COVID-19 Coronavirus Thread

[Dashmellow]

"The International Council of Nurses (ICN) has revealed that a total of 1,500 nurses across 44 countries are believed to have lost their lives to Coronavirus."

OK, that is 1500 / 44 = 34 nurses per country.

The UK has half a million nurses, so 34/0.5m = 0.0068% have died of Coronavirus, while 0.068% of the total population have died of Coronavirus, so nurses have 1/10th the death rate of the average person...

Since the very beginning of the pandemic your callousness towards the loss of other people's lives has been just appalling!

And no, nurses are not "dying at similar rates as people in other professions". Frontline COVID unit nurses are perhaps the most at risk of any other profession including other health care workers as nurses provide direct care to patients and have to be up close and personal for extended periods of time for a lot of what they do. You on the other hand have publicly admitted to being afraid to touch the mail your postman delivers.



https://www.healthline.com/health-n...ed-from-covid-19-this-doctor-is-honoring-them

https://www.npr.org/2020/05/27/8634...e-in-covid-19-death-among-health-care-workers

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/938266

 

[kamkar]

I would rise wages for nurses and doctors ASO in times like this, even if at least doctors here already have unreasonable high wages, like 1 hour they make what a person with a similar time frame education need a whole day / days to make.
Like say the engineer on the hospital that fix the ventilators ASO when they are broke ( so also a person whose job are crucial for the health and survival of other people )
But i am also a more honorable person than the scum the Danish people keep voting for.

I respect people that rush into Africa to treat / help Ebola victims, where if it go bad you more or less hemorrhage with blood pouring from every orifice in the human body.

 

[Nigel]

And no, nurses are not "dying at similar rates as people in other professions".

According to the official investigation:

Among healthcare workers, rates of death involving COVID-19 were not found to be statistically different to rates of death involving Covid-19 in the general working population, with 10.2 deaths per 100,000 males (43 deaths) and 4.8 deaths per 100,000 females (63 deaths).

NHS staff no more likely to die from coronavirus, ONS analysis shows

Doctors and nurses do not have a higher coronavirus (Covid-19) mortality rate than others of the same age and sex, suggests new data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). However, those in social care, including care workers and home carers, have substantially higher death rates than...

healthcareleadernews.com

And the second official investigation:

Our report shows that a significant number of health and social care workers are dying during this pandemic. Overall the rate of deaths appears to be largely consistent with the number of healthcare workers in the population and the distributions by occupation and geography are largely as expected. However, individuals of black and minority ethnicity are notably over-represented in the data and conversely those working in the high risk specialties of anaesthesia and intensive care appear to be under-represented, most likely through good practice.

Exclusive: deaths of NHS staff from covid-19 analysed

The deaths of 119 NHS staff have been analysed by three leading clinicians. We present their findings here.

www.hsj.co.uk

 

[Dashmellow]

According to the official investigation:

NHS staff no more likely to die from coronavirus, ONS analysis shows

Doctors and nurses do not have a higher coronavirus (Covid-19) mortality rate than others of the same age and sex, suggests new data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). However, those in social care, including care workers and home carers, have substantially higher death rates than...

healthcareleadernews.com

And the second official investigation:

Exclusive: deaths of NHS staff from covid-19 analysed

The deaths of 119 NHS staff have been analysed by three leading clinicians. We present their findings here.

www.hsj.co.uk

What intentionally misleading nonsense! Those links you posted are from six months ago! The number of infected and the number of deaths among healthcare workers is far higher now.

According to the CDC’s latest count, more than 200,213 U.S. healthcare workers have now contracted the virus and 784 have died from COVID-19. These are only partial figures. Of course, this is US data only.

Dr. Claire Rezba, who has been documenting the deaths of healthcare workers who have died from COVID-19 also explains that her count of deaths stands at more than 1,200.

“I’d like [the public] to know that a minimum of 1,200 healthcare workers have died and that even this number is an undercount,” Rezba said. “Each person lost represents a loss of expertise and experience that can’t just be replaced.”

 

[kamkar]

25% of all Belgian nurses and doctors are down with corona,,,,, and still working if they can,,,,,,,,, i need a taking hat off smiley.
Quite a fed nurses have also been hit here, some also pretty bad with those nasty after effects.

 

[Nigel]

According to the CDC’s latest count, more than 200,213 U.S. healthcare workers have now contracted the virus and 784 have died from COVID-19. These are only partial figures. Of course, this is US data only.

