I don't understand the strategy though, even if it was Mexico's fault, which it isn't, you still need to do something about it!

It is no better than blaming China for all the USA cases because China didn't stop the virus, even though China more or less wiped it out before it took off in the USA and has 0.85% of the deaths of the USA corrected for population!

 

[SawMaster]

We have a somewhat large Hispanic population here, and at the beginning and middle of the local outbreak it was noticed that there were far fewer cases among them than with other demographic groups. That has changed with the recent 'spike' and it's now running rampant in their community at levels above other ethnic groups,. Not sure what may have caused the delay or why it has coincided with the local 'spike' here, but it's clear that if their community had brought the infection we would have seen this effect happen much earlier. They are showing an effect- they are not the cause of it, but it's blameless victims instead

Phil

 

[Nigel]

UK Figures Update: Covid-19 deaths for 2020 have overtaken flu deaths for 2020, but are still below the 5 year average flu deaths. Seems unlikely the covid-19 will catch up with the average flu. The lockdown appears to have reduced flu deaths to 60% of the 5 year average, but I suspect many of them are misdiagnosed covid-19, so the total deaths for the year will now start to return towards normal, unlikely to make it all the way back before the end of the year. We've had 8 weeks when deaths were above normal, the rest of the year they have been slightly below normal and will probably stay below normal for the rest of the year. I'm sure some countries are going to end up with less deaths than normal this year - covid-19 will have saved lives. Maybe there is a lesson there for how the world should be handling flu outbreaks.

 

[jokiin]

Maybe there is a lesson there for how the world should be handling flu outbreaks.

in Asian countries it's very common to see people wearing masks when they're unwell and out and about to prevent passing on whatever they've got, that's a habit that I think western countries would do well to adopt, I think at times people are a bit too relaxed about the flu and perhaps don't appreciate that there are those in the community that are more easily compromised by the flu, no doubt the social distancing and general focus on hygiene should have had some affect on transmission of flu in the community also during this period, hope people learn something out of all of this and it's not too easily forgotten over time

 

[Nigel]

in Asian countries it's very common to see people wearing masks when they're unwell and out and about to prevent passing on whatever they've got, that's a habit that I think western countries would do well to adopt, I think at times people are a bit too relaxed about the flu and perhaps don't appreciate that there are those in the community that are more easily compromised by the flu, no doubt the social distancing and general focus on hygiene should have had some affect on transmission of flu in the community also during this period, hope people learn something out of all of this and it's not too easily forgotten over time

Probably a lot better if people with flu self-isolate, rather than go out in public wearing a mask!

But it is also worth looking at keeping the other covid-19 measures, such as virus screens at supermarket checkouts, antiviral door handles, trolley handles, fuel pump handles etc., improved building ventilation systems that don't spread virus to everyone, etc. We used to to have widespread use of antibacterial door handles, made of copper/brass but we seem to have forgotten why and started using plastic/aluminium everywhere.

A lot of people die from flu, people of all ages, and it is likely that a lot of those deaths can be prevented quite easily. While covid-19 is quite likely to be wiped out permanently, any improvements for flu will save lives every year.

 

[Deleted member 46308]

We have a somewhat large Hispanic population here, and at the beginning and middle of the local outbreak it was noticed that there were far fewer cases among them than with other demographic groups. That has changed with the recent 'spike' and it's now running rampant in their community at levels above other ethnic groups,. Not sure what may have caused the delay or why it has coincided with the local 'spike' here, but it's clear that if their community had brought the infection we would have seen this effect happen much earlier. They are showing an effect- they are not the cause of it, but it's blameless victims instead

Phil

Thanks Phil. I don’t believe the Mexicans are the culprit here either. Maybe some Gringos are just looking for someone to blame.

 

[kamkar]

The blame army are always marched up ready for combat.

 

[SawMaster]

in Asian countries it's very common to see people wearing masks when they're unwell and out and about to prevent passing on whatever they've got, that's a habit that I think western countries would do well to adopt, I think at times people are a bit too relaxed about the flu and perhaps don't appreciate that there are those in the community that are more easily compromised by the flu, no doubt the social distancing and general focus on hygiene should have had some affect on transmission of flu in the community also during this period, hope people learn something out of all of this and it's not too easily forgotten over time

Quite possibly the most important post in this thread

Phil

 

[Deleted member 46308]

Quite possibly the most important post in this thread

Phil

Finally the voice of reason.

 

[SawMaster]

Finally the voice of reason.

Just my observation, all credit has to go to he who stated things so well: @jokiin

Phil

 

[Deleted member 46308]

Just my observation, all credit has to go to he who stated things so well: @jokiin

Phil

That was my intent; should have made that clear

 

[Nigel]

Production underway for 2 billion doses, many countries signing up, but no Denmark or Australia yet?

British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca has struck a deal to supply Europe with a coronavirus vaccine.

The Cambridge-based firm has agreed to dish out up to 400 million doses of its unproven jab in Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands.

Its AZD1222 vaccine, developed by Oxford University, is currently being trialled on more than 10,000 people and results are expected in August.

The firm also announced a licensing deal with the Serum Institute of India to provide 1 billion doses of the vaccine to low- and middle-income countries by 2021.

The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (Cepi) in Norway and Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, in Switzerland, will help manufacture 300 million globally accessible doses of the coronavirus vaccine this year.

AstraZeneca to supply Europe with up to 400 million doses of Oxford University’s vaccine at no profit

www.astrazeneca.com

 

[kamkar]

We make our own, have to tie in too with the brainwash stimulants used on the Danes for decades, otherwise we all end up as a bunch of drooling bodies flopping around on the floor.

 

[Nigel]

We make our own, have to tie in too with the brainwash stimulants used on the Danes for decades, otherwise we all end up as a bunch of drooling bodies flopping around on the floor.

Seems to have been a bit of tension in Germany recently, almost as though UK is now outside EU after Brexit so Germany wasn't going to sign up for the UK-Swedish vaccine, especially after USA and Brazil joined in!

Corona-Impfstoff: Deutschland bislang ohne Kontingente

Sobald ein Impfstoff gegen Corona vorliegt, da sind sich Experten sicher, beginnt der weltweite Verteilungskampf. Die Bundesregierung hat sich aber bislang keine Kontingente gesichert, wie aus einer Antwort des Bundesforschungsministerium (BMBF) hervorgeht. Zuerst hatte die Frankfurter...

www.apotheke-adhoc.de

Bayaz asked the FAZ that the federal government and France quickly agree on a strategy. The aim must be that the vaccine is not only developed and tested in Europe, but also that sufficient quantities are available to people as quickly as possible.