Are you sure? 784 is only 0.3% of USA covid deaths, that would suggest a tiny proportion of the population are healthcare workers! Must be a lot higher...

 

[Dashmellow]

Are you sure? 784 is only 0.3% of USA covid deaths, that would suggest a tiny proportion of the population are healthcare workers! Must be a lot higher...

You, along with everyone else here would have read the very next sentence in my post where it says, "These are only partial figures."

You would also have seen the remarks from Dr. Claire Rezba who states, "that a minimum of 1,200 US healthcare workers have died and that even this number is an undercount,

Stop playing games, Nigel.

 

[Dashmellow]

August 26, 2020:

It is thanks to Boris that UK now has herd immunity and for us the epidemic is over.

Boris Johnson has just announced a lockdown in England to combat the spread of coronavirus. It will be in place until Dec 2 - All non-essential businesses closed - International travel banned except for work - No overnight stays - Travel within UK discouraged - No indoor gatherings.

Must be because of all the false positives!

 

[Indian]

I made a dash for home last week from Romania. I had my food with me and never had any contact with anyone on the way and filled up at gas stations where I could pay with a card at the pumps.
I got myself tested and the result was negative.
I will never try that stunt again.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[kamkar]

Just read the UK have passed 1 million infected, so they are in the big boys league now.

 

[Nigel]

Just read the UK have passed 1 million infected, so they are in the big boys league now.

Only because we are now counting people multiple times, every time they have a positive test instead of every time they get infected!

Nearly at the 0.5 tests per person total, a bit behind Denmark but we keep increasing the testing.

 

[Dashmellow]

Only because we are now counting people multiple times, every time they have a positive test instead of every time they get infected!

 

[Nigel]

When does USA count people, every positive test?

 

[Dashmellow]

When does USA count people, every positive test?

Not multiple times. That's not how epidemiology works.

 

[Dashmellow]

Only because we are now counting people multiple times, every time they have a positive test instead of every time they get infected!

So, you're suggesting this is the reason for the current lock down? And you're still maintaining that the UK has herd immunity and therefore the "epidemic" has been over for you guys since August?

 

[Nigel]

So, you're suggesting this is the reason for the current lock down?

No. That is the reason that it is impossible to see what is going on at the moment, unless you ignore the daily counts and look at other data such as excess death counts.

Tim Spector, Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King's College London, 29th October:

With a million people reporting weekly, we have the largest national survey and our estimates are in line with the ONS survey.
Data on covid-19 can be confusing for the public and we can't rely simply on confirmed cases or daily deaths, without putting them into context. Hospital admissions are rising as expected, but deaths are still average for the season. As we become citizen scientists it’s important to look at multiple sources to get a broader view. Trends can be different at the local level and our app allows users to monitor this themselves.

And you're still maintaining that the UK has herd immunity and therefore the "epidemic" has been over for you guys since August?

The UK got down to nearly zero cases at the end of June, then July and August were close to virus free. In September the universities started a new year and lots of students moved houses and broke the herd immunity, then most universities had outbreaks similar to the one in Nottingham that I posted about last week:

Most universities are now back to low level or well on the way back down, however some virus spread into the general population and it seems we currently have enough herd immunity to keep numbers flat, but not reduce them at any speed. The new lockdown, which is essentially closing the pubs, theaters and indoor visits for any reason other than work, is to bring the number of cases back down near zero before Christmas when everyone would like to get together. One problem with herd immunity preventing a high rate of spread is that it takes a long time to add enough extra immunity to bring the numbers down naturally. The lockdown is leaving schools, universities and most businesses open.

The NHS triage graph should be a good guide to what people are actually experiencing, and that shows that throughout October we have got nearly stuck at about twice the numbers that we had in July and August, if we continue to improve at the current rate then Christmas will need to be canceled:

Very difficult to see a relation between this graph and the daily infection numbers being reported recently, but this graph is real, accurate, consistent and unmanipulated data. The daily testing totals are most definitely not consistent since they have been continuously increasing the number of tests since June, the types of tests have changed, and recently they have started counting positive tests instead of infections! This graph does match the shape of the Nottingham graph above, with a time offset.

Interestingly, they always bring lockdowns in just after the peak, the national 7-day average for the daily testing appears to have just reached the peak. Of course it may go up again this week, but currently it looks to have gone flat.

 

[Nigel]

 

[kamkar]

The Aussies just pulled off a big fat 0 infected in 24 hours No worries.
This is the first time in 145 days, so about bloody time.

They will probably still have to enjoy summer "alone" or in smaller groups.

 

[Nigel]

The Aussies just pulled off a big fat 0 infected in 24 hours No worries.

They needed to count very carefully to manage it

• There were no locally acquired cases in Australia today. This is the first time that has happened since June 9.
• NSW has reported a case connected with a known cluster. This will be counted in Monday's figures.
• Victoria recorded zero cases, while NSW recorded four cases from overseas travellers.
• Queensland and Western Australia also had one case each who were returned travellers.

 

[Dashmellow]

No. That is the reason that it is impossible to see what is going on at the moment, unless you ignore the daily counts and look at other data such as excess death counts.

Tim Spector, Professor of Genetic Epidemiology at King's College London, 29th October:



The UK got down to nearly zero cases at the end of June, then July and August were close to virus free. In September the universities started a new year and lots of students moved houses and broke the herd immunity, then most universities had outbreaks similar to the one in Nottingham that I posted about last week:

Most universities are now back to low level or well on the way back down, however some virus spread into the general population and it seems we currently have enough herd immunity to keep numbers flat, but not reduce them at any speed. The new lockdown, which is essentially closing the pubs, theaters and indoor visits for any reason other than work, is to bring the number of cases back down near zero before Christmas when everyone would like to get together. One problem with herd immunity preventing a high rate of spread is that it takes a long time to add enough extra immunity to bring the numbers down naturally. The lockdown is leaving schools, universities and most businesses open.

The NHS triage graph should be a good guide to what people are actually experiencing, and that shows that throughout October we have got nearly stuck at about twice the numbers that we had in July and August, if we continue to improve at the current rate then Christmas will need to be canceled:
View attachment 53939
Very difficult to see a relation between this graph and the daily infection numbers being reported recently, but this graph is real, accurate, consistent and unmanipulated data. The daily testing totals are most definitely not consistent since they have been continuously increasing the number of tests since June, the types of tests have changed, and recently they have started counting positive tests instead of infections! This graph does match the shape of the Nottingham graph above, with a time offset.

Interestingly, they always bring lockdowns in just after the peak, the national 7-day average for the daily testing appears to have just reached the peak. Of course it may go up again this week, but currently it looks to have gone flat.

It has been truly fascinating to observe the contortions and machinations you put yourself through to paint a rosy picture of how severely the pandemic has affected the UK. You've been doing this since the very beginning of the outbreak, whether it is boastful false rhetoric in the face of a national crisis with pretentious assertions of alleged British prowess in your nation's handling of the situation, despite an initial tragic public health "herd immunity approach" blunder from your government, an odious toploftical attitude on display from you towards every other nation's experience with the pandemic, and an absolutely absurd denial about the tragic reality of the actual current situation in your country.

And now you are even desperately trying to explain away your ludicrous claim in late August that the pandemic was literally over in the UK due to an alleged herd immunity that never existed. (And still doesn't according to the Lancet and other authoritative sources) Between the Quarantine Raves, Airbnb COVID party houses, the pubs crowded with rowdy drunks, the ill considered 10 PM curfews that put hoards of people into the London tubes all at once, the second wave you are experiencing was inevitable. (and long predicted)

Reposting the same out of context charts you posted last week, insisting that most of the new cases are false positives, singling out smaller sections of the nation that may be doing better than others, denying and rationalizing the fact that your Prime Minister just imposed a severe national lock down in the face of an enormous spike in the disease (for an "epidemic you claimed was "over for us") and trying to put forth a case that somehow 46,717 dead to date from the virus is really somehow ok is just not going to cut it.

I would venture to say that the only person you're fooling here is yourself.



40% increase in cases (confirmed and probable) in two weeks time.
121% increase in deaths in the last two weeks period.


These charts are in dramatic uptrends. (by definition spikes)


Highest number of COVID-19 deaths in Europe.


Spike in ICU beds needed.

If you guys are lucky and the lock down serves its intended purpose you should slowly work your way through your current spike towards the end of February unless the green shaded uncertainty interval reaches the top its peak.



Spike in actual and projected ventilator use far exceeding the early days of the pandemic.


The UK has the unique honor, along with much of Europe of being designated a RED ZONE risk level, exceeding that of most of the rest of the world including the US, yet you would have everyone believe otherwise.


And finally, the UK, along with Belgium are projected to experience the highest total death count per 100K in the entire world by the first of January.

False positive test results do not cause this level of COVID-19 deaths; actual cases do.